Oddball 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook Using the Chinese Zodiac (12 year / 60 year cycle)

[FireRat]

FireRat, do you still think a FL-Gulf “crossover” in September (à la track #2) remains plausible—i.e., a track from Miami/Upper Keys over to the GoM?

Hi Shellmound, I still think the South FL/GOM 'crossover' is very plausible! The Track #2 from my Fig 3 is also more likely this September vs Aug IMO.

Track 2 is actually a blend of the paths of two very significant hurricanes from the past two Metal Rat years of 1900 and 1960 these are the storms:
-1900 Galveston Hurricane
-1960 Hurricane Donna

Track 2 assumes a Donna-like (or Irma-like for recent comparison) path up until it gets to the South FL/Keys/Cuba vicinity. Once it gets there, it then takes on the 1900 Galveston track (or even 2008 Ike-like track) thereafter. This would probably also be the worst case scenario path for an intense hurricane out of my other potential tracks illustrated.

Chances are however, that if an already powerful hurricane crosses FL or Cuba into the GOM without significant weakening, the hurricane wouldn't make it all the way west to Texas but instead would curve towards the northern Gulf coast instead (unless there's a crazy ridge in place then).

[Shell Mound]

Based on current trends, I’m thinking that my range of possibilities may need to adjusted somewhat.

For instance, given the pace of activity, Gonzalo is perhaps less likely to be the “big one” I outlined previously.

Additionally, it’s becoming more plausible that the long-tracking CV major I mentioned—traveling from the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico to South Florida and thence to (Southeast) Texas—may actually need to be split into two separate “big ones.”

I think it is more likely that South Florida and Texas may each be impacted separately by two powerful hurricanes: the former by a long-tracking, Cat-4+, CV-type major that passes through the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the southern Bahamas before striking the Miami area and thence heading into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico; the latter by a system that forms near Jamaica/the Cayman Islands, crosses the Yucatán Peninsula—quite possibly already as a major hurricane by then—and then rapidly recovers once over the southwestern GoM as it heads toward and strikes just north of the U.S.–Mexico border, most likely between Port Isabel and Corpus Christi, probably around South Padre Island, not too distant from the Brownsville–Matamoros, MX, area. The latter system could quite possibly peak and make landfall as a Cat-4+ as well.

The FL impact could be best described as a blend of the 1926 Miami hurricane, Georges (1998), and Irma (2017) in terms of trajectory, size, intensity, and impact; the TX cyclone could be characterised as a blend of Racer’s Storm (1837), the 1875 Indianola hurricane, and Harvey (2017).

In other words, the main targets in 2020 may be:

a) the northeastern Caribbean, especially on a line extending from Guadeloupe through St. Croix, northeastern Puerto Rico (especially San Juan), and perhaps the USVI;
b) Southeast Florida, especially from the upper Keys to the Miami-Dade/Broward county line;
c) the northeastern Gulf Coast, primarily between Pensacola, FL, and Pascagoula, MS, as well as in the Tampa Bay area;
d) Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatán Peninsula, and the western two-thirds of Cuba;
e) the northeastern mainland of Mexico and South Texas, primarily between Matamoros/Brownsville and South Padre Island.

Items in red are highlighted as areas that are at greatest risk, in my view, of one or more Cat-5 landfalls in 2020. Unfortunately, I am going to add extra emphasis to delimit zones that are at risk of a “high-end” Cat-5, defined here as being ≥ 155 knots. I am going out on a limb and am willing to suggest that there may be three separate, high-end Cat-5 cyclones that deliver accordingly to the zones highlighted in bold red: 1) the CV long-tracker from Guadeloupe → St. Croix → San Juan, PR → Miami, FL → NE GoM → between the FL/AL and MS/AL state lines, respectively; 2) the “homegrown” system from the western Caribbean Sea → Yucatán → Rio Grande valley (U.S./Mexico border); and 3) a Wilma- and/or Patricia-type record-breaker in October, also spawned in the western Caribbean, that tracks from the Cayman Islands → western tip of Pinar del Río Province, Cuba → Tampa Bay area → Orlando → OTS.

[FireRat]

Thanks for your input and thoughts Shellmound,
I have to say this is basically in line with what I'm thinking could be the Worst Case scenario for 2020, having more than one highly intense hurricane striking different parts of the Atlantic basin, especially in the Islands, Florida and the Gulf Coast including Texas.

Those are some hefty years you mentioned above, a 1926-like strike to South FL would alone put this season ahead of 2005 and 2017 for costly destruction! From your analog storm mixes, it does also, more-or-less, seem to predict BOTH a 1960 Donna and a 1900 Galveston type event happening this season with different exact origins and landfall points, and considering it's 2020 and how it's expected to be much busier than 1960 or 1900 were, this makes this not impossible to occur... and heaven forbid this actually being the case.

I'll say it again, 1780 (another Metal Rat year), could be such an analog as this worst case scenario you went out on a limb with...
That year had a major hurricane going from the Caribbean into the Gulf en route to strike Louisiana as an estimated Cat 4+, 1780 also had the Great Hurricane devastating the Lesser Antilles from the east, had another nasty major hitting Jamaica and then went north into Cuba, and the season also had yet another October hurricane (likely major) hit westernmost Cuba and go north into the GOM before likely curving east over parts of FL that would later become the Tampa area and heading OTS from there.

This tells us that October could be a month to watch out for and not let our guard down even if August/September fail to deliver for some reason. In 1780, the historic trifecta came in October! Caught many off guard then.

