My 2020 hurricane season outlook

[Hurricaneman]

March 24 2020

The outlook shows what could be a blockbuster season and we will weigh the positive and negatives

Positives

The ENSO is going to at least be in the neutral to negative neutral category but the is a small chance of a La Niña which will at the very least lower the shear over the Atlantic basin as a whole

The Bermuda High/Azores High could be anchored closer to Bermuda which will be bad for landfalls aka more landfalls

The Atlantic Tripole looks to be positive which leads to more instability, lower pressure, and more lift in the MDR and Caribbean

Possible higher than normal anomalies in the MDR causing more lift and stronger waves moving across the Atlantic

Stronger than normal African monsoon which keeps the waves stronger coming off of Africa

Shear seems like it will be low across the basin due to negative neural ENSO and possible cooler than normal EPAC MDR


No negatives I can see as of now and that’s not good

So as I see it here are the numbers as I see them might seem a little high but this season looks scary on paper

23/12/7

Ace 200
Next update will be May 1 And am hoping some negatives pop up

[Shell Mound]

Respectfully, isn’t it wiser to wait until June (if not later) before issuing these outlooks, since so much can change for better or worse? Spring barrier, anyone?

At this point in 2018, people would have been forecasting a dead season, based largely on the very -AMO signature then. So things can deviate either way.

[FireRat]

Thanks for your prediction Hurricaneman.
It will be interesting to see how things play out this year! I can't agree with you more about this year.

You hopped on the train sensing a very bad 2020 season, and the timing of all this literally gives me chills. I don't usually go loco here in S2K regarding future speculation because I have a pretty off-beat way of looking at prospective storm years, but seriously feel the need to mention this stuff this year:
(I've been kicking around the idea of writing a thread about this, but am kinda shy):

The thing is that I look at the Chinese Year Cycle (Chinese Zodiac) to get hints on whether the coming year could be relatively quiet, average, or eventful.
The year 2020 falls within possibly the most ominous 12-year cycle, the Year of the Rat, and one which is called the Metal Rat which happens every 60 years. (they have 5 elements for each animal year, so 5 × 12 = cycle of 60).
Going back sixty years we get to 1960, the year of Hurricane Donna, sixty yrs further back we get 1900, the Galveston Hurricane year, and twice sixty (120 yrs back) we get to the infamous 1780 season. Only 1840 wasn't eventful, therefore according to this wizardry, 2020 is likely to be off the charts, especially in impact...with the theme probably being super high-impact hurricanes whether the total storm numbers are high or not. Both 1780 and 1900 are in the top 5 deadliest seasons on record in the Atlantic. Coincidence?

I think this is one more thing that adds credence to a potentially dangerous 2020 season, if things like this were to be seriously considered.

There are other examples of Chinese Astrology coincidences, it's not perfect but I do see some parallels...for example:
-The Pig Year cycle tends to have an August/September blockbuster, with the significant years in this cycle being 1899, 1935, 1947, 1995, 2007, 2019. In 2019, hurricane Dorian happened on the same dates that the 1935 hurricane did, and both storms were C5's near the Bahamas and South Florida.
-The Monkey Year Cycle tends to have bad landfalls, with the recent big years being 1932, 1944, 1980, 1992, 2004, 2016.
-The Rat Year Cycle has typically been a mixed bag of either busy seasons or high impact/ very deadly ones, with notable years being 1780, 1888, 1900, 1924, 1936, 1948, 1960, 1996, 2008.
-The Rooster Year Cycle is a busy one both numbers-wise and in impacts, that cycle includes the crazy years of 1933, 1969, 2005 and 2017.
-The Ox cycle tends to be a quieter one, with example years being 2009, 1997, 1973, 1937, 1925, 1913...Often slower than usual years with low impacts, maybe 2021 we finally get a break?

Of course, a word of caution, this stuff isn't perfect because for instance 1949, 1961 & 1985 Ox years were busy and 1993, 1981 Rooster years not so much. In a very general sense however, there seems to be at least some correlation between the Chinese Zodiac and our short bicentennial record of hurricane seasons.

In all seriousness though, I think there are 12-year cycles at play here and the animal signs only point them out easier. Scientifically speaking, there may be some kind of recurring weather patterns happening, to some degree, every 12 years for some reason.

2020 could be in a very risky spot. Possible analog years (impact-wise) to be considered for this year, in addition to existing ones, could be 1780, 1900 and 1960. Given the current active era we're in, 2020 will likely have a higher number of storms than either 1960 or 1900, and there could still be a blockbuster landfall. Your prediction might not be too far-fetched, especially regarding the ACE. Sorry if this post is long, but I felt the urge to mention this stuff. It is because of this that I've had my eye on 2020 for quite some time, and why I agree with your outlook. We might be in for a hell of a season.

-FireRat.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Isn't there a year of the Dragon? I think I was born under that sign.

