2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

Wow! 00z EPS starting to light up around August 23-28.

[captainbarbossa19]

Wow! 00z EPS starting to light up around August 23-28.
https://i.imgur.com/KaxY1jk_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

It's hard to tell from the image, but it looks like a few models are showing a potential hurricane in the NW Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Let's see if this trend continues.

[aspen]

Wow! 00z EPS starting to light up around August 23-28.
https://i.imgur.com/KaxY1jk_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

It's hard to tell from the image, but it looks like a few models are showing a potential hurricane in the NW Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Let's see if this trend continues.

You’re right, one of the ensemble members has a sub-950 mbar major in the Gulf. A bunch of members have at least a strong TS or a weak hurricane forming from an AEW in the MDR or Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

Active look of the african coast on the EPS.

https://i.imgur.com/H9ZGF2a.png

https://i.imgur.com/E94MMsC.png

https://i.imgur.com/eGvUwtZ.png

Now why do those tracks look familiar.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues to keep the activity on the EPAC side and even into the super-long range. It does have a vigorous wave traversing there Atlantic MDR which it shows reaching the SW Atlantic by end-of-month (this wave will need watching) but looks like the GFS is not showing the lid coming off or anything that is climatologically abnormal rest of this month:

[captainbarbossa19]

12Z GFS continues to keep the activity on the EPAC side and even into the super-long range. It does have a vigorous wave traversing there Atlantic MDR which it shows reaching the SW Atlantic by end-of-month (this wave will need watching) but looks like the GFS is not showing the lid coming off or anything that is climatologically abnormal rest of this month:

https://i.postimg.cc/jdfXpznK/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-58.png

https://i.postimg.cc/fbc1DG3z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-57.png

We're probably just going to have to watch every wave that moves off the coast of Africa. The models may have a hard time detecting any activity until something is there. This has been a recurring problem every year it seems.

[MississippiWx]

I wonder how many of the soon to be 11 named storms the GFS has predicted this season? On the flip side, I wonder how many storms the GFS has predicted to occur in the EPac that haven’t come to fruition?

[EquusStorm]

The GFS seemed to perform very well catching the genesis of the EPac mini-outbreak but has tended to dramatically overestimate their potential; wouldn't be shocked to get several more TDs there into September and yet more mostly missed spinups on this side lol

[mcheer23]

GEFS-PARA has been all systems go later this month pretty much every run...

[crownweather]

GEFS-PARA has been all systems go later this month pretty much every run...

Given what we are actually seeing in terms of the MJO pulse pushing into the Atlantic shortly, I think the GEFS-Parallel may be closer to reality than the deterministic GFS model. Also, the EPS model seems to be lighting things up in a hurry around the same time as the GEFS-PARA.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with just some waves but no development through 10 days:

[AutoPenalti]

I don't buy that inactive period during the next 2 weeks.

[WxEp]

12z EPS now showing several areas to pay attention to over the next 10 days - after 96L and Josephine.

1. Near Mexico.
2. Central Caribbean
3. South Central Atlantic.
4. Just coming off Africa.

[MarioProtVI]

12Z GFS continues to keep the activity on the EPAC side and even into the super-long range. It does have a vigorous wave traversing there Atlantic MDR which it shows reaching the SW Atlantic by end-of-month (this wave will need watching) but looks like the GFS is not showing the lid coming off or anything that is climatologically abnormal rest of this month:

https://i.postimg.cc/jdfXpznK/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-58.png

https://i.postimg.cc/fbc1DG3z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-57.png

The GFS seems to have an EPac bias with not moving the MJO into the Atlantic fast enough compared to the other models so we can discard that part for now.

[aspen]

18z GFS is showing even more EPac activity after 7 days than the last few runs. It just won’t give up.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS is showing even more EPac activity after 7 days than the last few runs. It just won’t give up.

Or it could be on to something? More EPAC activity could shut down parts of the western Atlantic and keep storms weaker. Starting to lean towards more named storms than my original estimate but less hurricanes/majors.

[CyclonicFury]

It's hard to take the GFS showing constant EPAC activity seriously when the model has a known bias of keeping the MJO in Phase 8/over central America too long. Most recent ECMWF operational runs have been showing little to no Atlantic activity as well, though the EPS has been showing some off and on development with a few waves.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is showing even more EPac activity after 7 days than the last few runs. It just won’t give up.

Or it could be on to something? More EPAC activity could shut down parts of the western Atlantic and keep storms weaker. Starting to lean towards more named storms than my original estimate but less hurricanes/majors.

Models are tools. They aren't crystal balls. ESPECIALLY after 5 days.

[KAlexPR]

18z GFS is showing even more EPac activity after 7 days than the last few runs. It just won’t give up.

Or it could be on to something? More EPAC activity could shut down parts of the western Atlantic and keep storms weaker. Starting to lean towards more named storms than my original estimate but less hurricanes/majors.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960

[Monsoonjr99]

This GFS MJO bias is also to blame for the unseasonable CAG-like feature it's been showing. If anything forms in the Caribbean/GoM around that timeframe, it'd be from an AEW, otherwise whatever the GFS shows is a phantom.