2020 CPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Folks @ Wunderground have been tracking this and with the EPAC/CPAC season in-limbo this could be the "nicest" disturbance we'll see all year in the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Folks @ Wunderground have been tracking this and with the EPAC/CPAC season in-limbo this could be the "nicest" disturbance we'll see all year in the CPAC.

So you expect with luck only one or two?

[Kingarabian]

Folks @ Wunderground have been tracking this and with the EPAC/CPAC season in-limbo this could be the "nicest" disturbance we'll see all year in the CPAC.

So you expect with luck only one or two?

Not sure yet but it's certainly plausible. If we go into cool-neutral it will be a struggle to get systems to form.The CPAC is always tricky. Even in a favorable background state it can struggles to develop or maintain systems due to the dominant TUTT north of Hawaii.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing is looking certain right now is that Hawaii will likely see a much less threat from tropical cyclones with there currently being a good bit of cooler than normal SST’s centered east of the island chain. I’d be very surprised to see anything close to what we saw with Iselle in 2014 and Lane in 2018.

[cycloneye]

NOAA released the outlook for this basin and calls for near or below normal season between 2 and 6 named storms.

Excerpt:

“This year we will likely see less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to more active seasons,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Less activity is predicted since ocean temperatures are likely to be near-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean where hurricanes form, and because El Nino is not present to increase the activity.”

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/near ... al-pacific

[Extratropical94]

Something SSE of Hawaii. Not an invest yet, despite a 50% chance of developing.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure around 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have
increased overnight, but remain displaced from the low level
center. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development of this system, and a Tropical Depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally west-northwestward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Extratropical94]

Lol, just as I posted this, Invest 93C went up.

INVEST 93C thread