2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Ryxn
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3761 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:37 am

The 00z GFS is absolutely bonkers and likely in fantasy land for number of sub-1001 mb storms forming. It shows a messy CAG for the first half of November.

Here's what I got from it.

1. Hurricane Eta (Nov 2) CAT 1 landfall Nicaragua
2. (Sub)tropical Storm Theta (Nov 6) quick formation and landfall in Southwestern Spain a la Vince 2005
3. Tropical Storm Iota (Nov 7) forms in the Central Caribbean from the CAG shortly after Eta. Heads northeast toward DR where it interests with a low over Lesser Antilles
4. (Sub)tropical Storm Kappa (Nov 9) forms in Central Atlantic
5. Tropical Storm Lambda (Nov 12) forms in northwestern Caribbean from the CAG
6. (Sub)tropical Storm Mu (Nov 14) forms after breaking away from Iota after separating from Iota and heads east and does a Fujiwhara dance with decaying Kappa.

Obviously this is extremely unlikely to occur. The whole Eta then another storm from the CAG is very possible however I do not think there will be 3 (sub)tropical storms in the Eastern and Central Atlantic within 8 days and ANOTHER CAG system develop 5 days after the previous Caribbean storm which isn't even Eta but instead the storm that formed after...not looking probable.

Crazy stuff for the first 2 weeks of November. SIX storms in 15 days would be absolutely absurd even if it occurred in September. It would push the 2020 storm count to 33, 12, 4 which would be in itself a very odd ratio.

The Eastern Pacific also has TS/Hurricane Odalys form November 3 and Hurricane Polo on November 9 which sticks around for 5 days.
Last edited by Ryxn on Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3762 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:51 am

The Euro run from a few days ago has Eta on November 2, a possible subtropical storm Theta around November 5 near southwestern Spain and maybe Iota and Kappa in the Atlantic around November 8 but likely just Iota.

The CMC has Eta on October 31 which dives into Honduras on November 4 a la Mitch. It also develops a freak subtropical storm Theta on November 7 just west of Portugal and a possible (sub)tropical Iota a day later in the Central Atlantic.

The NAVGEM has Eta on November 3 and a possible subtropical storm Theta on November 5 again just east of Portugal.

From these model runs, it's clear early November will be quite active. I believe 2 or 3 storms is in the cards.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3763 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:48 am

I think 2 or 3 storms in November. Considering this season exceeds pretty much all my expectations so far, I'll go with 3.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3764 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:23 am

GFS-Para has a weird solution for Hurricane Theta: a weak TS taking a Lenny-like track between the DR and Puerto Rico, stalling for a bit once it’s north of the islands, then turning towards the Bahamas and bombing out into a Cat 4. Oh, and it also has Cat 1 Hurricane Iota in the Gulf.

I will eat my hat if we have a major north of the Greater Antilles this November.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3765 Postby Jr0d » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:54 am

The latest GFS-Para run is absolutely insane. It's not going to verify, but the signs are there that we may see multiple storms in the 1st half of November.

Not much surprises me this year, in fact I fully expect a Christmas hurricane to finish off 2020 based on how this year has been.
Last edited by Jr0d on Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3766 Postby Blinhart » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:55 am

I just hope the Northern Gulf Coast is closed until next year.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3767 Postby tomatkins » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:36 pm

Jr0d wrote:The latest GFS-Para run is absolutely insane. It's not going to verify, but the signs are there thatbwe may say multiple storms in the 1st half of November.

Not much surprises me this year, in fact I fully expect a Christmas hurricane to finish off 2020 based on how this year has been.

The Para seems to love to split energy and spin up two storms (or more.) But that really never happens.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3768 Postby MetroMike » Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:13 pm

Blinhart wrote:I just hope the Northern Gulf Coast is closed until next year.


Closed next season also, Like Florida was this year.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3769 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:39 pm

Euro is sniffing out multiple storms in the Caribbean after Eta too.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3770 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:15 pm

Just a very cute medicane from the GFS in the long range... :D

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3771 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:39 pm

GFS says "It ain't over yet...., Eta 2.0"
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3772 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:22 pm

Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3773 Postby Ryxn » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:33 pm

LarryWx wrote:Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lOZyRqh.png


I. Knew. It. My 4/3/2 for November might actually pan out.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3774 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lOZyRqh.png

Ugh. At this rate we might get Christmas Canes...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3775 Postby NorthieStangl » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:45 pm

Hurricane freaks: what the f*ck is this season doing?
November: Oh ho ho ho, You wait and see what I have in store for y'all. :lol:
December: Don't forget about me! :P
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3776 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lOZyRqh.png

The GFS-Para has the source of this system in the Caribbean as early as 180-200 hours out, so it’s not impossible.

If this becomes another Delta/Eta, would 2020 be the first season to have more than one November major?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3777 Postby Ryxn » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:17 pm

aspen wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lOZyRqh.png

The GFS-Para has the source of this system in the Caribbean as early as 180-200 hours out, so it’s not impossible.

If this becomes another Delta/Eta, would 2020 be the first season to have more than one November major?


Yup!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3778 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:39 am

aspen wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Folks,
It may not be over anytime soon per 12Z GEFS and this isn't the end of the run! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/lOZyRqh.png

The GFS-Para has the source of this system in the Caribbean as early as 180-200 hours out, so it’s not impossible.

If this becomes another Delta/Eta, would 2020 be the first season to have more than one November major?


Now we just need to see if it drops development completely soon. Then it will be guaranteed to form the way models have been in 2020.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3779 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:25 am

12z ICON is on board now. It shows a forming TD/TS in the Caribbean south of Hispaniola at the end of its run.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3780 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:23 pm

aspen wrote:12z ICON is on board now. It shows a forming TD/TS in the Caribbean south of Hispaniola at the end of its run.

Nothing on the GEFS, albeit it's still running but ICON shows this developing at 180 hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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