2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3361 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:38 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
aspen wrote:Imagine if that Caribbean system becomes another Cat 4+ storm like Eta. This would be a first for any November, but then again, it’s 2020. It doesn’t know when to chill out, and the Caribbean has been a hotspot for systems over the last month or so.

It's almost as if the Caribbean is trying to make up for its decade of inactivity over a two month period :lol:

It even tried a Wilma 2.0....twice. Delta was tripped by mid-level shear and Eta was a standard 130-145 kt system wearing a T#8.5 mask.

Eta bombed out in a region with OHC no more than half as high as the NW Caribbean, and yet it still became a powerful Cat 4/5 pinhole with the most impressive Dvorak/IR presentation in years (mainly due to cooler troposphere temps this time of year, IIRC). If something is able to bomb out in the NWCar, it could also challenge the 1932 Cuba hurricane for the strongest November TC, even though it’s possible Eta did get below 915 mbar when recon wasn’t there.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3362 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:37 am

aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
aspen wrote:Imagine if that Caribbean system becomes another Cat 4+ storm like Eta. This would be a first for any November, but then again, it’s 2020. It doesn’t know when to chill out, and the Caribbean has been a hotspot for systems over the last month or so.

It's almost as if the Caribbean is trying to make up for its decade of inactivity over a two month period :lol:

It even tried a Wilma 2.0....twice. Delta was tripped by mid-level shear and Eta was a standard 130-145 kt system wearing a T#8.5 mask.

Eta bombed out in a region with OHC no more than half as high as the NW Caribbean, and yet it still became a powerful Cat 4/5 pinhole with the most impressive Dvorak/IR presentation in years (mainly due to cooler troposphere temps this time of year, IIRC). If something is able to bomb out in the NWCar, it could also challenge the 1932 Cuba hurricane for the strongest November TC, even though it’s possible Eta did get below 915 mbar when recon wasn’t there.


Let's hope they're going over the planes and their instruments with a microscope during this brief lull before Eta does whatever it's going to do in the next couple of days, and whatever else the Atlantic throws at us this month.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3363 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:29 pm

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3364 Postby Steve » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:08 pm

MJO moving into Phase 8. Eta is there and a little spin around LA. Goes to show 2020 spins up low pressure.

:flag:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3365 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:46 am

2020 has a very good chance of beating/tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season in all metrics besides ACE.

-If both the subtropic and Caribbean system form, that’ll tie 2005’s record 31 tropical depressions.

-If those two systems become Theta and Iota, 2020 will surpass 2005’s NS record with 30 named storms.

-Assuming Gamma gets upgraded in post-season analysis, 2020 will have produced 13 hurricanes by this point. It’ll only take two more to tie 2005’s record 15. “Future Iota” in the Caribbean would have the best shot of becoming a hurricane, but maybe “future Theta” could pull a Vince/Pablo and become one too.

-Assuming Zeta gets upgraded in post-season, 2020 will have produced 6 majors by now. Just one more until we tie 2005’s record, and given the way the Caribbean has been this year, perhaps “future Iota” could make a run for major status.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3366 Postby Ryxn » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:24 am

aspen wrote:2020 has a very good chance of beating/tying 2005 for the most active Atlantic hurricane season in all metrics besides ACE.

-If both the subtropic and Caribbean system form, that’ll tie 2005’s record 31 tropical depressions.

-If those two systems become Theta and Iota, 2020 will surpass 2005’s NS record with 30 named storms.

-Assuming Gamma gets upgraded in post-season analysis, 2020 will have produced 13 hurricanes by this point. It’ll only take two more to tie 2005’s record 15. “Future Iota” in the Caribbean would have the best shot of becoming a hurricane, but maybe “future Theta” could pull a Vince/Pablo and become one too.

-Assuming Zeta gets upgraded in post-season, 2020 will have produced 6 majors by now. Just one more until we tie 2005’s record, and given the way the Caribbean has been this year, perhaps “future Iota” could make a run for major status.


I'm calling for...
34 tropical depressions (record high)
33 named storms (record high)
16 hurricanes (record high)
7 major hurricanes (record high, tied with 2005)

I believe Theta and Iota will both be hurricanes with Iota becoming a major. I believe there will then be one more tropical storm in November and 2 named storms in December with one of them becoming a minimal hurricane.

