2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:10 am

The 2020 thread for models is up but all is quiet in the Atlantic on the models front at this first day of the year. Let's see if this year brings some upgrades to models.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2 Postby Homie J » Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:03 pm

GFS has been consistent in forming two cyclones north of Australia around monday. Image
ECWMF has something somewhat similar to gfs as well.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3 Postby aspen » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:34 pm

The GFS is still consistent with a system forming this weekend NW/NNW of Australia that ends up strengthening into a <950 mbar storm next week.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#4 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:44 pm

I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#5 Postby Homie J » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.

Where are you getting the satellite imagery?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#6 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:54 pm

Homie J wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'd give it a 70-80% chance of a TC forming off NW Australia Monday or Tuesday. First one of the season. I can see it already starting to take shape on satellite.

Where are you getting the satellite imagery?


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:56 am

GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#8 Postby Astromanía » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:05 am

aspen wrote:GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.

NW Australia is not that populated, isn't it? or how can that system potentiallly affect that area?, is any city over there?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:04 am

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#10 Postby Astromanía » Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:47 pm

aspen wrote:GFS is pretty aggressive in its 06z run and has a 921 mbar system making landfall in NW Australia in 120 hrs. The Euro has remained very, very tame, with barely any development.


GFS is not that bullish anymore but show it reaching major status still, tho maybe land interaction could prevent that to happen because it will be to close to land, but idk...
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#11 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:05 pm

ECM teasing in January :lol:

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:11 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:ECM teasing in January :lol:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Trfw5Fp/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-6.png [/url]

Wouldn’t be the first time, remember Alex in 2016?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:11 am

Nothing to see here.

Image

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:43 pm

GFS makes a very small comeback but ECMWF still dominates.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1222746480513110016


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#15 Postby Calasanjy » Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:56 pm

The latest GFS model runs show some scary activity possible in the coming 2 weeks in the South Pacific - 3 tropical cyclones in fact. The first one (potential Uesi) is invest 92L. It shows 2 further storms (potential Vicky and Wasi) reaching 930 mb intensity thereafter with the third storm nearing Fiji. I believe an MJO is forecast to move over the region during this time.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:32 am

The surprise is the CMC passing GFS.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1229491471914602499


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:03 pm

This for early 2022.

Two new Cray computers, an operational primary and backup, will be located in Manassas, Virginia, and Phoenix. The computers — each with a 12 petaflop capacity — will be operational and ready to implement model upgrades by early 2022 after a period of code migration and testing. They will replace the existing Cray and Dell systems, "Luna" and "Mars" in Reston, Virginia, and "Surge" and "Venus" in Orlando, Florida.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-t ... g-capacity
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:42 pm

More upgrades to GEFS and FV3 comming.

 https://twitter.com/wxjoe/status/1234879103825825794


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#19 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:More upgrades to GEFS and FV3 comming.

https://twitter.com/wxjoe/status/1234879103825825794

I'm ready for season cancelling to happen when the late July 35 day GEFS shows nothing through early September. :lol:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:36 pm

Maybe or not? This is 12z GFS on days 10-12. 12z ECMWF has something on day 9 in NGOM but goes inland to the northeast.

Image

Image
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