2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3301 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:10 pm

It's interesting to note that the CFS, GEFS and EPS are all indicating continued rising motion, enhanced precipitation and low shear over the Caribbean into early November. November may be more active than normal.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1316747635135598597


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3302 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:33 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:It's interesting to note that the CFS, GEFS and EPS are all indicating continued rising motion, enhanced precipitation and low shear over the Caribbean into early November. November may be more active than normal.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1316747635135598597

That probably explains why the GFS and GFS-P have been showing some TC development in the Caribbean at the very end of their recent runs.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3303 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:12 pm

Is it me or is this October acting more like an El Niño October verses La Niña? I mean there’s plenty of unfavorable shear basin wide.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3304 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:18 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is it me or is this October acting more like an El Niño October verses La Niña? I mean there’s plenty of unfavorable shear basin wide.

It's just you. October has been above average so far in overall activity, including both of the named storms forming in the NW Caribbean. A major hurricane in the NW Caribbean is not El Niño like.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3305 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is it me or is this October acting more like an El Niño October verses La Niña? I mean there’s plenty of unfavorable shear basin wide.



It's you
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3306 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:32 pm

November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- None of these 6 was during El Nino as all were either during La Nina or cold neutral
- So, don't let your guard down in November, especially since it isn't El Nino
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3307 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- So, don't let your guard down in November



I think it's noteworthy to mention that Kate was NOT a Caribbean storm!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3308 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:41 pm

toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- So, don't let your guard down in November



I think it's noteworthy to mention that Kate was NOT a Caribbean storm!


Good point. Neither was 1934 for all practical purposes even though it ended up there.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3309 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:51 pm

LarryWx wrote:November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- None of these 6 was during El Nino as all were either during La Nina or cold neutral
- So, don't let your guard down in November, especially since it isn't El Nino

I'd also like to nominate #14 in 1932... Yes I know it technically formed on Oct. 30 but it's another very significant storm as I believe it's the only Nov. Cat 5 on record, landfalled in Cuba as a Cat 4
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3310 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:11 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
LarryWx wrote:November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- None of these 6 was during El Nino as all were either during La Nina or cold neutral
- So, don't let your guard down in November, especially since it isn't El Nino

I'd also like to nominate #14 in 1932... Yes I know it technically formed on Oct. 30 but it's another very significant storm as I believe it's the only Nov. Cat 5 on record, landfalled in Cuba as a Cat 4

The 1932 hurricane is just weird. A Cat 5 Caribbean Cruiser and a Cat 5 landfall in November...you can’t make this stuff up. It might’ve even been below 910 mbar; the 915 mbar estimate is apparently the higher end estimate.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3311 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:14 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
LarryWx wrote:November (genesis) major hurricanes on record since 1851: all made landfall

- 2016: Otto landfalled on Nicaragua as a MH
- 2008: Paloma landfalled on Cuba as a cat 2
- 1999: Lenny landfalled on some of the Leeward islands as a MH
- 1985; Kate landfalled on NW FL as a cat 2
- 1934: landfalled on the DR as a TS
- 1912: landfalled on Jamaica as a MH

Analysis:
- You don't want a MH in November because all 6 of them since 1851 made landfall, with 5 of the 6 as a H and 3 of the 6 as a MH
- Increasing in frequency due to GW? 1st 130 years only 2; last 40 years 4; last 12 years 2
- None of these 6 was during El Nino as all were either during La Nina or cold neutral
- So, don't let your guard down in November, especially since it isn't El Nino

I'd also like to nominate #14 in 1932... Yes I know it technically formed on Oct. 30 but it's another very significant storm as I believe it's the only Nov. Cat 5 on record, landfalled in Cuba as a Cat 4

The 1932 hurricane is just weird. A Cat 5 Caribbean Cruiser and a Cat 5 landfall in November...you can’t make this stuff up. It might’ve even been below 910 mbar; the 915 mbar estimate is apparently the higher end estimate.

