2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#241 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 12:17 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The 12z GFS pushes the date back so I’m starting to wonder if this is a phantom storm, like we’ve seen many times in this region this time of year from this particular model.


How does it push the date back? It shows development fairly soon. It just doesn’t have it moving north crossing over.

Development is beyond the reliable 10 day range. I’m just being extra cautious knowing the bias the model once had concerning CAG’s.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#242 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 28, 2020 12:18 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The 12z GFS pushes the date back so I’m starting to wonder if this is a phantom storm, like we’ve seen many times in this region this time of year from this particular model.


How does it push the date back? It shows development fairly soon. It just doesn’t have it moving north crossing over.

Development is beyond the reliable 10 day range. I’m just being extra cautious knowing the bias the model once had concerning CAG’s.


I think we’re talking about a completely different system then cuz I’m seeing one that develops in a few days
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#243 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 12:20 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
How does it push the date back? It shows development fairly soon. It just doesn’t have it moving north crossing over.

Development is beyond the reliable 10 day range. I’m just being extra cautious knowing the bias the model once had concerning CAG’s.


I think we’re talking about a completely different system then cuz I’m seeing one that develops in a few days

Are you talking about that quick little spin up low that goes straight west into Nicaragua?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#244 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu May 28, 2020 12:27 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Siker wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Some sort of development weekend-after-next looks very possible with multiple models showing something.

Would handily beat 2012 in terms of the earliest 3rd named storm.


2016 took the crown actually with Colin on June 5th (though I personally consider Alex to belong to the 2015 season more than the 2016 season...)


I forgot about Colin!


I don't really believe in the whole 'waste of a name' thing but if I was to choose one it would probably be Colin. Most hideous non tropical looking storm ever :D
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#245 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 28, 2020 12:29 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Development is beyond the reliable 10 day range. I’m just being extra cautious knowing the bias the model once had concerning CAG’s.


I think we’re talking about a completely different system then cuz I’m seeing one that develops in a few days

Are you talking about that quick little spin up low that goes straight west into Nicaragua?


I’m talking about the one in the epac rn that the NHC has an 80% chance of development on. That’s the one that models have been showing crossing over. Whatever else y’all are talking about I’m not sure lol
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#246 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 12:33 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Siker wrote:
2016 took the crown actually with Colin on June 5th (though I personally consider Alex to belong to the 2015 season more than the 2016 season...)


I forgot about Colin!


I don't really believe in the whole 'waste of a name' thing but if I was to choose one it would probably be Colin. Most hideous non tropical looking storm ever :D

There’s been quite a few name wasters over the past decade. Like you said Colin (2016) is one along with Andrea (2019), Erin (2019) didn’t look that great, that just names a few from just last season alone! :lol:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#247 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 28, 2020 12:36 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The 12z GFS pushes the date back so I’m starting to wonder if this is a phantom storm, like we’ve seen many times in this region this time of year from this particular model.


Good point. Look back to the 12Z GFS run from exactly one week ago. It had the storm developing in the western Caribbean Sea this coming weekend. It keeps getting later and later with development.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#248 Postby Siker » Thu May 28, 2020 12:42 pm

Yes the GFS has been pushing back the random spinup it does in the far SW Caribbean, but the TC in the EPAC that gets shoved north into Central America and possibly redevelops in the Atlantic or Pacific is consistently in the next 4-6 days on all models and forms from the disturbance currently crossing Nicaragua.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#249 Postby Dylan » Thu May 28, 2020 12:46 pm

Just like every other time, the global models are going to struggle with a mammoth CAG, especially before it coalesces.

The GFS is clearly having significant feedback issues in its medium & long range, so I would be especially careful when looking at it.

If anything were to develop, its going to be slow, as it takes a long time for all that heat energy to bundle into a tropical cyclone. Especially when you're factoring land interaction & potentially hostile atmospheric conditions, which shouldn't be a surprise since we're talking early June.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#250 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 28, 2020 12:59 pm

Siker wrote:Yes the GFS has been pushing back the random spinup it does in the far SW Caribbean, but the TC in the EPAC that gets shoved north into Central America and possibly redevelops in the Atlantic or Pacific is consistently in the next 4-6 days on all models and forms from the disturbance currently crossing Nicaragua.


