2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#261 Postby aspen » Fri May 29, 2020 12:39 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Today's 12z GFS does quickly spin-up something up off the Nicaraguan coast in a weeks time but it moves into the Nicaragua/Honduras border within a day and dissipates.

Meanwhile a major hurricane develops in the East Pacific just south of Mexico in a weeks time and dies a week later.

FANTASY LAND:

After in fantasy land the same low/storm re-develops just north of Honduras on June 10th and moves NW towards the coast of Belize where it quickly develops into a 1000mb TS on June 11th...

Is it even possible for a weak TS to regenerate back in the EPac after making landfall in Central America?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#262 Postby NDG » Fri May 29, 2020 12:46 pm

On the latest 12z GFS, it has a stronger ridge on days 5-10 over the SE US than what last night's Euro showed, the reason it keeps the system down in MX and EPAC side.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#263 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri May 29, 2020 1:00 pm

aspen wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Today's 12z GFS does quickly spin-up something up off the Nicaraguan coast in a weeks time but it moves into the Nicaragua/Honduras border within a day and dissipates.

Meanwhile a major hurricane develops in the East Pacific just south of Mexico in a weeks time and dies a week later.

FANTASY LAND:

After in fantasy land the same low/storm re-develops just north of Honduras on June 10th and moves NW towards the coast of Belize where it quickly develops into a 1000mb TS on June 11th...

Is it even possible for a weak TS to regenerate back in the EPac after making landfall in Central America?


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Paul_(1982) - Hurricane Paul in 1982 did just that. It struck Guatemala, dissipated, and regenerated after moving westward over open waters.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#264 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 2:09 pm

aspen wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Today's 12z GFS does quickly spin-up something up off the Nicaraguan coast in a weeks time but it moves into the Nicaragua/Honduras border within a day and dissipates.

Meanwhile a major hurricane develops in the East Pacific just south of Mexico in a weeks time and dies a week later.

FANTASY LAND:

After in fantasy land the same low/storm re-develops just north of Honduras on June 10th and moves NW towards the coast of Belize where it quickly develops into a 1000mb TS on June 11th...

Is it even possible for a weak TS to regenerate back in the EPac after making landfall in Central America?

No it regenerates back in the NW Caribbean just north of the Honduras coast.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#265 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 2:11 pm

NDG wrote:On the latest 12z GFS, it has a stronger ridge on days 5-10 over the SE US than what last night's Euro showed, the reason it keeps the system down in MX and EPAC side.

https://i.imgur.com/HbTY37e.png
https://i.imgur.com/QsBsF4Y.png

But even if it enters the Gulf will conditions be all that favorable? Last nights Euro didn’t really show much if any development.

Same goes with today’s 12z Euro, little development at best in the western Gulf.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#266 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri May 29, 2020 2:17 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:On the latest 12z GFS, it has a stronger ridge on days 5-10 over the SE US than what last night's Euro showed, the reason it keeps the system down in MX and EPAC side.

https://i.imgur.com/HbTY37e.png
https://i.imgur.com/QsBsF4Y.png

But even if it enters the Gulf will conditions be all that favorable? Last nights Euro didn’t really show much if any development.

Same goes with today’s 12z Euro, little development at best in the western Gulf.

There is potential for strengthening but it seems to hinge on how fast this thing can come together. In the latest run it stays pretty loose and broad for a while before organizing shortly before landfall and deepening to 1006. Some EPS members have the system coming together faster, and those are the ones that get it the strongest.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#267 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri May 29, 2020 2:48 pm

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#268 Postby NDG » Fri May 29, 2020 3:27 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:On the latest 12z GFS, it has a stronger ridge on days 5-10 over the SE US than what last night's Euro showed, the reason it keeps the system down in MX and EPAC side.

https://i.imgur.com/HbTY37e.png
https://i.imgur.com/QsBsF4Y.png

But even if it enters the Gulf will conditions be all that favorable? Last nights Euro didn’t really show much if any development.

Same goes with today’s 12z Euro, little development at best in the western Gulf.


Operational doesn't show much strengthening, weak to mod TS at best with the UL anticyclone displaced to the SE of the low level vorticity as it usually happens with very early season systems. It shows a lot of rain heading the NW gulf coast, unlike the GFS.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#269 Postby gatorcane » Fri May 29, 2020 5:56 pm

Zip through 264 hours on the GFS as far as EPAC crossover and GOM development. Looks like the model is finally coming to its senses with its feedback issues.

Whatever may form in the Gulf looks messy and the environment probably won’t be very conducive with dry air and shear as is typical this time of year, not to mention the area looks like it will be very broad.

I am not very enthusiastic about anything significant coming from this.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#270 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri May 29, 2020 6:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:Zip through 264 hours on the GFS as far as EPAC crossover and GOM development. Looks like the model is finally coming to its senses with its feedback issues.

Whatever may form in the Gulf looks messy and the environment probably won’t be very conducive with dry air and shear as is typical this time of year.

