2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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supercane4867
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3381 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:59 pm

Can't wait for Xi and Pi to be named in December just for the meme storm they will bring...
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3382 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:38 am

The Greek Gang have rapidly made up the low hurricane to Named storms ratio and are helping to boost that ACE up. After Iota goes, I think nearly half of the season's ACE will be from the Greeks.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3383 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:19 am

Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3384 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:39 am

Iota is the 9th 100 mph+ storm of the year, second highest season total, tied with 2010, 1893, and 1886. First place is currently held by 1950 with 10 such storms. By far the ONLY season to have 8 such storms form after August 31.

1. Laura (150 mph) (only such storm forming before Sep 1)
2. Paulette (105 mph)
3. Sally (105 mph)
4. Teddy (140 mph)
5. Delta (145 mph)
6. Epsilon (115 mph)
7. Zeta (110 mph)
8. Eta (150 mph)
9. Iota (145 mph for now)
10. Kappa? (100 mph?)
11. Freak December candy 'cane? (100 mph?)
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3385 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:06 am

Hopefully, the people complaining about ACE/storm and, BUt wE hAD a BUncH oF TroPIcaL STorMs tO StArT learned their lesson.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3386 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:10 pm

Interestingly, two-thirds of this season’s six major hurricanes have occurred in October or later. Only Laura and Teddy roughly coincided with the peak.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3387 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:19 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Interestingly, two-thirds of this season’s six major hurricanes have occurred in October or later. Only Laura and Teddy roughly coincided with the peak.

Outside chance either Sally or Paulette get upped to major but I’m not harping on it, so it could be three out of of seven (Zeta was def a major)
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3388 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:53 pm

galaxy401 wrote:The Greek Gang have rapidly made up the low hurricane to Named storms ratio and are helping to boost that ACE up. After Iota goes, I think nearly half of the season's ACE will be from the Greeks.


This year got tired of being compared to 2005 given how absurdly intense July was that year, so it decided to make up for it at the end.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3389 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:37 pm

September: Quantity over Quality
October: Quality over Quantity
November: Quantity AND Quality

What a year it has been.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3390 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:07 pm

It remains to see if Iota will be the grand finale of the hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It's not clear yet if 2020 will have any December activity. I'm somewhat skeptical of the 0/40 developing since it has been only supported by the GFS (which seems to be backing off development). After that, we may have to watch the region north of the Bahamas as the GFS and ECMWF (as well as their ensembles) have been occasionally suggesting a low many form.

I'm pretty sure we've passed the average date of the final storm dissipation. It's very likely Iota will be the last major (and would require an extremely anomalous storm for that to not be the case, but this season has been so anomalous the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely). For the month of December, TC genesis most commonly occurs over the SW Caribbean and subtropical central/eastern Atlantic. The majority of December systems in the Atlantic develop from nonp-tropical origins. December has seen a total of 19 tropical storms since 1851, an average about one every 9 years.

Unlike the pre-season month of May, which has seen at least one named storm develop in 5 of the last 6 years, the post-season month of December has been quiet recently, with no named storms since Olga in 2007 (as well as an unnamed subtropical storm in 2013). However, the 1998-2007 stretch was fascinating, during this time we saw 6 of those 9 seasons have their final named storm dissipate after November 30. Three straight seasons - all hyperactive by the ACE metric (2003-05) - ended after November 30. This could be one of the reasons why NHC is hesitant to move up the Atlantic start date to May 15th, as the recent stretch of pre-season activity may end up being similar to the 1998-2007 post-season activity stretch that has not been replicated in recent years.

Overall, I'd say chances of a post-season storm are likely less than 50%, but significantly higher than the average year. There's definitely a possibility we get one...but I wouldn't say it's probable or guaranteed.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3391 Postby Ryxn » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:05 am

Wasn't sure what thread to post this in but 2020 will likely have a record 7 billion-dollar hurricanes in 2020 with Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota.

2020 is already the ONLY season on record to have a billion-dollar storm form in every month from July to November (5 months!).

The previous record for most billion-dollar storms is 6 in 2005
2020 also has a record for most storms costing over 3 billion with 6, possibly 7.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3392 Postby Ryxn » Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has some nasty surprises up its sleeve! The theme since 2016 has been more dangerous and destructive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons and with the lack of any kind of winter in these parts you can bet on potential record warmth in the Gulf or off the SE U.S. coastline come summertime. Hope I’m wrong.


....and boy did it have some NASSSTTTTY surprises
:double:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3393 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:08 pm

The last official day of the season, and not only do we have a medium-chance AOI in the NE Atlantic, but there appears to be an LLC associated with what’s left of 99L.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3394 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:52 am

Well well so it's 2021 now and we did not get a single named storm after Iota. Almost seems like the Atlantic desperately wanted to churn up a Cat 5 and after succeeding in doing so after 30 tries and during the week right before Thanksgiving week it simply decided to shut down. Looking back I personally had a gut feeling given the ENSO, crazy warm sst anomalies, and record breaking monsoon season in the beginning parts of the season that it was likely going to be hyperactive and strong, but never did I imagine breaking 2005's NS record and generating very destructive Greek named storms. Oh yeah, and remember the time when some people kept saying in the summer months that the lack of powerful hurricanes meant that a 2013 repeat was bound to happen? Well I'm seriously curious to see what they think now.
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