2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#221 Postby N2FSU » Thu May 28, 2020 4:50 am

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0z Euro ensembles


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#222 Postby kevin » Thu May 28, 2020 5:52 am

GFS 06z goes crazy near the end of the run. As a significant numbers of the 0z Euro members in the post above me also suggest, it has the initial system relatively stagnant around the coast. It looked like it was gonna cross, but in the end it decides not to and drifts West, intensifying into a hurricane with a pressure of 967 mbar at 210 hours. The final push that makes sure it doesn't cross into the Atlantic seems to occur around 150 hours in this run. But then when you think it's all over an appendage of the original system does cross into the Atlantic near Nicaragua and moves North, hitting Cuba as a hurricane with a pressure of 954 mbar. The last thing only happens at 312 hours so well into the fantasy region, but the initial circulation already seems to start around 70 hours with a pressure of 1001 mbar at 78 hours already so I think it's safe to say that, whatever happens, some kind of tropical storm formation is probable.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#223 Postby supercane4867 » Thu May 28, 2020 6:43 am

06z GFS on steroids.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#224 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu May 28, 2020 7:11 am

Fantasyland or not, it’s becoming prominent that something is going to form from the CAG.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#225 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 28, 2020 7:22 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Fantasyland or not, it’s becoming prominent that something is going to form from the CAG.


Given the EPS continues to be fairly busy long range (past Day 10) I think it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#226 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 28, 2020 7:59 am

At this point it really is not fantasy land for something to crossover/redevelop in the NW carrib or BOC>

at 96 hours which is not that far out for the Euro it already has the system inland over Belize, Mexico and Nicarugua.

and being that it will likely be heavily weighted to the NE with convection it really is not that uncommon for something to reform in the NW carrib.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#227 Postby aspen » Thu May 28, 2020 8:04 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Fantasyland or not, it’s becoming prominent that something is going to form from the CAG.

Looks like it’ll be one of two scenarios: either the remnants of the EPac system spawn something in the Gulf, or a separate system develops in the SW Caribbean. The GFS has been forecasting the latter for the last few days and goes absolutely nuts with it in the long-range in the 06z run. While a Cat 2 storm roaming the Caribbean in mid-June is highly unlikely, I think there’s a decent shot a TS could form in the region and timeframe the GFS has been predicting.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#228 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu May 28, 2020 9:12 am

Some sort of development weekend-after-next looks very possible with multiple models showing something.

Would handily beat 2012 in terms of the earliest 3rd named storm.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#229 Postby Siker » Thu May 28, 2020 9:16 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Some sort of development weekend-after-next looks very possible with multiple models showing something.

Would handily beat 2012 in terms of the earliest 3rd named storm.


2016 took the crown actually with Colin on June 5th (though I personally consider Alex to belong to the 2015 season more than the 2016 season...)
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#230 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu May 28, 2020 9:16 am

Siker wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Some sort of development weekend-after-next looks very possible with multiple models showing something.

Would handily beat 2012 in terms of the earliest 3rd named storm.


2016 took the crown actually with Colin on June 5th (though I personally consider Alex to belong to the 2015 season more than the 2016 season...)


I forgot about Colin!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#231 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 28, 2020 9:50 am

Who says we can’t have a Wilma in June? :roll:

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#232 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 10:18 am

SFLcane wrote:Who says we can’t have a Wilma in June? :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/R4yxmrM.png

Only the CMC! :lol:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#233 Postby aspen » Thu May 28, 2020 10:24 am

I mean...a major hurricane within the Gulf or western Caribbean in June isn't too ridiculous. MPIs and SSTs in parts of these regions are certainly high enough, especially in the SW Caribbean closer to the Central American coast.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#234 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu May 28, 2020 10:30 am

SFLcane wrote:Who says we can’t have a Wilma in June? :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/R4yxmrM.png

It's possible, but the CMC probably won't verify of course.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#235 Postby toad strangler » Thu May 28, 2020 11:15 am

I would think that Texas or the upper gulf coast would be a target thinking just in a climatology sense. Should this develop.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#236 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 11:18 am

Siker wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Some sort of development weekend-after-next looks very possible with multiple models showing something.

Would handily beat 2012 in terms of the earliest 3rd named storm.


2016 took the crown actually with Colin on June 5th (though I personally consider Alex to belong to the 2015 season more than the 2016 season...)

Alex was too out of season in my opinion to count for either season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#237 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 28, 2020 11:33 am

toad strangler wrote:I would think that Texas or the upper gulf coast would be a target thinking just in a climatology sense. Should this develop.


I guess it all depends on where the trough will be.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#238 Postby aspen » Thu May 28, 2020 11:56 am

The 12z GFS run takes the EPac system into CA, but it’s remnants move west and redevelop back in the EPac. The SW Caribbean system, meanwhile, gets sucked up into the associated circulation.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#239 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 12:13 pm

The 12z GFS pushes the date back so I’m starting to wonder if this is a phantom storm, like we’ve seen many times in this region this time of year from this particular model.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#240 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 28, 2020 12:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The 12z GFS pushes the date back so I’m starting to wonder if this is a phantom storm, like we’ve seen many times in this region this time of year from this particular model.


How does it push the date back? It shows development fairly soon. It just doesn’t have it moving north crossing over.
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