Edit: Fun fact, if the season produces one more storm at the turn of the new year (34 NS), the storm would be named, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Nu which would be fitting for the time of year it would be forming (New Year's Eve/Day).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3367 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:53 am

One of the most unique aspects of this season is how near-constant the activity has been. While the months of June, July and November often have very little (or in some cases, no) activity, activity has been near-constant since Arthur formed in mid-May. The longest lull of the season so far has been 12 days (between Cristobal's dissipation and Dolly's formation).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3368 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:45 pm

Has there ever been 2 or more simultaneously active storms in November? If 97L keeps it act up, it’ll become Theta will Eta is still active, and it’s possible Iota could form quickly enough to join both of them.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3369 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:12 am

The NHC is tired of this season. They said ugh in a tweet lol
 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1325680851103834112


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3370 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:58 am

It turns out the early indicators we had (near-record MDR SSTAs, record low Atlantic SLPs, near record low MDR/Caribbean shear) meant something after all. The CV season wasn't that intense this year, but the late-season Caribbean activity has been nothing short of remarkable. 2020 is a prime example of how you can have a hyperactive season without much notable MDR activity.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3371 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:30 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:It turns out the early indicators we had (near-record MDR SSTAs, record low Atlantic SLPs, near record low MDR/Caribbean shear) meant something after all. The CV season wasn't that intense this year, but the late-season Caribbean activity has been nothing short of remarkable. 2020 is a prime example of how you can have a hyperactive season without much notable MDR activity.

We would’ve had a hyperactive MDR in terms of quality (there was a good amount of quantity this year) if it wasn’t for two things: the ITCZ being further north than normal, and the large TUTT that was fueled by the trio of recurving typhoons. If the ITCZ was further south and the three typhoons didn’t exist, then storms like Paulette, Rene, and Teddy could’ve been even stronger long-trackers and might not have missed most landmasses. Those two factors prevented something like another Irma or Ivan.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3372 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:01 pm

I can't believe persons on social media still having ACE debate. I get it.. 2020 is not an intense season as 2005.. However we can not deny the fact that level of activity is absurd this year and so many storms blew up before landfall

The fact is, the only reason ACE is not super high is because we did not have a Irma, Ivan, Florence like system that started strong in the MDR and remained strong strong until landfall in the Western Atlantic... The irony is in 2018 and 2019, many were complaining that Florence was the reason 2018 had high ACE. Dorian was the only reason 2019 had high ACE. Now this year we had so many strong systems but the argument is about too low AcE for so many storms

Maybe Paulette would have been out giant ace producer if it had moved more south
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3373 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:30 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:I can't believe persons on social media still having ACE debate. I get it.. 2020 is not an intense season as 2005.. However we can not deny the fact that level of activity is absurd this year and so many storms blew up before landfall

The fact is, the only reason ACE is not super high is because we did not have a Irma, Ivan, Florence like system that started strong in the MDR and remained strong strong until landfall in the Western Atlantic... The irony is in 2018 and 2019, many were complaining that Florence was the reason 2018 had high ACE. Dorian was the only reason 2019 had high ACE. Now this year we had so many strong systems but the argument is about too low AcE for so many storms

Maybe Paulette would have been out giant ace producer if it had moved more south

I know 2020 didn't have the 4 Cat 5's that 2005 had, but the landfalls this season were at least the same, even stronger in some cases than in 2005. So in terms of intensity the only thing 2005 has over 2020 right now is the Cat 5s, and it had 7 majors, which if 98L/Iota becomes one and Zeta gets the upgrade 2020 will tie that
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3374 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:29 pm

aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:It turns out the early indicators we had (near-record MDR SSTAs, record low Atlantic SLPs, near record low MDR/Caribbean shear) meant something after all. The CV season wasn't that intense this year, but the late-season Caribbean activity has been nothing short of remarkable. 2020 is a prime example of how you can have a hyperactive season without much notable MDR activity.

We would’ve had a hyperactive MDR in terms of quality (there was a good amount of quantity this year) if it wasn’t for two things: the ITCZ being further north than normal, and the large TUTT that was fueled by the trio of recurving typhoons. If the ITCZ was further south and the three typhoons didn’t exist, then storms like Paulette, Rene, and Teddy could’ve been even stronger long-trackers and might not have missed most landmasses. Those two factors prevented something like another Irma or Ivan.


I'll go further and say the monsoon trough was the primary factor--if we'd had a typical wave progression these storms would've come of Africa a lot further south (and Paulette's disturbance wouldn't have been pulled further north) which would've kept them both over warmer waters and clear of the TUTT--in fact Rene exited far enough north that it failed to strengthen more because of water temps and drier air that was typical in the region--the upper air patter was actually favorable.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3375 Postby Steve » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:56 pm

I pretty much forgot about Paulette and Rene. Seems like last year. Let me ask you what you got out of the CFS long range and what you’re going to follow it for in the future.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3376 Postby Ryxn » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:18 pm

I'd like to share some perspective on how this season compares with 2005 when it comes to storm counts...

2005 vs 2020 Basin-specific Storm Counts (as of November 16)

2005 (as of Nov 16)

2005 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 11
Tropical Storms:          11
Hurricanes:                    7
Major Hurricanes:        5

2005 Caribbean Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 9
Tropical Storms:          8
Hurricanes:                   4
Major Hurricanes:        4

2005 Open Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 20
Tropical Storms:          15
Hurricanes:                   10
Major Hurricanes:          2

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 28
Tropical Storms:          25
Hurricanes:                   14
Major Hurricanes:          7


2020 (as of Nov 16)

The numbers below reflect the presumption that Gamma will get an upgrade to 65 knots and Iota will attain hurricane strength by the 16th. The numbers in the italicized parentheses reflect its difference from 2005's storm count as of November 16.