Yeah looking at that 1932 season, another storm after that developed in the MDR in mid November and became a Cat 2 as it tracked North, talk about a strange season
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3312 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:26 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'd also like to nominate #14 in 1932... Yes I know it technically formed on Oct. 30 but it's another very significant storm as I believe it's the only Nov. Cat 5 on record, landfalled in Cuba as a Cat 4

The 1932 hurricane is just weird. A Cat 5 Caribbean Cruiser and a Cat 5 landfall in November...you can’t make this stuff up. It might’ve even been below 910 mbar; the 915 mbar estimate is apparently the higher end estimate.

Yeah looking at that 1932 season, another storm after that developed in the MDR in mid November and became a Cat 2 as it tracked North, talk about a strange season

There was also this hurricane in November 1942 that developed over the Turks and Caicos Islands, headed west-southwest, struck Cuba as a minimal hurricane, traversed the Caribbean Sea, and eventually struck Belize (then British Honduras) as a high-end Category-2 hurricane. Based on descriptions of damage and the sparsity of in-situ observations, this system could have easily been much stronger than listed here, and given its compact size, it could have been a Cat-3 or even Cat-4 at landfall in British Honduras; wind- and surge-caused damage was tremendous in a narrow swath beneath the inner core.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3313 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:19 pm

I swear to god the baseless and unqualified downcasting of literally the most active season on record to this point with exceptionally favorable base state conditions (and a very strong Niña) with an already above normal October makes me not even want to post here anymore, the level of frustration it brings is unhealthy

US threats probably decreasing into November but Caribbean threats and mid-latitude storms almost ubiquitous in all Niña years into the last few weeks of the season; beating 2005's NS count not a guarantee though
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3314 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:11 pm

EquusStorm wrote:I swear to god the baseless and unqualified downcasting of literally the most active season on record to this point with exceptionally favorable base state conditions (and a very strong Niña) with an already above normal October makes me not even want to post here anymore, the level of frustration it brings is unhealthy

US threats probably decreasing into November but Caribbean threats and mid-latitude storms almost ubiquitous in all Niña years into the last few weeks of the season; beating 2005's NS count not a guarantee though


US threats "probably" decreasing into November? That's a HUGE understatement. There has never ever ever ever since 1851 been a US November landfall that originated in the Caribbean. How is a exceptionally favorable base state going to effect that? 13 more days and it's over for the CONUS sans a extreme anomaly.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3315 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:20 am

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3316 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I swear to god the baseless and unqualified downcasting of literally the most active season on record to this point with exceptionally favorable base state conditions (and a very strong Niña) with an already above normal October makes me not even want to post here anymore, the level of frustration it brings is unhealthy

US threats probably decreasing into November but Caribbean threats and mid-latitude storms almost ubiquitous in all Niña years into the last few weeks of the season; beating 2005's NS count not a guarantee though


US threats "probably" decreasing into November? That's a HUGE understatement. There has never ever ever ever since 1851 been a US November landfall that originated in the Caribbean. How is a exceptionally favorable base state going to effect that? 13 more days and it's over for the CONUS sans a extreme anomaly.

Idk, maybe because CFS and EPS is forecasting rising motion until late November?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3317 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:35 pm

Quite the signal for below normal shear over the Caribbean in November on the CFS. Probably too late for the CONUS, but central America, the Yucatan, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles should pay attention :roll:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3318 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:59 pm

I mean lots of people still live in the Caribbean despite this board discounting anything that hits somewhere besides the US, and Ida in 2009 was just a hundred miles from a November Gulf Caribbean-originated landfall so
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3319 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:38 pm

EquusStorm wrote:I mean lots of people still live in the Caribbean despite this board discounting anything that hits somewhere besides the US, and Ida in 2009 was just a hundred miles from a November Gulf Caribbean-originated landfall so

Yeah for real. One model storm may not develop, and people just turn around and cancel the last month and a half of the season
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3320 Postby FireRat » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:54 pm

It would be so 2020 to feature NOVEMBER as the worst month on record, with multiple majors including a CAT 5, like 1932 on crack. :grrr:

It could be over soon, more likely, but what if we get the ultimate punk? :double:
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