2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[plasticup]

almost nothing in October.

There were two major hurricanes in October.

[aspen]

almost nothing in October.

There were two major hurricanes in October.

One of which nearly became Wilma 2.0 if it wasn’t for an abrupt blast of mid-level shear, and the other was extremely anomalous based on its intensity, location, and time of year.

[aspen]

The GFS and GFS-Para are still consistent with the Halloween East Caribbean wave, while the Euro has an area of low pressure in the SWCar at the end of its run, associated with an earlier AEW that runs over northern Central America.

[Spacecoast]

.

[ClarCari]

"You cannot look at curves in an individual season like that. We haven’t had a “average” season in over 25 years. Other years since either went below or above. The curve only applied to all seasons as a whole."

I cannot argue with that logic, almost every season goes either above,or below the average. The average for all seasons, includes the last 25 years.
Or are you saying that the average over the last 25 years is statistically different than the previous 160 years?
If so, what do you attribute that phenomenom to?

Well climate changes and fluctuation even if subtle can have an effect. And of course we have better technology in the past quarter century alone.

My biggest gripe is that I think we should do away with the measure of an “Average ATL Hurricane Season” and instead start measuring average based on the expected ENSO going into summer and then fall. The regular old “average” takes nothing else into account and is quite frankly a dumb statistic. Cumulative scores such as the Climatological Frequency of storms over time in a season make more sense because they don’t try to measure a meaningless mean in our arbitrary (yet still necessary) parameters aka. June-November being the official hurricane season.

Maybe then we can finally start comparing seasons to other seasons with similar conditions such as ENSO types that give us an actually useful statistical measure to use for better predictions and patterns.

[tolakram]

"You cannot look at curves in an individual season like that. We haven’t had a “average” season in over 25 years. Other years since either went below or above. The curve only applied to all seasons as a whole."

I cannot argue with that logic, almost every season goes either above,or below the average. The average for all seasons, includes the last 25 years.
Or are you saying that the average over the last 25 years is statistically different than the previous 160 years?
If so, what do you attribute that phenomenom to?

Well climate changes and fluctuation even if subtle can have an effect. And of course we have better technology in the past quarter century alone.

My biggest gripe is that I think we should do away with the measure of an “Average ATL Hurricane Season” and instead start measuring average based on the expected ENSO going into summer and then fall. The regular old “average” takes nothing else into account and is quite frankly a dumb statistic. Cumulative scores such as the Climatological Frequency of storms over time in a season make more sense because they don’t try to measure a meaningless mean in our arbitrary (yet still necessary) parameters aka. June-November being the official hurricane season.

Maybe then we can finally start comparing seasons to other seasons with similar conditions such as ENSO types that give us an actually useful statistical measure to use for better predictions and patterns.

We have other threads for conversations not involving current model runs please. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is pretty persistent here. Maybe this also ends up more west seeing how 95L is not paying attention to climo at all.

[Loveweather12]

I’m hearing that models are showing strong signal early November for development in Caribbean??
Is that true?

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

[Loveweather12]

The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

https://i.imgur.com/pi1AAbu.png

You think this could happen or could this be another fantasy? I’m not sure how conditions are supposed to be

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

https://i.imgur.com/pi1AAbu.png

For once this season this model actually shows something prior to an already developed system.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

https://i.imgur.com/pi1AAbu.png

Pretty big CCKW around that time.

[psyclone]

It's warm and wet late this year. I expect at least one November named storm and suspect the chance of a hurricane is meaningfully elevated relative to climo. Model pinging is likely legit

[SFLcane]

Here is your hurricane SFL..

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

https://i.imgur.com/pi1AAbu.png

You think this could happen or could this be another fantasy? I’m not sure how conditions are supposed to be

it always can be but the EPS doesn't typically fantasize. Of course it still is only 30% but 30% for it is like 75+% for the GEFS.

[Keldeo1997]

Meanwhile in the SATL.....
GFS wants to drop 2 TS in the SATL. First one forming in a day or two

[Argcane]

Meanwhile in the SATL.....
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716216274702696508/769721356929466388/gfs_mslp_pcpn_samer_6.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716216274702696508/769721051478884432/gfs_mslp_pcpn_samer_11.png GFS wants to drop 2 TS in the SATL. First one forming in a day or two

Well well well, what do we have here? This disturbance looks tropical, if not already a weak TD. Second thoughts?

[aspen]

A couple of models have shown the low pressure area off of the SEUS briefly becoming a TC. Could be something to watch over the next 2 days to see if it tries to steal the name Eta.

[Ryxn]

A couple of models have shown the low pressure area off of the SEUS briefly becoming a TC. Could be something to watch over the next 2 days to see if it tries to steal the name Eta.

Would also ruin my Eta-ETA pun lol but my thread title is bound to change once the disturbance forms. Hurricane Theta does have a more ominous tone to it than Eta in my opinion though.

[FireRat]

A couple of models have shown the low pressure area off of the SEUS briefly becoming a TC. Could be something to watch over the next 2 days to see if it tries to steal the name Eta.

Would also ruin my Eta-ETA pun lol but my thread title is bound to change once the disturbance forms. Hurricane Theta does have a more ominous tone to it than Eta in my opinion though.

Wow, just wow, that would be insane to have the mame Eta get stolen and have us left with the modeled November monster being Theta!
You know, there's a funny aspect to this name because I'm wondering how Spanish TV news stations would handle the name Theta... would it sound like TETA?
Teta is spanish for Titty, or Boob.