2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6605
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3321 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:56 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Quite the signal for below normal shear over the Caribbean in November on the CFS. Probably too late for the CONUS, but central America, the Yucatan, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles should pay attention :roll:
https://i.imgur.com/mbCV02H_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium


You do realize the Bahamas and South Florida are almost at the same latitude. Anything impacting them will certainly have the opportunity to impact the lower peninsula.
0 likes   

ClarCari
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3322 Postby ClarCari » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:11 pm

With some signs (though too early to really tell) of La Niña persisting into next year with a possible at least Cool-Neutral phase, could anyone imagine if next season is actually what we were expecting 2020 to be all along?

Of course it would depend if the already favorable conditions for genesis this season continued into next year which isn’t impossible by any means...and NOT unprecedented (2005>2004, 2017>2016, etc,).....

It would be actually verrryyyy 2020 to troll everybody into thinking this would be the most active season ever only to be a “soft” version of 2005 and then 2021 turns out to be THE season that gives 2005 and 2020 both a run for their money in named storms and intensity. :lol:
2 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1300
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3323 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am

FireRat wrote:It would be so 2020 to feature NOVEMBER as the worst month on record, with multiple majors including a CAT 5, like 1932 on crack.

It could be over soon, more likely, but what if we get the ultimate punk?

Honestly, I think 2020 could have been far worse to date, fortunately. Yes, we’ve seen many landfalls, including Laura, Sally, and Delta, but long-tracking majors, along with 2005- or 2017-level human and/or monetary losses, have been very “slim pickings” this year. Even the “big ones” of the year could have been more consequential than they’ve been, especially Sally and Delta, both of which I once expected to become Cat-4+ systems, the latter of which I suspected would attain Cat-5 status. Obviously, the CV season underperformed significantly relative to overall conditions and forecasts. I think the wildfires in the West and ongoing economic and political chaos have been more impactful, on balance, than the 2020 AHS to date, though on the local level this season certainly won’t be forgotten, primarily in Louisiana. At least the Caribbean and Bahamas haven’t seen too much carnage.

If not for high-impact legends such as Audrey ‘57 and Rita ‘05, this season would be considered one of the most memorable on record in Southwestern Louisiana, period. As it is, it has been bad enough, especially in a region that has long been neglected, much like the Florida Panhandle since Michael and Puerto Rico since Maria, to not mention the Bahamas since Dorian. If I recall correctly, even Punta Gorda has still not recovered entirely from Charley ‘04; neither Mississippi nor NOLA has since Katrina. Even with all the rampant reconstruction since then, there are still empty lots in Homestead, Florida, that date back to Andrew ‘92, especially in and around Naranja Lakes. Louisiana’s economy has been devastated by pollution, the Deepwater Horizon disaster, coastal erosion, and repeated TC disasters, from Katrina to Isaac and “double-whammy” Laura/Delta. Now COVID-19 is a “kiss of death.”

Overall, 2020 was less a singular event than just one more stressor and catalyst on top of long-term trends.
8 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3324 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:18 pm

aspen wrote:One thing I’m very surprised we haven’t seen at all this year is one of those wacky long-tracking mid-latitude STCs/hurricanes. 2005 had a lot of those (Franklin, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), and other recent active seasons had their fair share of them too — 2012 (Michael and Nadine), 2018 (Leslie and Oscar), and 2019 (Pablo).

Less than two weeks later and we finally have one, which just so happens to be the reincarnation of 2005’s Hurricane Epsilon. It’s expected to be a hurricane for the next 4 days or so and could become stronger than the NHC’s rather conservative 75 kt, so we could see at least 10 ACE from Epsilon 2 once it finishes up.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Dean_175
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 235
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3325 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:11 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is it me or is this October acting more like an El Niño October verses La Niña? I mean there’s plenty of unfavorable shear basin wide.


Nah.Shear normally increases in the basin at this time of year as the fall/baroclinic weather systems start coming more into play. For instance- it is perfectly typical for the long tracking Cape Verde portion of the season to be over in October.

El Niño Octobers are often completely lacking in activity- with an early end to the season sometimes coming in September. Look at 2002: an at-the-time record breaking September suddenly gave way to absolutely no tropical development in October or November.
1 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22628
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3326 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 pm

All of this rain in Florida is certainly not acting like a La Niña fall but I would expect us to dry out soon not just because the rainy season should be coming to an end, but La Niña winters for Florida are usually warmer and drier than normal.
1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3327 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:11 pm

One thing 2020 had over 2005 is the quality of its Greek storms. Besides C3 Beta and C1 Epsilon, the rest of the Greeks were tropical storms, and half of them were noteworthy due to their tracks and timeframes. In 2020, every Greek storm except for Beta has exceeded the intensity of its 2005 version, and the last three — Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon — have become significant over-achievers. Gamma was likely a hurricane at landfall just 27 hours after forming, Delta nearly became Wilma 2.0 and intensified at a near-record pace, and Epsilon has become a strange hybrid-looking major. Alpha was weak, but it was the strongest (sub)tropical system to ever make landfall in Portugal.
11 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 280
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3328 Postby Ryxn » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:25 am

Since I consider this the general 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread, I will post this here as well. Originally posted in the potential Eta thread.

