2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3841 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:55 pm

Can we not.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3842 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:34 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can we not.

https://i.imgur.com/ccXDVtf.png

It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3843 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:46 pm

18z GFS again shows development. Not sure if it’s believable.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3844 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:22 pm

aspen wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can we not.

https://i.imgur.com/ccXDVtf.png

It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.


18z GFS ensembles.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3845 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:51 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
aspen wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can we not.

https://i.imgur.com/ccXDVtf.png

It starts developing as early as 3-4 days out, but it’s in a spot notorious for phantoms. I’d wait another day or so to see if it sticks around or vanishes like the last SC Caribbean AOI.


18z GFS ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/44VrKhk.png


Strong enough signal I'd at least put a 10% on that area.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3846 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:52 pm

tomatkins wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
kevin wrote:Quite a bit of CA activity in the 100 - 160 hour range, especially for an ensemble this late in the season. Looks like the disturbance that some of the models showed around Panama a few days ago has kept moving closer regarding the time frame and has shifted a bit further north. A few members strengthen to 970s/980s mbar before landfall, even though I think most members are at TD/TD level. Might become an AOI on the NHC page if it stays in the ensembles for another 1 - 2 days.

https://imgur.com/L2TnQZc


And with the ensembles, now come the 12Z GFS becoming quite bullish on one more hurricane to add to this crazy season! This begins with a 1003mb low just north of Panama in 108 hours, and climaxing to a 984mb hurricane drifting westward and making landfall in S. Nicaragua at 168 hours. Wow, seems like Nicaragua is becoming the Louisiana of Central America :cry:

Edit: No other meaningful model support to back the GFS with exception to the GFS-Para which comes in weaker/slower. Will have to watch and see if model support gains or if the GFS ultimately drops this feature.


The GFS seems to like to spin up the vorticity coming off of the Maracaibo region into real storms.



A December hurricane from tropical origins...only in 2020.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3847 Postby kevin » Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:25 am

Very strong 00z GFS ensemble signal for something to form in the SWCar around 90 - 100 hours with land impacts around 140 - 160 hours in Nicaragua/Costa Rica. I expect NHC to designate it an AOI either today or tomorrow if it stays in the GFS ensembles. 06z ICON also shows a 1009 mbar low at 120 hours, but the other models don't seem to be on board yet.

Last edited by kevin on Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3848 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:57 pm

I personally think that NHC will take a passive "sit-back-and-see" attitude toward potential development in the SW Caribbean for at least a couple days due to lack of convection and limited model consistency. GFS model run after run has come in weaker and the 12Z run seems to push back the goal-posts at tad. Ironically, the GFS-Para is now more bullish on development but is pushed back significantly with a 1002mb low occurring in about 132 hr's. and peaking at 992mb in about 168 hr's. While ensemble members are admittedly increasingly signaling development, there's still no significant model support elsewhere. Only thing i'd add is that the CMC does hint at some increased 850mb cyclonic turning but is broad and a bit more south. I'd give the edge to the GFS for sniffing something out and I think a moderate TS is not unreasonable at the 126/156 hr range given it's past performance late this season. A sliver of the warmest SST's in the basin (29C) still exist just north of Panama so there's one factor in support of potential genesis given the far south latitude that development would potentially occur. On the other hand, Father-Time will probably get the upper-hand if we see the GFS push back genesis much beyond 180 hr's.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3849 Postby CourierPR » Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:39 am

What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3850 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:54 pm

CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?


It needs to be highlighted IMO.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3851 Postby tomatkins » Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:44 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?


It needs to be highlighted IMO.

Looks like these three AOIs will be it for the season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3852 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:23 pm

tomatkins wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:What is that I see forming in the SW Caribbean today?


It needs to be highlighted IMO.

Looks like these three AOIs will be it for the season.


Most likely yes.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3853 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:01 am

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3854 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:39 am


Ohh that will be nice for severe weather season here in Oklahoma :D
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3855 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:52 pm

I'm seeing something semi-interesting on the long range Euro next week...a low north of the Caribbean that may try to develop in the 144-192 range before it merges with what should be a very intense ET low.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3856 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm seeing something semi-interesting on the long range Euro next week...a low north of the Caribbean that may try to develop in the 144-192 range before it merges with what should be a very intense ET low.


Hard pass.

Please.

Uncle.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3857 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:26 am

Thank god it's all but over.....What a year 2020 has been!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3858 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:27 pm

I'm seeing something interesting pop up on the GFS and ECMWF late this week between the Canaries and Cabo Verde lasting from December 24-26. While I don't see it having enough time to become (sub)tropical, it might be a fitting end to 2020.
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