When do you think Arthur will form?

[Kingarabian]

I think towards the 3rd week or 4th week of May.

MJO is entering the IO, and will make it to the MC by May 02. I assume it will spend more time there due to the shifting ENSO phase specifically till the end of the first week of May, and quickly moving in and out of the Pacific by the 2nd week of May. That puts in the final two weeks of May in prime position.

[cycloneye]

For those who have not voted there is still time as the poll closes on Monday at 5:42 PM.

[cycloneye]

This poll has closed for voting but those who want to discuss about this question go ahead.

[Gums]

Salute!

Not voting, but all should consider a front blasting thru the SE, then stalling and then a low forming in the Gulf or near the Bahamas. Could be anytime from next week to Memorial Day.

I am looking back to the mid-80's, but we have recently had Alberto, Ana, Andrea et all before 1 June. Alberto went in about 60 miles east of us a coupla years ago, and was no big deal. Michael made up for it!!

This spring we have not seen the usual strong fronts coming down on a schedule thru the Panhandle. Most have created more trouble to the north of us like the one this past weekend.

Gums sends...

[tailgater]

May

[aspen]

A storm forming in the later half of May is becoming increasingly likely due to signs pointing towards a potentially active early season. The question is how strong could such a storm get. If one develops, it would most likely be in the well warmer-than-average Gulf or western Caribbean. Maybe, if everything works out for it, we could see a strong TS or a weak Cat 1 pop up between May 20th-30th.

[chaser1]

A storm forming in the later half of May is becoming increasingly likely due to signs pointing towards a potentially active early season. The question is how strong could such a storm get. If one develops, it would most likely be in the well warmer-than-average Gulf or western Caribbean. Maybe, if everything works out for it, we could see a strong TS or a weak Cat 1 pop up between May 20th-30th.

Agreed, however I'm seeing another scenario possibly play out. Possibly more then one sub-tropical feature that might develop. One in the more common climatological arena as mentioned above, but I could very easily see NHC tagging some N. Atlantic baroclinic low that might deepen and take on some very marginal tropical characteristics for a couple days. Mind you, this alone should not be particlularly indicative of an active season but is certainly a factor weighing into my own seasonal forecast and a bit of an additional hedge that might suggest (on paper anyway) a higher then average number of named storms when all is said and done. What i'd be more interested in is seeing the origin, date, and track of the first fully tropical tropical cyclone to form. I think this would be a better indicator of just how busy (and deadly) the upcoming season might just be.

[PavelGaborik]

May 27th

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.

80% now. Of course that’s 30 of the 50 participants that voted. Now onto Bertha assuming 90L becomes Arthur.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the users that voted May have at least a 50% chance to be right.

80% now. Of course that’s 30 of the 50 participants that voted. Now onto Bertha assuming 90L becomes Arthur.

We now have Arthur on May 16th, voters like me were correct in voting May. This is now the 6th year in a row with at least one pre-season named storm dating back to 2015.

[AnnularCane]

Another May voter. Do we get a prize?

[CyclonicFury]

I usually don't vote for May in these polls because I would think the preseason streak has to end eventually, but I keep getting proven wrong.

[chaser1]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Arthur will develop........ yesterday