2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1379
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Sweeny Texas Brazoria County

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3801 Postby underthwx » Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:42 pm

aspen wrote:12z GFS has a November Greek Parade for the next two weeks. After Eta, it develops three new storms:
-Theta in the subtropical Atlantic within the next 4-7 days (has appeared on multiple other runs)
-Iota near the Lesser Antilles from a tropical wave next week
-Kappa in the Caribbean potentially starting as early as late next week (this is the Caribbean system the ensembles, GFS-Para, and ICON are showing)
https://i.imgur.com/FpajPHl.png
https://i.imgur.com/W0JlHxQ.png
https://i.imgur.com/9N4a6nI.png
https://i.imgur.com/wrIiURP.png
https://i.imgur.com/UudwVfB.png


You did your homework on this...good post
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3802 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:01 pm

The Euro now shows the same Theta, Iota, and Kappa as the GFS has: Theta from the 0/20 AOI, Iota north of the Antilles from what seems to be an AEW, and Kappa in the Caribbean. Like the GFS, it’s showing some connection between Iota and Kappa that keeps the latter weak, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both models are overdoing the setup.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3803 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:33 pm

00Z UKMET now picking up on the potential next Caribbean system:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.8N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 144 15.8N 72.0W 1005 34
0 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 658
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3804 Postby MetroMike » Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:05 am

Also to mention is the 0z CMC with a TC coming up north to Cuba around the 17th of Nov.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3805 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:44 am

12z GFS is MUCH stronger with the next two systems than in previous runs. Theta becomes a moderate to strong TS, and Iota bombs out into a Category 4 in the medium-long range.
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cainjamin
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:38 pm
Location: Nova Scotia, Canada

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3806 Postby cainjamin » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:47 am

aspen wrote:12z GFS is MUCH stronger with the next two systems than in previous runs. Theta becomes a moderate to strong TS, and Iota bombs out into a Category 4 in the medium-long range.


The 12Z GFS today has the potential Caribbean system not getting as tangled up with the tropical wave north of the Antilles, which looks to allow it to consolidate more. Eventually brings what looks to be a Category 4 into Belize.
0 likes   
Noel '07, Kyle '08, Earl '10, Arthur '14, Dorian '19, Teddy '20

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3807 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:14 pm

18z GFS has STS Theta heading towards the Iberian Peninsula, then TS Iota forming in the Caribbean as early as 96 hours out, then another system apparently starting to form north of the Greater Antilles.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3808 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:18 pm

*looks at the long-range Caribbean hurricane in the long range GFS*

No. No more, 2020.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 352
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3809 Postby mitchell » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:26 pm

Systems really pounding Centro this month. Next 10 days just about every corner of the region may get 10-20 inches of rain!

Image
0 likes   

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3810 Postby tomatkins » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:51 am

mitchell wrote:Systems really pounding Centro this month. Next 10 days just about every corner of the region may get 10-20 inches of rain!

https://i1.wp.com/www.mostoke.com/wp-content/uploads/hm_bbpui/75190/8mfxe5e26tfr6zzu53ozaul47o54e7i5.gif?w=730&ssl=1

Long range, the GFS-Para wants to take Iota on an Eta like wandering path into the Gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3811 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:48 am

12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.
5 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4177
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3812 Postby LarryWx » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:05 pm

aspen wrote:12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.


18Z GEFS: this is for LATE Nov, folks!! :eek:

Image
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1379
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Sweeny Texas Brazoria County

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3813 Postby underthwx » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:07 pm

LarryWx wrote:
aspen wrote:12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.


18Z GEFS: this is for LATE Nov, folks!! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/tqFNgaY.png

Wow.... Hope that doesn't pan out..
2 likes   

Fancy1001
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3814 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:00 pm

Icon has 98l stalled in place for a couple days starting Tuesday morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6605
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3815 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:15 am

More coming!

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3816 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:13 pm

Hi Kappa.
Image
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

NorthieStangl
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:22 am

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3817 Postby NorthieStangl » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:19 pm

This is crazy. Having more than 3 tropical cyclones develop in November (Eta was named on the 1st) is unprecedented.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3818 Postby Steve » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:17 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:This is crazy. Having more than 3 tropical cyclones develop in November (Eta was named on the 1st) is unprecedented.


The whole season is pretty unprecedented. I realize that historically we only have a small amount of data relative to the Gulf being +/-300,000,000 years old. But in observed and recorded weather history, 2020 is something. MJO looks to go 8-1 and then drop into and stay in Phase 2 for a few days. However VP anomalies will become less favorable over the next two weeks. It’s kind of late in most seasons for a burst, but like we were saying, it’s a nuts year.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3819 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:12 am

GFS has Kappa developing in the SWCar in just six days...
No stop it, no more.
Image
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3758
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3820 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:22 am

Essentially an Otto 2.0 on the 12z GFS. Development appears to start as early as 120 hours out, so other models should start picking up on it, if it's legit.
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Nawtamet and 22 guests