2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

The system still appears on the 18z run, and the EPac system does form before plowing into Central America and crossing into the Caribbean.

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z ECM ENS at 20% chance of TS development over the South Central Gulf Sunday to Tuesday.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS looks pretty CAG-y . Also has something off the SECONUS.

[StruThiO]

[northjaxpro]

The models are bringing a rather strong front for May deep down into the Gulf of Mexico and even passes through South Florida by Monday. The front stalls out across the Southern GOM and off the Southeast CONUS coastline into early next week. Models are definitely picking up on Low Pressure potentially forming early next week somewhere along that stalled boundary from the Southern GOM or SE GOM or off the Southeast U.S. Coast or in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Chances of seeing our first potential tropical cyclone of the early season are gradually improving as time progresses.

It is looking more and more intriguing with the model runs as we get into Sunday and into early next week.

[toad strangler]

00z Euro bringing what looks like a fast moving Low to the ENE at 144 hrs

[cycloneye]

Apart from GFS and ECMWF, the ICON model that is a good one has the GOM area for May 10.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1257671467191369729

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1257694038532202505

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1257694684966576130

[cycloneye]

12z ICON.

[toad strangler]

12z ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/uYLYlxt.gif

Very 2013 Tropical Storm Andrea like, albeit 3 weeks earlier.

[TheStormExpert]

12z ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/uYLYlxt.gif

The ICON is a bad model to follow, it did terrible at least in terms of track of Hurricane Dorian last year and kept insisting on a landfall in SE Florida while all the others were showing a sharp turn to the north over Grand Bahama Island.

[psyclone]

It's still a long way out and subject to significant revision but, FWIW the WPC QPF output confines decent rainfall to south florida (east and south of lake O). It's a strikeout north of there.

[boca]

Do you have the link to the QPF map?

[SFLcane]

Do you have the link to the QPF map?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[TheStormExpert]

Shouldn’t be tropical nature as it will remain attached to the front.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1257705767316094977

[SFLcane]

Shouldn’t be tropical nature as it will remain attached to the front.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1257705767316094977

Designation isn’t important here it’s May. Flooding and severe wx certainly a possibility across the Florida peninsula later this weekend into early next week.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Don't know much about this guy at all but first impressions are not good. He swings back and forth between yelling at those using 240 hr plus maps and then uses them himself

http://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1257388274852782086?s=20

Sub-tropical storm Arthur maybe. Not looking very Tropical at least in those images. Of course it could always gain tropical characteristics if it is over the Gulf Stream long enough.

[TheStormExpert]

Shouldn’t be tropical nature as it will remain attached to the front.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1257705767316094977

Designation isn’t important here it’s May. Flooding and severe wx certainly a possibility across the Florida peninsula later this weekend into early next week.

Well we could use the rain, not the severe weather though!

Should get interesting down here in S.FL starting Sunday and into next week.