2020 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 10 (-1)
Tropical Storms:          10 (-1)
Hurricanes:                     7 (no change)
Major Hurricanes:         2 (-3)

2020 Caribbean Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 9 (no change)
Tropical Storms:          9 (+1)
Hurricanes:                   6 (+2)
Major Hurricanes:        2 (-2)

2020 Open Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 21 (+1)
Tropical Storms:          20 (+5)
Hurricanes:                     4 (-6)
Major Hurricanes:          2 (no change)

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 31 (+3)
Tropical Storms:          30 (+5)
Hurricanes:                   14 (no change)
Major Hurricanes:          5 (-2)


From the data collected we notice that in 2020 as of mid-November, each sub-basin aside from the Gulf of Mexico is overperforming 2005. Although in 2020, the gulf featured the same amount of hurricanes as 2005 despite featuring 3 less majors. 2005 was the GULF'S YEAR.

For the Caribbean, 2020 is in the lead but is lagging a bit behind in majors due to 2005's crazy July, but that could change if Iota becomes a major.

For the open Atlantic, 2020 leads or ties 2005 in every category other than hurricane count in which it lags 6 behind. It's worth noting through that 2020 featured 2 forming majors (Teddy and Epsilon) while 2005 only featured 1 (Ophelia). 2020 and 2020 were BOTH not big years for the MDR unlike 2010 and 2017, but 2020 did have one more forming major./b]

[b]For the Atlantic as whole, 2020 leads 2005 in every category other than majors
due to once again a crazy July 2005 which featured 2 majors.

That's all! Thanks for the read 8-)
Last edited by Ryxn on Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3377 Postby Ryxn » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:13 am

And for some more perspective, I have more numbers...this time from the 2010 and 2017 seasons and how they compare to eachother, 2005, and 2020.

2010 (as of Nov 16)

2010 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season
             Difference from  '17  | '05  | '20
Tropical Depressions: 7  (0) | (-4) | (-3)
Tropical Storms:          4 (-3) | (-7) | (-6)   
Hurricanes:                   3 (-2) | (-4) | (-4)   
Major Hurricanes:        1 (-1) | (-4) | (-1)   

2010 Caribbean Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 7 (+2) | (-2) | (-2) 
Tropical Storms:          7 (+2) | (-1) | (-2)   
Hurricanes:                   3 (+2) | (-1) | (-3)  
Major Hurricanes:        0  (-1) | (-4) | (-2)

2010 Open Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 12 (-1) | (-8) | (-9)
Tropical Storms:          12 (+1)| (-3) | (-8)
Hurricanes:                     8 (+2)| (-2) | (+4)
Major Hurricanes:         4  (-1) | (+2)| (+2)

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 21 (+3) | (-7) | (-10)
Tropical Storms:          19 (+2) | (-6) | (-11)
Hurricanes:                   12 (+2) | (-2) | (-2)
Major Hurricanes:          5  (-1) | (-2) | (0)




2017 (as of Nov 16)

2017 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season
             Difference from   '10  | '05  | '20
Tropical Depressions: 7   (0) | (-4) | (-3)
Tropical Storms:          7 (+3) |  (-4)| (-3)
Hurricanes:                   5 (+2) | (-2) | (-2)
Major Hurricanes:        2 (+1) |  (-3)| (0)

2017 Caribbean Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 5 (-2) | (-4) | (-4)
Tropical Storms:          5 (-2) | (-3) | (-4)
Hurricanes:                   1 (-2) | (-3) | (-5)
Major Hurricanes:        1 (+1)| (-3)| (-1)

2017 Open Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 13 (+1)| (-7) | (-8)
Tropical Storms:          11  (-1) | (-4) | (-9)
Hurricanes:                    6   (-2) | (-4) | (+2)
Major Hurricanes:         5  (+1)| (+3)| (+3)

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 18 (-3) | (-10)| (-13)
Tropical Storms:          17 (-2) | (-8)  | (-13)
Hurricanes:                   10 (-2) | (-4)  | (-4)
Major Hurricanes:          6 (+1)| (-1)  | (+1)

You can see just how big 2010 and 2017 were for MDR (or open Atlantic in general) storms. And thanks for the read once again!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3378 Postby FireRat » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:55 am

Fun Fact: There have already been 8 Greek storm systems this year, with #9 likely on the way. 4 of these were hurricanes and 3 of them major if we count Zeta.

Some years haven't even gotten to 9 named storms or 4 hurricanes.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3380 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:32 pm

Many GEFS members show Kappa behind Iota plus maybe a 3rd system :double: also, I'm interested in that trough near Puerto Rico- could give us a surprise north of Puerto Rico

At this rate, we will be very near to 200 ACE. Many were thinking that CSU forecast was too bullish but all of his parameters could be met at this rate. Honestly, we could get 2 more hurricanes in November (including soon to be Iota). The sky is the limit this season people
I've always talked about late-season surprises in the Caribbean during la Nina years- this year though is absurd
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