CyclonicFury wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:May 15 2020
Here’s an update to the previous forecast from March
The MDR has cooled some from March anomalies but is still somewhat above normal and may not be as active as originally thought as most of the higher anomalies are in the 18 to 35n area and into the Caribbean so maybe a season that may have things wait until 50 to 60w similar to such big seasons like 2018, 2005 and the like as the anomalies aren’t to much different except for the central MDR
My thinking is more development either near Africa or just north and or east of the lesser Antilles and possibly the western Caribbean and GOM
My numbers are 20/12/7 as of now and will update this August 1st
Actually, current SST anomalies in the MDR/Caribbean are similar to those in 2018 and much colder than in 2005 at this point.
Since you are expecting a lot of development in the subtropics, why are your numbers of hurricanes/majors so high? Curious.
Not true. The MDR is mostly much warmer than 2018, and the Atlantic as a whole looks much more +AMO than May of that year.
https://i.imgur.com/H6yeLee_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium
On the other hand, current SST anomalies in the MDR are far colder than in 2005, 2017, and even 2016 (!) at this point, to not mention 1996 and 1999. Current anomalies are only comparable to last year’s. The fact that this year seems warmer than 2018 does not say much, since 2018 featured record-breaking negative anomalies in the MDR. So far, this year’s current SST configuration in the MDR/Caribbean is far more comparable to that of average or inactive seasons than active ones, much less hyperactive seasons. At this stage, I am willing to bet that every forecast of above-average or hyperactive activity is going to bust significantly, but we shall see.
