When do you think Arthur will form?

CyclonicFury · #1 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:30 pm

Going to go off on a limb and say June 14th. It's going to be interesting to see if the preseason streak reaches six years in a row or not.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:44 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Going to go off on a limb and say June 14th. It's going to be interesting to see if the preseason streak reaches six years in a row or not.

Made a poll from the question that will be open to vote until April 30 at 5:42 PM.

TheStormExpert · #3 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:57 pm

I’m going with May at some point. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some sort of disorganized Subtropical/Tropical pre-season mischief for the sixth year in a row.

aspen · #4 Postby **aspen** » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m going with May at some point. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some sort of disorganized Subtropical/Tropical pre-season mischief for the sixth year in a row.

I was thinking that too, but like you said, that would be the sixth season in a row with at least one pre-season storm. I’m not quite sure 2020 will be able to pull that off; maybe a late May disturbance will develop in the first few days of June.

Shell Mound · #5 Postby **Shell Mound** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:48 am

27 May in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Steve H. · #6 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:29 am

I'm thinking before memorial day weekend. Been really hot in Florida already and frontal boundaries have been hanging up over the peninsula. Some disturbance could form early. Then may get quiet for a while.

#7 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:10 am

Steve H. wrote:I'm thinking before memorial day weekend. Been really hot in Florida already and frontal boundaries have been hanging up over the peninsula. Some disturbance could form early. Then may get quiet for a while.

I agree with your reasoning Steve

A very warm winter (non-winter I should say), will yield to very warm ssts much earlier than usual close to home. I think we will see tropical cyclone development either in the GOM, probably the Eastern or NE GOM, or off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. I am going for Memotial Day or sometime around May 24 or the last week in May.

#8 Postby **chaser1** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:09 am

Ditto to those points made above. That and, do not underestimate NHC's capacity to find a short-lived swirl along a stalled front having sustained 35 kt. winds in the N.E. quad, just meters above the surface. May it is. Question is whether we'll see one or two.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:03 pm

I voted August and beyond. We don't need any storms over the next several months. ;-)

#10 Postby **AnnularCane** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:46 pm

I'm starting to expect these little preseason storms, so I will go with May.

(On the other hand, the streak has to be broken sometime, right?)

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:59 pm

CyclonicFury, I changed the date to end the poll from April 30th to the 20th as April is on the list of options to vote.

Kazmit · #12 Postby **Kazmit** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:39 pm

I'm gonna go with May - it has been the new normal in recent years.

CyclonicFury · #13 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:34 pm

Quite a lot of people voting May - I doubt we'll keep getting preseason activity every year though. There was actually a lot of December activity from 2001-2007, but no named storms since, so it's going to be interesting to see if this recent May activity continues or eventually slows down in the coming years.

FireRat · #14 Postby **FireRat** » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:19 pm

Hahaha I knew that had to be you 57! :lol:

I went with May, especially because of the crazy early season heat around Florida/ Cuba this month. I think we might see Arthur around May 25. Hopefully it's a storm that forms offshore and moves OTS. Things may continue on first gear through June and July, then probably go bananas after Aug. 25. that's my 2 cents amigos!

Hurricaneman · #15 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:21 am

wxman57 wrote:I voted August and beyond. We don't need any storms over the next several months.

Can only hope at this point, but everything’s setting up quite the contrary unfortunately, hoping for a 2013 repeat but am expecting almost a 2017 repeat

TheStormExpert · #16 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:47 am

wxman57 wrote:I voted August and beyond. We don't need any storms over the next several months.

For once I actually hope you’re right! :lol:

I could live without tracking any tropical mischief for at least the rest of the year! But unfortunately I know that won’t happen.

#17 Postby **gigabite** » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:07 am

The analog system that I am using suggest the middle latter half of July. The weather satellites placed after 2004 have manage to get the count up a little and then there is global warming, and that could an earlier arriva too.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:32 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Quite a lot of people voting May - I doubt we'll keep getting preseason activity every year though. There was actually a lot of December activity from 2001-2007, but no named storms since, so it's going to be interesting to see if this recent May activity continues or eventually slows down in the coming years.

Almost all the options have votes except July 21-31. 5 more days to vote as the poll closes on the 20th at 5:42 PM.

galaxy401 · #19 Postby **galaxy401** » Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:06 pm

May. More specifically, around May 21 and it will be a typical May subtropical storm that forms off the east coast.

GSBHurricane · #20 Postby **GSBHurricane** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:40 pm

Voted for July 21-31 because no one has voted for that one yet.