2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm going to have to go to Tropical Tidbits Anonymous after this season is over!!! It's like a sports player with a nasty broken leg. You know it's terrible but you just have to look!!!

[kevin]

All the way at +384 so way beyond any reasonable time frame, but I just wanted to share this one because it seems 06z GFS landfalls a strong hurricane in Venezuela. Not that it will happen now (I'd put the odds at <<1%), but I don't think a hurricane like this has ever made landfall in Venezuela, at least in modern history.

[jconsor]

Don't confuse the GFS performance on tropical cyclone formation with the upgraded GEFS. That's like claiming soy hot dogs and regular ones have similar nutritional value

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318892500342444032




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318893314385563651

[Spacecoast]

Don't confuse the GFS performance on tropical cyclone formation with the upgraded GEFS. That's like claiming soy hot dogs and regular ones have similar nutritional value

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318892500342444032

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1318893314385563651

Ensembles are powerful, but tricky to understand, & often mis-interpreted, IMHO.

These are my two favorite papers on Ensembles... I'm just an amatuer (still learning)..

Exploitation of Ensemble PredictionSystem Information in Support of AtlanticTropical Cyclogenesis Prediction -Alan Brammer
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/05%20Thorncroft_Ensemble_Genesis.pdf

Ensembles, Anomalies, and Analogs - Michael Buchanan Science and Operations Officer NWS Corpus Christi
https://www.weather.gov/media/crp/Ensembles_Anomalies_Analogs_Buchanan.pdf

[LarryWx]

Her is the 12Z GEFS and this isn't from the end of the run

[AnnularCane]

Why am I feeling a sense of deja vu?

[SFLcane]

Her is the 12Z GEFS and this isn't from the end of the run

https://i.imgur.com/tzYVAJ9.png

12z? You mean 18z which AGAIN is happy hour time. I am not sure i by into any of this new gibberish the gfs is on to.

[ElectricStorm]

Her is the 12Z GEFS and this isn't from the end of the run

https://i.imgur.com/tzYVAJ9.png

12z? You mean 18z which AGAIN is happy hour time. I am not sure i by into any of this new gibberish the gfs is on to.

I'm not buying it right now either... But, this one actually has a trackable source (wave), unlike the Western Caribbean ghost

[LarryWx]

Her is the 12Z GEFS and this isn't from the end of the run

https://i.imgur.com/tzYVAJ9.png

12z? You mean 18z which AGAIN is happy hour time. I am not sure i by into any of this new gibberish the gfs is on to.

No, this is 12Z. Happy Hour GEFS hasn't gone that far out yet. The 18Z ensemble just got to the bar and is having its first drink. It still hasn't had time to get drunk.

PS Its favorite drink is Pina Colada to get it into a tropical mood and go crazy. Actually all 31 members fill up the bar and drink together.

[LarryWx]

Her is the 12Z GEFS and this isn't from the end of the run

https://i.imgur.com/tzYVAJ9.png

12z? You mean 18z which AGAIN is happy hour time. I am not sure i by into any of this new gibberish the gfs is on to.

Here's the 18Z GEFS. Well dang, it looks like the members started drinking early.

[SFLcane]

Gfs...

[AutoPenalti]

I’m so done with the GFS and it’s 16 day lies.

[aspen]

Gfs...

https://i.imgur.com/cGz07v1.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SfeE3oj.gif

At least there’s a trackable source this time.

Like I said before, I won’t be taking this seriously unless the models still show the system forming at this time next week, and it’s in the same time frame (Oct 30th-Nov 4th).

[ElectricStorm]

Gfs...

https://i.imgur.com/cGz07v1.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SfeE3oj.gif

At least there’s a trackable source this time.

Like I said before, I won’t be taking this seriously unless the models still show the system forming at this time next week, and it’s in the same time frame (Oct 30th-Nov 4th).

Yeah same here

[ElectricStorm]

GFS back at it again at 0z. Has a Cat 1 over the Bahamas in fantasy land. #nothappening

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll just leave this here so everyone can get their nightly dose of GFS drama!!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

long-range gfs and the gefs are like the boy who cried wolf to be honest.

all bark, no bite

[LarryWx]

long-range gfs and the gefs are like the boy who cried wolf to be honest.

all bark, no bite

0Z GEFS: not nearly as active as prior two runs.

[kevin]

06z GFS ensemble is quite active in the long-term, but I think that after what happened last time not a lot of people will put high value on it until it's at least twice as close in terms of time.

[aspen]

We might have to watch both the SW and E Caribbean for development next week. A strong tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles will likely run over northern South America, but the CMC and GFS suggest it could emerge over the SWCar around Halloween. Then there’s another AEW that’ll reach the LAs around Halloween/the first days of November, and it could develop. I think the GFS is still suffering from typical long-range “massive mess of vorticity and precipitation” and “end of run MH” biases with this, but I’m not writing off chances of development unless all models give up on it next week.