[FireRat]

ScottNAtlanta, yes there sure is! The Dragon year cycle is 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928 and so on 12 yrs down.
Some of those years were quite big for Canes as well, but also about half of these yrs spared land.

[DioBrando]

ScottNAtlanta, yes there sure is! The Dragon year cycle is 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928 and so on 12 yrs down.
Some of those years were quite big for Canes as well, but also about half of these yrs spared land.

they all share the same naming lists too.....

[FireRat]

Haha that's right DioBrando, I didn't notice that! Interesting, it certainly adds a touch of mystery to the 'characters' of the names in the naming lists.
Imagine if certain named storms behave similar to their "same sign" versions 12 years apart... like 1996 Bertha and 2008 Bertha for instance.

[chaser1]

Okay, i'll add to the madness........ solar cycles are approx. 11.5 year cycles as well. We've been down trending in terms of sunspot activity throughout recent years however sunspot cycle 25 is expected to commence during the next month/months to come. Even though we'll likely witness far lower numbers of sunspots as compared to prior particularly active solar cycle events (or solar max periods within these cycles themselves) however there should be a significant uptick in the number of sunspots during the months to come as compared to recently witnessed on the sun during the past few years. Increased sunspot activity can have distinct impact to Earth's electrical fields, but there's minimal data to help correlate immediate or delayed impact to Earth's weather as a result of increased coronal ejections or solar flare activity that generally accompanies an increase in sunspot activity. 'Course...... Earth's entire electrical grid could be directly impacted by a potent enough coronal mass ejection aimed at Earth and we could all wind up without electricity for weeks or months, but i'm not sure what if any implications this will have on our climate or the formation of tropical cyclones.

Still, wouldn't that be the ultimate suck-fest LOL. "Bat" inspired Corona virus + "Rat" inspired Meso cyclone Mega-impact, all just prior to the lights all going out

[DioBrando]

Haha that's right DioBrando, I didn't notice that! Interesting, it certainly adds a touch of mystery to the 'characters' of the names in the naming lists.
Imagine if certain named storms behave similar to their "same sign" versions 12 years apart... like 1996 Bertha and 2008 Bertha for instance.

LORD, I was just thinking of that.... but again 2014's Edouard wasn't as loopy and happy as the 1996 version.... -_- that storm seemed like fun

[FireRat]

Chaser1, wow, that is quite interesting! It's interesting that the solar cycle is almost every 12 years, and the Chinese astrology is based on solar and lunar cycles too, hmmm, that helps explain things a little more. The Chinese came up with their Zodiac thousands of years ago, and still use it today for many things, their culture is ancient and has lots of wisdom...perhaps it even extends a little bit into Tropical Meteorology as well, lol.
Oh yeah, that would be utter pandemonium, first we're already getting our butts kicked by this coronavirus, and then if the Rat year decides to go 1780 on us, ayayay! Heaven forbid!
thanks for adding to the madness!

DioBrando, funny you thought of the same thing! You know, actually 2014 wasn't on the same cycle as 1996, but instead on the 2014 - 2002 - 1990 - 1978 - etc. cycle also known as Year of the Horse. Naming lists share two 'signs', since they repeat every 6 years... so who knows, maybe Edouard will be a completely different story this year, more like 1996?
I do have a feeling we will see at least one long track powerhouse like Ed '96 or Ike '08. gonna be an interesting year to follow, maybe we indeed get an unprecedented 5th year in a row of madness.

[DioBrando]

Chaser1, wow, that is quite interesting! It's interesting that the solar cycle is almost every 12 years, and the Chinese astrology is based on solar and lunar cycles too, hmmm, that helps explain things a little more. The Chinese came up with their Zodiac thousands of years ago, and still use it today for many things, their culture is ancient and has lots of wisdom...perhaps it even extends a little bit into Tropical Meteorology as well, lol.
Oh yeah, that would be utter pandemonium, first we're already getting our butts kicked by this coronavirus, and then if the Rat year decides to go 1780 on us, ayayay! Heaven forbid!
thanks for adding to the madness!

DioBrando, funny you thought of the same thing! You know, actually 2014 wasn't on the same cycle as 1996, but instead on the 2014 - 2002 - 1990 - 1978 - etc. cycle also known as Year of the Horse. Naming lists share two 'signs', since they repeat every 6 years... so who knows, maybe Edouard will be a completely different story this year, more like 1996?
I do have a feeling we will see at least one long track powerhouse like Ed '96 or Ike '08. gonna be an interesting year to follow, maybe we indeed get an unprecedented 5th year in a row of madness.

i've noticed horse seasons tend to be pretty inactive and weak!

[FireRat]

That seems to be the case DioBrando! In the Atlantic, those years have tended to be either slow or average, with just a few strong landfalls over 150 years of data. The only exception to this might be the "Fire Horse" year, which was 1966, 1906, and 1846. All three of those years had significant hurricane landfalls.

