2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278373990965395457

I was just wondering that myself. I know the Atlantic wouldn't normally be very busy now, but what's going on with the Pacific? Is it just La Nina or something more?

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278378060836999169



If this is any indication, then the implications for the peak of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season are ominous, provided the Pacific remains quiet through all July.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278373990965395457

I was just wondering that myself. I know the Atlantic wouldn't normally be very busy now, but what's going on with the Pacific? Is it just La Nina or something more?

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278378060836999169
If this is any indication, then the implications for the peak of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season are ominous, provided the Pacific remains quiet through all July.

Yeah if anything this focuses all the energy in the Atlantic.

[Ubuntwo]

Surprised no one has mentioned this - the EPS shows the MDR picking up some steam. Wouldn't be surprised to see some activity around mid-July.

[floridasun78]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-07-01-12Z_240_20.292_287.79_3.285_358.324_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
Surprised no one has mentioned this - the EPS shows the MDR picking up some steam. Wouldn't be surprised to see some activity around mid-July.

because we seen how strong SAL been past week or so their more SAL coming out afica

[TheStormExpert]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-07-01-12Z_240_20.292_287.79_3.285_358.324_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
Surprised no one has mentioned this - the EPS shows the MDR picking up some steam. Wouldn't be surprised to see some activity around mid-July.

It’s been doing so for the past week or two. Need to see more of a signal and less SAL.

[Ubuntwo]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-07-01-12Z_240_20.292_287.79_3.285_358.324_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
Surprised no one has mentioned this - the EPS shows the MDR picking up some steam. Wouldn't be surprised to see some activity around mid-July.

It’s been doing so for the past week or two. Need to see more of a signal and less SAL.

This is the most active EPS run for the MDR since 96L. SAL will continue to decrease through the month, and as long as the energy stays within the ITCZ dry air shouldn't be an issue.

It's still not incredibly active, it's just a sign that the MDR could start warming up soon.

[aspen]

0z GFS continues forming the 40N/60W system on Saturday, but at the same time, a weaker TC pops up to the SW, closer to the SEUS coast.

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS continues forming the 40N/60W system on Saturday, but at the same time, a weaker TC pops up to the SW, closer to the SEUS coast.

The system at 40N isn't exactly tropical

[Shell Mound]

Breaking news: the 00Z ECMWF actually shows a long-range hurricane in the EPAC.

[Ivanhater]

06z Gfs hangs the boundary out in the Gulf long enough to spin up a strong tropical storm or hurricane

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[OuterBanker]

06z Gfs hangs the boundary out in the Gulf long enough to spin up a strong tropical storm or hurricane https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200702/2f5177635576e892cc993359770cbd4c.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yes, I noticed the Biloxi bomb, of course we all know how accurate the 384 hr GFS is.

[storm4u]

One ensemble member take a 994mb low along the outer banks and tracks it to Cape Cod.
Watching what further runs do.

https://i.imgur.com/E3DDrq6.png

Do you have think link for this I cant find it in my favorites. Thank you

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

Thank you!!

[Shell Mound]

The past several runs of the ECMWF-OP have been hinting at development in the MDR by mid-July. However, the EPS is notably less bullish.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS shows a developing tropical cyclone on July 12, just off the MS River Delta region and coming onshore the Louisiana coast.

00Z EURO spins up a tropical cyclone in the same general vicinity near the end of the next 240 hour period in the run late last night.

We could be seeing an active period of close to home grown development over the next 7-10 days, including the current developing system in the Apalachee Bay this 4th of July weekend.

[cycloneye]

Is very long range but is the first time GFS has this on MDR in 2020. Let's see what occurs down the road.

[TheStormExpert]

Is very long range but is the first time GFS has this on MDR in 2020. Let's see what occurs down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/ht19670.gif

It’s a low-rider so it might have a chance. Let’s see if future runs continue to show this.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1279428549586440193

[cycloneye]

This is GFS with the wave now in Eastern Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280654763852472321

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280851714699075584

[SFLcane]

For FL this wave might be one to watch.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1280893737543950336