2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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aspen
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3781 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:23 pm

12z GFS has a November Greek Parade for the next two weeks. After Eta, it develops three new storms:
-Theta in the subtropical Atlantic within the next 4-7 days (has appeared on multiple other runs)
-Iota near the Lesser Antilles from a tropical wave next week
-Kappa in the Caribbean potentially starting as early as late next week (this is the Caribbean system the ensembles, GFS-Para, and ICON are showing)
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3782 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:24 pm

Long Range GFS... Like a bad top 40 radio station. The hits just keep on coming!!!

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3783 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:30 pm

The 12z ICON really likes Theta, and it develops the Caribbean system quicker (which will get the name Iota because the LA/MDR system doesn't form).
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3784 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:50 pm

This 500mb steering pattern is something you’d expect to see in August or September not November with a strong Bermuda High parked just NE of Bermuda steering anything west and west-northwest towards the U.S., Caribbean, and Central America.
:double:

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1324395865520427009




 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1324398793677279232


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3785 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:20 pm

12z ECMWF has a broad area of low pressure over the SW Caribbean at the end of the run. Considering the ECMWF model has been very poor with predicting genesis outside the very short range, and the GFS/GEFS/ICON/CMC are already picking up on something, it may be yet another Caribbean system to watch. Here we go again...
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3786 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:25 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:12z ECMWF has a broad area of low pressure over the SW Caribbean at the end of the run. Considering the ECMWF model has been very poor with predicting genesis outside the very short range, and the GFS/GEFS/ICON/CMC are already picking up on something, it may be yet another Caribbean system to watch. Here we go again...

This is following the same model trends as Gamma, Delta, Zeta, and Eta. All we need is the models to suddenly drop it in the medium-range before picking it back up again after 2-4 days.

I believe this system, which I’ll call “Future Iota” (since a subtropical system will likely become Theta), is also going to be AEW-based like Delta and Eta.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3787 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:22 am

The GFS-Para and CMC start developing future Iota in the central Caribbean as early as the second half of next week. Meanwhile, the GFS is getting this strung out and intertwined with a system forming to the NE of the Antilles, and the Euro is still showing a broad low in the SWCar in 8-10 days.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3788 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:52 am

Today’s 12z GFS still has several more storms in the next 10 days: Theta in the subtropical eastern Atlantic (as well as another TD), Iota NE of the Antilles, and Kappa in the western Caribbean.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3789 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:00 pm

12Z King: check out the SW Caribbean!

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3790 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:05 pm

12Z EPS: still pretty active, especially for the EPS!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3791 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:10 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: still pretty active, especially for the EPS!
https://i.imgur.com/pjSp8zv.png

Please, no more. I'm done with 2020.


I just want my Turkey and Christmas gifts.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3792 Postby LarryWx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:18 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: still pretty active, especially for the EPS!
https://i.imgur.com/pjSp8zv.png

Please, no more. I'm done with 2020.


I just want my Turkey and Christmas gifts.


I don't believe you. :lol: :lol:
Hurricane lovers would have them all year round if they had their wayl Why would they ever want them to stop? Of course, I may be wrong to assume you love tracking these things, but most active posters here obviously do or they wouldn't be actively posting.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3793 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:24 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: still pretty active, especially for the EPS!
https://i.imgur.com/pjSp8zv.png

Please, no more. I'm done with 2020.


I just want my Turkey and Christmas gifts.


I don't believe you. :lol: :lol:
Hurricane lovers would have them all year round if they had their wayl Why would they ever want them to stop? Of course, I may be wrong to assume you love tracking these things, but most active posters here obviously do or they wouldn't be actively posting.

Oh trust me I love tracking hurricanes.

But I also want to spend my New Year’s eve with a Champagne bottle and not trying to have my eyes glued to the GFS and Euro with impeding Hurricane Mu on my doorstep. :lol:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3794 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:27 pm

I know this is fantasy land but what?!? :eek:

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3795 Postby St0rmTh0r » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:I know this is fantasy land but what?!? :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/NFgszRZH/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh300-384.gif

Is there any precedent for this kind of activity and pattern in November? I know its a la nina pattern but its unusually favorable in the Caribbean. This looks like the 3rd peak of season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3796 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm

Andrew in November? :lol:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3797 Postby St0rmTh0r » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:I know this is fantasy land but what?!? :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/NFgszRZH/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh300-384.gif

Is there any precedent for this kind of activity and pattern in November? I know its a la nina pattern but its unusually favorable in the Caribbean. This looks like the 3rd peak of season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3798 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:29 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Andrew in November? :lol:

I mean, we just had a T#8.5 Felix-Mitch crossover in November...anything is possible I guess.

Now that development is coming in closer, all of the models show something in the WCar. The GFS, GFS-Para, CMC, and ICON all show a TC, while the Euro and NAVGEM show the precursor. I think this one will also have a chance to explode because the Caribbean, especially the NWCar, is STILL a powder keg of hurricane fuel even this late in the year. The NWCar has warm enough SSTs and OHC to support a sub-900 mbar Category 5. All it takes is a Delta-like track, and a moist/low shear environment, and the 2020 drive will kick right in.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3799 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:I know this is fantasy land but what?!? :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/NFgszRZH/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh300-384.gif

Fortunately this steering pattern never showed up in September as some feared it would.

Probably going to be a very warm winter overall here in Florida if this keeps up too long.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3800 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:23 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I know this is fantasy land but what?!? :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/NFgszRZH/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh300-384.gif

Is there any precedent for this kind of activity and pattern in November? I know its a la nina pattern but its unusually favorable in the Caribbean. This looks like the 3rd peak of season.

1932 had a Cat 5 in the Caribbean and a Cat 2 that originated in the MDR, both in November so I guess anything's possible lol
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