[DioBrando]

That seems to be the case DioBrando! In the Atlantic, those years have tended to be either slow or average, with just a few strong landfalls over 150 years of data. The only exception to this might be the "Fire Horse" year, which was 1966, 1906, and 1846. All three of those years had significant hurricane landfalls.

that's an awful long time ago!

[Shell Mound]

Hurricaneman,

I’ve noticed that you’ve significantly reduced your numbers elsewhere and are now forecasting 14 NS / 7 H / 2 MH for the 2020 Atlantic season.

Respectfully, I am interested in hearing your reasoning, meteorological or otherwise, behind such a drastic change vs. your forecast in this thread.

[Hurricaneman]

Hurricaneman,

I’ve noticed that you’ve significantly reduced your numbers elsewhere and are now forecasting 14 NS / 7 H / 2 MH for the 2020 Atlantic season.

Respectfully, I am interested in hearing your reasoning, meteorological or otherwise, behind such a drastic change vs. your forecast in this thread.

It was my outlook from December in the big ones thread, I updated it in this topic because things look like they’re setting up to be hyperactive this year, also I will be doing an update may 1 as I may adjust down on the numbers

[CyclonicFury]

Hurricaneman,

I’ve noticed that you’ve significantly reduced your numbers elsewhere and are now forecasting 14 NS / 7 H / 2 MH for the 2020 Atlantic season.

Respectfully, I am interested in hearing your reasoning, meteorological or otherwise, behind such a drastic change vs. your forecast in this thread.

I also noticed you lowered your numbers to 12-4-2 with only 100 ACE, which is more typical of an inactive era -ENSO season.

Considering the MDR is warmer than last year and the ENSO regions are likely to be cooler than the last two years (both of which were above average Atlantic seasons), what is your reasoning for doing such?

[Shell Mound]

Hurricaneman,

I’ve noticed that you’ve significantly reduced your numbers elsewhere and are now forecasting 14 NS / 7 H / 2 MH for the 2020 Atlantic season.

Respectfully, I am interested in hearing your reasoning, meteorological or otherwise, behind such a drastic change vs. your forecast in this thread.

I also noticed you lowered your numbers to 12-4-2 with only 100 ACE, which is more typical of an inactive era -ENSO season.

Considering the MDR is warmer than last year and the ENSO regions are likely to be cooler than the last two years (both of which were above average Atlantic seasons), what is your reasoning for doing such?

I was initially skeptical about the transition to La Niña, but in light of ongoing oceanic-atmospheric trends, I may significantly increase my numbers by late May.

[Hurricaneman]

May 15 2020

Here’s an update to the previous forecast from March

The MDR has cooled some from March anomalies but is still somewhat above normal and may not be as active as originally thought as most of the higher anomalies are in the 18 to 35n area and into the Caribbean so maybe a season that may have things wait until 50 to 60w similar to such big seasons like 2018, 2005 and the like as the anomalies aren’t to much different except for the central MDR

My thinking is more development either near Africa or just north and or east of the lesser Antilles and possibly the western Caribbean and GOM

My numbers are 20/12/7 as of now and will update this August 1st

[Shell Mound]

May 15 2020

Here’s an update to the previous forecast from March

The MDR has cooled some from March anomalies but is still somewhat above normal and may not be as active as originally thought as most of the higher anomalies are in the 18 to 35n area and into the Caribbean so maybe a season that may have things wait until 50 to 60w similar to such big seasons like 2018, 2005 and the like as the anomalies aren’t to much different except for the central MDR

My thinking is more development either near Africa or just north and or east of the lesser Antilles and possibly the western Caribbean and GOM

My numbers are 20/12/7 as of now and will update this August 1st

Actually, current SST anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean are similar to those in 2018 and much colder than in 2005 at this point.

Since you are expecting a lot of development in the subtropics, why are your numbers of hurricanes/majors so high? Curious.

[CyclonicFury]

May 15 2020

Here’s an update to the previous forecast from March

The MDR has cooled some from March anomalies but is still somewhat above normal and may not be as active as originally thought as most of the higher anomalies are in the 18 to 35n area and into the Caribbean so maybe a season that may have things wait until 50 to 60w similar to such big seasons like 2018, 2005 and the like as the anomalies aren’t to much different except for the central MDR

My thinking is more development either near Africa or just north and or east of the lesser Antilles and possibly the western Caribbean and GOM

My numbers are 20/12/7 as of now and will update this August 1st

Actually, current SST anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean are similar to those in 2018 and much colder than in 2005 at this point.

Since you are expecting a lot of development in the subtropics, why are your numbers of hurricanes/majors so high? Curious.

Not true. The MDR is mostly much warmer than 2018, and the Atlantic as a whole looks much more +AMO than May of that year.