The euro ensembles are more active than ever, so there’s a balance somewhere. The most likely system is a sheared moderate tropical storm, which is what almost every model including the GFS has been showing for the past couple days.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#271 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 7:01 pm

What did I tell you guys! Another case of the GFS Phantom Storms. :lol:

I can’t believe they never fix this issue!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#272 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 7:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:Zip through 264 hours on the GFS as far as EPAC crossover and GOM development. Looks like the model is finally coming to its senses with its feedback issues.

Whatever may form in the Gulf looks messy and the environment probably won’t be very conducive with dry air and shear as is typical this time of year, not to mention the area looks like it will be very broad.

I am not very enthusiastic about anything significant coming from this.

A few days ago many were stating how the environment in the Western Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico would become more favorable. I guess that’s not the case now? Isn’t an Kelvin Wave and the MJO supposed to pass our region next week or so? If so why no tropical development?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#273 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 29, 2020 7:08 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Zip through 264 hours on the GFS as far as EPAC crossover and GOM development. Looks like the model is finally coming to its senses with its feedback issues.

Whatever may form in the Gulf looks messy and the environment probably won’t be very conducive with dry air and shear as is typical this time of year, not to mention the area looks like it will be very broad.

I am not very enthusiastic about anything significant coming from this.

A few days ago many were stating how the environment in the Western Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico would become more favorable. I guess that’s not the case now? Isn’t an Kelvin Wave and the MJO supposed to pass our region next week or so? If so why no tropical development?

Both the GEFS and EPS still have a strong development signal. It's too early to assume this won't develop. CAGs are complicated.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#274 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 7:11 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Zip through 264 hours on the GFS as far as EPAC crossover and GOM development. Looks like the model is finally coming to its senses with its feedback issues.

Whatever may form in the Gulf looks messy and the environment probably won’t be very conducive with dry air and shear as is typical this time of year, not to mention the area looks like it will be very broad.

I am not very enthusiastic about anything significant coming from this.

A few days ago many were stating how the environment in the Western Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico would become more favorable. I guess that’s not the case now? Isn’t an Kelvin Wave and the MJO supposed to pass our region next week or so? If so why no tropical development?

Both the GEFS and EPS still have a strong development signal. It's too early to assume this won't develop. CAGs are complicated.

This tweet might explain things.

 https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1266442998524645377




The CAG is developing on the East Pacific side as opposed to directly over Central America.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#275 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 29, 2020 7:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:A few days ago many were stating how the environment in the Western Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico would become more favorable. I guess that’s not the case now? Isn’t an Kelvin Wave and the MJO supposed to pass our region next week or so? If so why no tropical development?

Both the GEFS and EPS still have a strong development signal. It's too early to assume this won't develop. CAGs are complicated.

This tweet might explain things.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1266442998524645377

The CAG is developing on the East Pacific side as opposed to directly over Central America.

To be fair models have been showing this for a while. Most of the models that show GOM development show 91E's remnants being absorbed into the gyre and leading the formation of a new TC in the SW GOM.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#276 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri May 29, 2020 7:15 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What did I tell you guys! Another case of the GFS Phantom Storms. :lol:

I can’t believe they never fix this issue!

Image
^euro ensembles, it's not just a GFS phantom, especially considering the impulse already exists in the form of 91E and a central american gyre. On the latest run the energy of 91E never crosses over prohibiting formation, this can be attributed to much stronger ridging on this run, not convective feedback as is generally the case with phantoms.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#277 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2020 7:15 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Both the GEFS and EPS still have a strong development signal. It's too early to assume this won't develop. CAGs are complicated.

This tweet might explain things.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1266442998524645377

The CAG is developing on the East Pacific side as opposed to directly over Central America.

To be fair models have been showing this for a while. Most of the models that show GOM development show 91E's remnants being absorbed into the gyre and leading the formation of a new TC in the SW GOM.

But if conditions aren't favorable there nothing will develop.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#278 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri May 29, 2020 7:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:This tweet might explain things.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1266442998524645377

The CAG is developing on the East Pacific side as opposed to directly over Central America.

To be fair models have been showing this for a while. Most of the models that show GOM development show 91E's remnants being absorbed into the gyre and leading the formation of a new TC in the SW GOM.

But if conditions aren't favorable there nothing will develop.

It's not a question of favorable conditions, it's a question if whether ridging will allow a crossover in the first place.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#279 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat May 30, 2020 2:12 am

NADA on the 00z GFS run, but the 00z GEFS Ensembles are still somewhat enthusiastic. Meanwhile the 00z Euro briefly spins something weak up in eight days before moving into SE Texas, still waiting on the 00z Euro Ensembles to see if they’re still as enthusiastic as the prior run.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#280 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat May 30, 2020 2:29 am

TheStormExpert wrote:NADA on the 00z GFS run, but the 00z GEFS Ensembles are still somewhat enthusiastic. Meanwhile the 00z Euro briefly spins something weak up in eight days before moving into SE Texas, still waiting on the 00z Euro Ensembles to see if they’re still as enthusiastic as the prior run.

On both the CMC and GFS ensembles there is an uptick in activity compared to last run.
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