2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 878
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#281 Postby N2FSU » Sat May 30, 2020 6:55 am

6z GFS ensembles Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 878
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#282 Postby N2FSU » Sat May 30, 2020 6:55 am

0z Euro ensembles Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   

kevin
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 62
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#283 Postby kevin » Sat May 30, 2020 10:01 am

Of course still far away into the fantasy region (216 hours), but here's a slightly more in depth look in the current 0z euro control run. First image is the standard Tropical Tidbits overview, second image also shows 3h gust velocities in km/h. So this euro run has a landfall at roughly 117 km/h gusts.

Image

Image
2 likes   

Ubuntwo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#284 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat May 30, 2020 11:39 am

Hmmm... 12z GFS is back on time with development, but intensity is more in line with other models this time around. Just a weak tropical storm.
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2028
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#285 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat May 30, 2020 12:03 pm

CMC tropical storm upper Texas coast
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 693
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#286 Postby wxman22 » Sat May 30, 2020 12:22 pm

Yeah the EURO and CMC are becoming consistent with a tropical storm forming next week and affecting the northwestern Gulf.This will have to be watched as monsoonal/gyre origin tropical storms can have a tremendous amount of moisture to work with.
2 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2028
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#287 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat May 30, 2020 10:52 pm

0 likes   

Ubuntwo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#288 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun May 31, 2020 12:34 am

Since apparently everyone's distracted by the Gulf....

There is a moderate signal for subtropical cyclogenesis about 8 days out, far off the North Carolina coast.
It's on quite a few models including the ICON, Euro, and CMC, all around the same timeframe.
Looks like a trough drops down into the southwest Atlantic and vorticity bundles at its end.

Image
Euro
Image
CMC
Image
ICON
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3311
Age: 59
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#289 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:41 am

Batter Up! Next on the fantasy long range comes in about 306 hr.'s. This long range threat brought to you by - 2020 CAG "The Gyre that keep's on Giving" :cheesy:
GFS showing another spin-off low developing in the N.W. Caribbean. This for 3 consecutive model runs at this point. Will have to see if the GFS continues to rein in the time-frame on this or whether any focus on development is further west (or on the E. PAC side).
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2056
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#290 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:26 am

chaser1 wrote:Batter Up! Next on the fantasy long range comes in about 306 hr.'s. This long range threat brought to you by - 2020 CAG "The Gyre that keep's on Giving" :cheesy:
GFS showing another spin-off low developing in the N.W. Caribbean. This for 3 consecutive model runs at this point. Will have to see if the GFS continues to rein in the time-frame on this or whether any focus on development is further west (or on the E. PAC side).


Yeah I’m already looking forward to the next one. I could see at least 2 more systems happening in June.
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1145
Age: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#291 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:07 pm

I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE :roll:

Image
7 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 710
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#292 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/ePdXS7h_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1268225774588321793


0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 955
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#293 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:36 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I know it's just a few EPS members showing this, but it's EARLY JUNE :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/ePdXS7h_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

If that were to come true, it would be very similar to Bret ‘17 in terms of intensity, track, and timing. Certainly not completely ludicrous.
3 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 710
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#294 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:37 pm

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3311
Age: 59
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#295 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:42 pm



Kidding of course but looking at that map, I'd put my money on Western Kentucky for cyclogenesis :lol:
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
aspen
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 955
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#296 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:29 pm

Both the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro show a potential STC developing in the middle of the NW Atlantic on Wednesday. I think we might have Dolly on the horizon...

EDIT: the CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON also show signs of development on Tuesday/Wednesday.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#297 Postby plasticup » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:33 am

Euro, GFS, CMC, and Navy all show a STS by Bermuda on June 9-10. Excellent agreement but a very weak, short-lived system.
1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 955
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#298 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:41 pm

The Euro is more aggressive with “future Dolly” in its 12z run, and so far is the most aggressive out of the global models, even though the GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON do show at least something. However, it also had a much harder time trying to tighten up Cristobal before landfall on Sunday.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
cainjamin
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:38 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#299 Postby cainjamin » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:55 pm

Long range GFS is showing a tropical system developing from the merger of a tropical wave and decaying front near Bermuda in about 200 hours. Likely a phantom storm, but the waves that it forecasts coming off Africa are very impressive for this time of year.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11472
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#300 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:31 pm

Recent Euro runs have been hinting @ some potential BOC mischief:
Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], cycloneye, TheAustinMan, weathaguyry and 39 guests