If Zeta somehow rapidly strengthens to a 115 mph Category 3 Hurricane and future Eta (barring no weak TS steals the name) reaches major hurricane strength as well next week, it would make Eta a 4th consecutive major hurricane (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta) which would be a tied record. There has only been 2 instances of a consecutive streak of over 3 major hurricanes since records began; 1926 and 1894 (which both almost had an insane 5-major streak)

Longest Major Hurricane Streaks

Four
1926 (One, Two, Three, Four) [almost Five]
1894 (Three, Four, Five, Six) [almost Seven]

Three
2017 (Harvey, Irma, Jose)
2016 (Matthew, Nicole, Otto)
2010 (Igor, Julia, Karl)
2004 (Ivan, Jeanne, Karl) [If depressions are discluded]
1964 (Gladys, Hilda, Isbell)
1955 (Ione, Hilda, Janet)
1950 (Dog, Easy, Fox)
1886 (Five, Six, Seven)

Seasons that came close to reaching a record 4-major streak

2017 (Harvey, Irma, Jose was a 3-major streak but it could have smashed the record had Katia strengthen one category higher to major hurricane status extending the streak to a record insane 6 majors from Harvey to Maria. If Gert had been a major, there would have been a 4-major streak from Gert to Jose and if both had been majors, there would have been a streak of 7 from Gert to Maria. Crazy stuff)

1950 (Dog, Easy, Fox was a 3-major streak. There would have been a streak of 4 had Charlie or George strengthened 5 mph more to major hurricane status)

1933 (Eleven, Twelve, Fourteen were majors and there would have been a 4-major streak had Thirteen been a major)

1893 (Three, Four, Six were majors there would have been a 4-major streak had Five been a major)

1886 (Five, Six, Seven was a 3-major streak. There would have been a streak of 4 had Eight been a major).

If 2020 achieves this streak of FOUR CONSECUTIVE MAJOR HURRICANES, it would be the first occurence in the satellite era and would add to the countless records the year already has. It is also possible that 1926 and 1894 don't hold the record as there could have been a short-lived, weak fish storm that was undetected in-between the major hurricanes of the streaks of those 2 years. We will never know.

Good morning Storm2k! What a time to be alive.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3329 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:25 pm

If Gamma is upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis (rather likely) and “future Eta” rapidly intensifies like much of the models are showing (also rather likely), that’ll mean every storm that has formed in October reached hurricane intensity. Quite impressive for a season that has, at times, been very quantity>quality.
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1583
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3330 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:10 pm

aspen wrote:If Gamma is upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis (rather likely) and “future Eta” rapidly intensifies like much of the models are showing (also rather likely), that’ll mean every storm that has formed in October reached hurricane intensity. Quite impressive for a season that has, at times, been very quantity>quality.

The ratio is catching up though. A lot of quality storms lately...
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 280
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3331 Postby Ryxn » Mon Oct 26, 2020 3:21 pm

aspen wrote:If Gamma is upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis (rather likely) and “future Eta” rapidly intensifies like much of the models are showing (also rather likely), that’ll mean every storm that has formed in October reached hurricane intensity. Quite impressive for a season that has, at times, been very quantity>quality.


It would be the first time since 2016 that all storms attained hurricane status and first time since 2010 that more than 3 storms formed and ALL attained hurricane status (that year had 5!)
1 likes   

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 280
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3332 Postby Ryxn » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:32 pm

The 2016-2020 five-year streak of having at least ONE forming hurricane in October is tied in 3rd with 1884-1888,1902-1906, and 1961-1965 and comes behind the insane 13-year streak set 1943-1955 and the six-year streaks set 1987-1992 and 1867-1872.
Last edited by Ryxn on Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 280
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3333 Postby Ryxn » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:45 pm

The 5-year streak of 2016-2020 is also the second longest streak of seasons with at least 2 hurricanes existing in October. The current longest streak of consecutive hurricane seasons featuring 2 or more hurricanes in October is 1949-1954 which spanned 6 years. If next year features 2 hurricanes in October, which I think is very possible, the record will be tied.