Yes! That’s what I’m talking about. I couldn’t care less what the GFS is showing past a week out. I don’t even pay attention to it.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#251 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 1:24 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Siker wrote:Yes the GFS has been pushing back the random spinup it does in the far SW Caribbean, but the TC in the EPAC that gets shoved north into Central America and possibly redevelops in the Atlantic or Pacific is consistently in the next 4-6 days on all models and forms from the disturbance currently crossing Nicaragua.


Yes! That’s what I’m talking about. I couldn’t care less what the GFS is showing past a week out. I don’t even pay attention to it.

First we have to see if something can manage to cross over from the East Pacific over into the Western Caribbean or BoC. It’s easier said than done! I know there’s been quite a few storms cross from the Western Caribbean into the East Pacific but they too have fallen apart upon doing so at some point.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#252 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu May 28, 2020 4:23 pm

And really, CAGs are obnoxious to try and model. So many minute and subtle interactions that have significant consequence. CAGs are also notoriously messy and take time to sort themselves out.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#253 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu May 28, 2020 6:14 pm

The GFS has switched back to much earlier development from the gyre, shows how little individual runs mean this far out.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#254 Postby Steve » Thu May 28, 2020 7:24 pm

Sorry about the repost. I screwed up and accidentally posted it in the EPAC thread but wanted it here.

All the major models show organized low pressure in the Gulf in the 2 week realm. It looks like the MJO will be all the way back to Phase 8 (at 7) tomorrow. Different models have different solutions, but it looks like the CPC's forecast is closest to the JMA's prediction. EC is weird and goes into one but then loops an oval through the circle and back into 1. EC would likely have any Gulf action later though you could see something around the Yucatan or BoC kind of mulling around for a few days if it is right.

In my mind, with the gyre setting up, MJO moving into favorable territory and nearby EPAC/S Gulf water temperature profiles, I think the chances are increasing for a named storm in the Gulf in 10-15 days. Some of the models have hinted at something potentially significant in the longer term, but we're now getting into a shorter window with probably a week or so to watch pattern evolution and see if they were sniffing out legitimate development or the usual June phantom ****. Hard to say what happens with June systems. They are known to peel off to the NE. They are known to sometimes come straight up. Sometimes they'll blow left. Sometimes the westerlies are still stronger. But some years you can have minimal steering currents as spring transitions into summer. So if we do get something, it will be interesting to see what some of the controlling mechanisms and potential steering players come into play. Along with that, what is the movement potential? June systems can often be wet when they take their time moving out. So besides where it might go, an important factor will be how fast it can move be it anywhere from Southern Mexico to South Florida.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#255 Postby floridasun78 » Thu May 28, 2020 8:35 pm

in the synoptic picture is the potential for a low developing over the west Caribbean Sea, that what miami weather office say today Area Forecast Discussion so notice that on models runs today
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#256 Postby NDG » Thu May 28, 2020 10:44 pm

The GFS as always jumps the gun too soon when it comes to development with monsoonal low pressure areas. The MJO is going to be in Phase 1 & into phase 2 over the next 10 days or so. Development on the Atlantic side from the MJO may not be until closer to the following weekend. The GEFS is still persistent that UL winds will improve in the western Caribbean/southern GOM by then.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#257 Postby Cpv17 » Fri May 29, 2020 1:48 am

The 0z Euro has development starting at 192 hours in the BOC.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#258 Postby NDG » Fri May 29, 2020 6:41 am

The Euro as always over doing ridging on its 7-10 day range. Is looking more and more that what ever forms or does not form in the southern GOM will move north towards the gulf coast.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#259 Postby aspen » Fri May 29, 2020 7:27 am

The ICON tries developing something in the BOC from the remnants of the EPac system by only 120 hr out:
Image

The Euro also tries as well, but similar to the GFS, it's showing a back-and-forth pattern: the EPac system makes landfall, comes back over open waters, makes a second CA landfall, tries to spawn something in the Gulf, and then moves out again.
Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#260 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 11:58 am

Today's 12z GFS does quickly spin-up something up off the Nicaraguan coast in a weeks time but it moves into the Nicaragua/Honduras border within a day and dissipates.

Meanwhile a major hurricane develops in the East Pacific just south of Mexico in a weeks time and dies a week later.

FANTASY LAND:

After in fantasy land the same low/storm re-develops just north of Honduras on June 10th and moves NW towards the coast of Belize where it quickly develops into a 1000mb TS on June 11th...
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