2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3341 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:46 pm

aspen wrote:There is a decent chance 2020 could tie 2005’s record major total, if the following happens:
—The NHC upgrades Zeta to a Cat 3 before landfall
—“Future Eta” becomes a major
—Sally is upgraded to 100 kt in post-season analysis

All of these are reasonable outcomes, and together will give 2020 a total of 7 major hurricanes. We’re also on the cusp of tying 2005’s record named storms (28) and there’s a good chance it’ll surpass that.


There's even an outside shot of a major around Nov 20 that is Hurricane Otto-esque. Or a weaker version of Lenny might occur. These outcomes are unlikely (would more likely be CAT1/2, but if this occurs, 2020 would feature a record 8 major hurricanes).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3342 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:57 pm

Although not as aggressive as GFS-para, operational GFS is trying hard to depict a possibly hyperactive November...

Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3343 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:01 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Although not as aggressive as GFS-para, operational GFS is trying hard to depict a possibly hyperactive November...

https://i.imgur.com/hdrMnpL.png
https://i.imgur.com/NvORaFA.png

I never recall seeing such a favorable model signal for November. The month averages less than one named storm, but we'll see what happens in 2020...
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3344 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:29 pm

Mark my words, November 2020 is going to produce a record 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ballsy claim I know.

Major Eta in early November.
Tropical Storm around November 9
Hurricane in Central Atlantic around November 15
Major in Caribbean around November 18-30
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3345 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:42 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Although not as aggressive as GFS-para, operational GFS is trying hard to depict a possibly hyperactive November...

https://i.imgur.com/hdrMnpL.png
https://i.imgur.com/NvORaFA.png

I never recall seeing such a favorable model signal for November. The month averages less than one named storm, but we'll see what happens in 2020...


When many were comparing this year to 2005, I remember saying that every season is different. 2005 had a crazy July maybe this year gonna have a crazy November..

If this November doesn’t turn out to be crazy, I don’t think anyone gonna care given the crazy season this year....
Also I wonder if anyone is still holding on to ACE after this crazy supercharged season? I know many were against the media calling this year supercharged in September but I think after everything so far, 2020 hurricanes season deserves the title supercharged!!!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3346 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:19 pm

This season has been full of storms and hurricanes that would’ve been stronger had they had more time over water before landfall. Zeta is the most recent in a long list in the Atlantic this season starting with Bertha back in May.

Personally I don’t think Zeta qualifies to be upgraded to a Cat.3 major hurricane status as the eye wasn’t symmetric.

Still think Nana will be downgraded to TS status at post-season while Gamma gets upgraded to Hurricane status.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3347 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:22 pm

Ryxn wrote:Mark my words, November 2020 is going to produce a record 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ballsy claim I know.

Major Eta in early November.
Tropical Storm around November 9
Hurricane in Central Atlantic around November 15
Major in Caribbean around November 18-30

Dude, stop hyping things up!

This October alone produced 4/3/2 as of now. The most I see November producing is 2/1/1. With MAYBE one storm in December in the Subtropics.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3348 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:34 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Mark my words, November 2020 is going to produce a record 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ballsy claim I know.

Major Eta in early November.
Tropical Storm around November 9
Hurricane in Central Atlantic around November 15
Major in Caribbean around November 18-30

Dude, stop hyping things up!

This October alone produced 4/3/2 as of now. The most I see November producing is 2/1/1. With MAYBE one storm in December in the Subtropics.


You are completely correct. Not a realistic prediction at all on my part. Although I made that post with no intention to hype things up :)
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3349 Postby Steve » Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:52 pm

Looks like the MJO could make a run in 5 days or so. 200hPa anomalies don’t heavily coincide this round though after 8-10 days. But the MJO could be indicating a juicy 96l as it comes up. Not sure as I haven’t paid any attention to it, but the timing after the 5th or so could coincide with a pattern repeat from late August (and a similar pattern that has continued to spawn Gulf landfalls even though the MJO mostly hasn’t been in the dominant phases).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3350 Postby Steve » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:55 am

Following up on my previous post, here’s Bastardi’s Saturday Summary which goes into way more detail about the MJO and cold high pressure patterns. Educational this week without bloviation. Good **** and a primer on patterns to watch for in future seasons.

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-s ... y-220?full
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3351 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:44 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Mark my words, November 2020 is going to produce a record 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Ballsy claim I know.

Major Eta in early November.
Tropical Storm around November 9
Hurricane in Central Atlantic around November 15
Major in Caribbean around November 18-30

Dude, stop hyping things up!

This October alone produced 4/3/2 as of now. The most I see November producing is 2/1/1. With MAYBE one storm in December in the Subtropics.


I could easily see the 4/3/2 number being a combined Nov/Dec total. CFS continues to show activity into early to mid December
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3352 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:59 pm

What a crazy late season that will likely vault 2020 to true hyperactive status :double:
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1323323108158181379


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3353 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:12 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:What a crazy late season that will likely vault 2020 to true hyperactive status :double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1323323108158181379


I'm going to be a bit of a jerk and say that's impossible because hyperactive status is a made up metric to begin with so there's no true hyperactivity. :lol: I think I've made my point though, these made up metrics do more harm than good.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3354 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:58 pm

So, Oct of 2020 officially just barely missed being the first season on record with 4 October W Caribbean TC geneses since TD #29 was declared at 5 PM on 10/31 but just a little too far east at 73.2W. But it is tied with 2005 with the only Octobers with 4 Caribbean geneses.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3355 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:23 pm

Eta accomplished what Delta couldn’t.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1323354398320308224


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3356 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:57 pm

Yeah so much for this season being full of weak storms. 2020 kept most of the big guns for the late part of the season.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3357 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:45 pm

If Gamma and Zeta get upgrades to C1 and C3 respectively, that’ll give 2020 a 5 hurricane and 4 major streak — all in the final two months of the season. It certainly saved some of the biggest and weirdest storms for its final act, along with a WCar beast to mark tying 2005’s named storm record.

I’m not excluding one last C2+ hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean. The effects of La Niña are in full force, and the NW Caribbean remains a potent power keg with even more potential than where Eta blew up into a Cat 4/5. Remember, Hurricane Lenny became a 135 kt C4 in mid-November in the usually cooler eastern Caribbean. I’d say another NWCar major is much more likely than anything like Lenny.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3358 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:51 pm

This 500mb steering pattern is something you’d expect to see in August or September not November with a strong Bermuda High parked just NE of Bermuda steering anything west and west-northwest towards the U.S., Caribbean, and Central America.
:double:

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1324395865520427009




 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1324398793677279232


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3359 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:12 pm

Imagine if that Caribbean system becomes another Cat 4+ storm like Eta. This would be a first for any November, but then again, it’s 2020. It doesn’t know when to chill out, and the Caribbean has been a hotspot for systems over the last month or so.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3360 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:15 pm

aspen wrote:Imagine if that Caribbean system becomes another Cat 4+ storm like Eta. This would be a first for any November, but then again, it’s 2020. It doesn’t know when to chill out, and the Caribbean has been a hotspot for systems over the last month or so.

It's almost as if the Caribbean is trying to make up for its decade of inactivity over a two month period :lol:
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