When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced? First Tropical Wave introduced at 00z 5/17/20

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

Poll ended at Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:37 am

Last days of April
3
12%
May 1-10
12
46%
May 11-20
7
27%
May 21-31
3
12%
June 1-10
0
No votes
June 11-20
1
4%
June 21-31
0
No votes
July and beyond
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 26

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced? First Tropical Wave introduced at 00z 5/17/20

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:37 am

Good question about the first wave. The poll closes on April 30 at 10:37 AM.

I voted May 1-10.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:36 pm

Slow participation so far in this poll. There is still time to vote and that is until April 30th at 10:37 AM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:49 pm

For us here in T&T, the timing of the first wave is important because once it brushes us, it'll trigger the start of our wet season.

The last two years saw the wet season start in the final few days of May but hopefully this year it starts a little earlier. It would be interesting to see what makes the majority vote go towards May 1 - May 10.

If I'm not mistaken, quite a few countries in the eastern Caribbean (including T&T) have been experiencing below-average rainfall since the start of 2019, which has had negative consequences on the water reserves.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:36 am

Time is running out to vote as it closes at 10:37 AM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:57 pm

Poll has closed but any comments about this question can go ahead.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 10, 2020 10:35 am

Looks like the 1-10 option that 46% voted in the poll will not be the one.
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1651
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#7 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 10, 2020 10:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Looks like the 1-10 option that 46% voted in the poll will not be the one.


Put a lid on this season :ggreen:
1 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun May 10, 2020 11:15 am

I'm even wondering if May 11-20 might be in danger too lolol.
:ggreen:

Although I still think we should at least see something by then.


https://ttweathercenter.com/the-wet-season/

Judging by the start of our wet season down here in the southeastern Caribbean, which is usually triggered by the passage of that first wave over us about a week after it leaves Africa, it usually seems to be around the teens or very early twenties of May that the first wave leaves. Between 2014 and 2019, only 2017 featured a wave that passed over us before May 13th, which means it left Africa in the first week of May, but that doesn't seem to be the norm. 2016's wet season was triggered by an unusually early ITCZ so I counted that one out.
4 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 11, 2020 9:02 am

I think the first one will be up shortly. There are two candidates, one around 40W and the other ready to emerge the African Coast.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon May 11, 2020 9:12 am

Finally!!

It's been an extremely dry dry season with smoke everywhere and almost record-low rainfall totals. The earth would love some beneficial rainfall where I am.
:D
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2020 10:35 am

Well, I thought that big convective area that rolled from Africa was going to be the first one but we will have to wait a little bit longer.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed May 13, 2020 11:25 am

Lol yup, I noticed it went poof. :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat May 16, 2020 5:38 pm

Starting to wonder if even May 20 might be too early...
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2020 10:11 pm

Here it is.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1145
Age: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 16, 2020 10:12 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Starting to wonder if even May 20 might be too early...

Lol, here it is
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat May 16, 2020 10:18 pm

Wowwww, it heard me!! :lol: :lol:
2 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1764
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#17 Postby AnnularCane » Sat May 16, 2020 10:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here it is.

https://i.imgur.com/uuBy13t.jpg



I feel like I should know this, but anyway...what exactly makes it an official tropical wave?
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced?

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2020 10:43 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Here it is.

https://i.imgur.com/uuBy13t.jpg



I feel like I should know this, but anyway...what exactly makes it an official tropical wave?


The NHC tropical branch does these surface analysis every 6 hours. This first wave was introduced at 00z meaning it will be on the 2 AM discussion.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced? First Tropical Wave introduced at 00z 5/17/20

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2020 10:47 pm

Image
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2786
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: When will the first Tropical Wave be introduced? First Tropical Wave introduced at 00z 5/17/20

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat May 16, 2020 10:51 pm

It's actually kinda hard to tell if the western portion of those clouds is part of the ITCZ or is the wave itself.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kingarabian and 20 guests