2016-20 streak (October dates are in parentheses)

2016: Matthew (1-9), Nicole (6, 11-18)
2017: Nate (7-8), Ophelia (11-16)
2018: Leslie (3-4, 10-13), Michael (8-11), Oscar (28-31)
2019: Lorenzo (1-2), Pablo (27-28)
2020: Gamma (3), Delta (4-10), Epsilon (21-25), Zeta (26-)


1949-1954 streak

1949: Eleven (1-6), Thirteen (14-17)
1950: George (1-5), Item (9-11), Jig (13-16), King (16-19), Love (18-21)
1951: How (1-6), Jig (15-16)
1952: Easy (8-9), Fox (22-27)
1953: Gail (3-5), Hazel (9-10)
1954: Thirteen (2-6), Hazel (5-16)
Last edited by Ryxn on Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3334 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:00 pm

So far, the 2020 season has just passed the threshold of a hyperactive year according to my TC metric, Instantaneous Cyclone Energy (ICE). The 1977-2016 average is 386.28 ICE per season, and hyperactive is anything over 150% average.

Arthur: 8.62
Bertha: 2.76
Cristobal: 7.93
Dolly: 2.69
Edouard: 1.66
Fay: 5.86
Gonzalo: 7.45
Hanna: 31.86
Isaias: 20.00*
TD-10: 0.55
Josephine: 2.07
Kyle: 4.14
Laura: 112.97
Marco: 13.24
Omar: 1.66
Nana: 11.59
Paulette: 44.83
Rene: 4.14
Sally: 44.83
Teddy: 91.72
Vicky: 4.14
Beta: 7.24
Wilfred: 1.10
Alpha: 5.24
Gamma: 16.90
Delta: 84.14
Epsilon: 66.21
Zeta: 21.10 (as of the 5pm advisory)
TOTAL: 628.86 (162.800% 1977-2016 average)

*using 986 mbar measured by Mark Sudduth at landfall in NC
4 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 15804
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3335 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:21 pm

This was posted in the Zeta thread, also good to post here.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1321515496412336128


1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3336 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:10 pm

There is a decent chance 2020 could tie 2005’s record major total, if the following happens:
—The NHC upgrades Zeta to a Cat 3 before landfall
—“Future Eta” becomes a major
—Sally is upgraded to 100 kt in post-season analysis

All of these are reasonable outcomes, and together will give 2020 a total of 7 major hurricanes. We’re also on the cusp of tying 2005’s record named storms (28) and there’s a good chance it’ll surpass that.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1583
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3337 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:11 pm

aspen wrote:There is a decent chance 2020 could tie 2005’s record major total, if the following happens:
—The NHC upgrades Zeta to a Cat 3 before landfall
—“Future Eta” becomes a major
—Sally is upgraded to 100 kt in post-season analysis

All of these are reasonable outcomes, and together will give 2020 a total of 7 major hurricanes. We’re also on the cusp of tying 2005’s record named storms (28) and there’s a good chance it’ll surpass that.

And yet people keep saying this season isn't that impressive...
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2070
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3338 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:23 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:There is a decent chance 2020 could tie 2005’s record major total, if the following happens:
—The NHC upgrades Zeta to a Cat 3 before landfall
—“Future Eta” becomes a major
—Sally is upgraded to 100 kt in post-season analysis

All of these are reasonable outcomes, and together will give 2020 a total of 7 major hurricanes. We’re also on the cusp of tying 2005’s record named storms (28) and there’s a good chance it’ll surpass that.

And yet people keep saying this season isn't that impressive...



I'm guessing they're not saying that anymore. If they are, then I'm not sure what more they want!

Well, maybe a cat 5. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3761
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3339 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:32 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:There is a decent chance 2020 could tie 2005’s record major total, if the following happens:
—The NHC upgrades Zeta to a Cat 3 before landfall
—“Future Eta” becomes a major
—Sally is upgraded to 100 kt in post-season analysis

All of these are reasonable outcomes, and together will give 2020 a total of 7 major hurricanes. We’re also on the cusp of tying 2005’s record named storms (28) and there’s a good chance it’ll surpass that.

And yet people keep saying this season isn't that impressive...



I'm guessing they're not saying that anymore. If they are, then I'm not sure what more they want!

Well, maybe a cat 5. :wink:

It is odd that what will soon become the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record hasn’t produced a single Cat 5...yet. As unlikely as it is, Eta is the final chance for one. Will it finally take full advantage of the broiling Caribbean SSTs/OHC without being interrupted by mid-level shear or landfall?
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1583
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3340 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:33 pm

aspen wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:And yet people keep saying this season isn't that impressive...



I'm guessing they're not saying that anymore. If they are, then I'm not sure what more they want!

Well, maybe a cat 5. :wink:

It is odd that what will soon become the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record hasn’t produced a single Cat 5...yet. As unlikely as it is, Eta is the final chance for one. Will it finally take full advantage of the broiling Caribbean SSTs/OHC without being interrupted by mid-level shear or landfall?

It's 2020... Cat 5 Pi on Dec. 31 :lol:
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Chris90, Nawtamet, wxman57 and 24 guests