Of course, there still is a chance that we all could be wrong and this season busts and turns out like the only metal rat year of no consequence in the last 250 years (1840)... but the odds right now certainly don't indicate this.

So yeah, Gonzalo might just come too early to be the biggie. I know for sure I missed the mark with Edouard, lol.
'Big Name predictions' are truly crapshoots, but hey who knows?... Maybe Isaias, Laura or Marco take the cake instead?
Looks like we're set up for another I-curse and M-monster type of season like 2017!

[Chris90]

I'm guessing Kyle will be the first Cat 5 this season.

I also think it might be the first major overall. We're ahead of 2005 currently in naming, and the Cat 5s that year were E-K-R-W. Activity that year gave the advantage to those names farther down the list, and we're currently headed the same way, and I think that momentum is going to keep up.
I just hope we avoid Teddy being a major. I feel like it would be really hard for people to take a Cat 5 Teddy seriously, although if it made landfall at that intensity I suppose people who went through the eyewall could claim they experienced "5 cats at Teddy's." Hopefully that reference makes sense.

[FireRat]

I'm guessing Kyle will be the first Cat 5 this season.

I also think it might be the first major overall. We're ahead of 2005 currently in naming, and the Cat 5s that year were E-K-R-W. Activity that year gave the advantage to those names farther down the list, and we're currently headed the same way, and I think that momentum is going to keep up.
I just hope we avoid Teddy being a major. I feel like it would be really hard for people to take a Cat 5 Teddy seriously, although if it made landfall at that intensity I suppose people who went through the eyewall could claim they experienced "5 cats at Teddy's." Hopefully that reference makes sense.

5 cats at Teddy's, that's hilarious!
from '5 nights at Freddy's' right, that game with the creepy animatronics? Imagine if Teddy also lasts "5 nights". You know, given the current pace of naming thanks to all the short-lived early birds we've seen, the name Teddy might be used for a Late October or November storm. Given the type of year that we're in, I was thinking about the possibility of seeing a hurricane analogous to Paloma 2008, in other words one of the strongest Nov hurricanes on record. I think very late October and most of November could remain active and if Teddy comes around Halloween or Day of the Dead it would add to the "creepy" factor to this name. Yeah man, I also don't see people taking a major hurricane Teddy seriously, lol.

And who knows, maybe Kyle ends up being the September beast.

[FireRat]

Watching TS Gonzalo on this 22nd-23rd of July...



Could this become the July hurricane? If we do get a hurricane in the MDR in July this year from Gonzalo or the wave soon coming off Africa, 2020 will become the 3rd Year of the Rat in a row to get a July MDR hurricane, the 1996 & 2008 Berthas come to mind. Going to be interesting to see what happens as the month draws to a close. So far we're been much farther along than I originally expected for the season so far in named storms, currently sitting at 7/0/0 vs the 4/2/1 expected by me by July 31. Gonzalo could put the season at 7/1/0 and possible Hanna even further at 8/1/0. I still think a July major is possible, perhaps Gonzalo if he doesn't fall apart in the Caribbean or future Isaias near month's end in the MDR. 9/2/1 might not be far-fetched by 7/31/2020.

This year is on such a fast pace, I kinda doubt we will have an first half of August lull now. Thought I would update the thread to highlight where we stand thus far. Definitely looking like we will have more than 19 named storms this year, but I'm holding steady on the 9 hurricanes and 6 majors.

[FireRat]

7/25/2020 and Hanna steals the show!



Becomes the 1st hurricane of the 2020 season and might strike south TX as a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 this afternoon/evening. There's our July hurricane, but not in the MDR. Invest 92L could make for an interesting end to the month and start of Aug.

[FireRat]

July 31 progress update:

9/2/0 as of 7/31/2020.

Quite a head start to the 2020 season and Isaias is still going at it! 2nd hurricane in July, and this one was MDR born! Bertha 1996 might be the closest analog to Isaias relevant to this thread, but with its position more south and west before heading for the Carolinas compared to Bertha which stayed just east of the Bahamas, and also happening at the end of July-start of Aug as opposed to Bertha's trek during July 9-13 1996.

[FireRat]

bump.
Laura is giving me some 1900 vibes in the track and intensity thus far and if it becomes stronger than forecast as it heads for Texas/Louisiana.



Meanwhile hurricane Marco is taking a similar track as another hurricane did in 1780, which hit Louisiana on Aug 24, 1780 as a major. Marco will likely not hit as a major, but the timing and track is interesting nonetheless.

For those new to this thread, 1780 and 1900 are Metal Rat years in the Chinese Zodiac, like 2020. This zodiacal combination happens every 60 years. Interesting times ahead.

[FireRat]

History Repeating?
Monster Hurricane Laura could be more proof to the 60-year cycle (possibly even 120-year cycle!) revealed by the Metal Rat year.
A powerful hurricane struck New Orleans in 1780, 240 years and 2 days ago. This storm was estimated to have been a Cat 4 based on accounts.
120 years later on Sept 8, 1900, the Galveston Hurricane struck, also at Cat 4...

Laura seems to want to strike right in between where the 1780 and 1900 hurricanes did, possibly also as Cat 4. I hope people take this thing seriously and evacuated from the storm-surge risk zones already! Watching the progress of this storm is mind blowing to say the least.

[Shell Mound]

History Repeating?
Monster Hurricane Laura could be more proof to the 60-year cycle (possibly even 120-year cycle!) revealed by the Metal Rat year.
A powerful hurricane struck New Orleans in 1780, 240 years and 2 days ago. This storm was estimated to have been a Cat 4 based on accounts.
120 years later on Sept 8, 1900, the Galveston Hurricane struck, also at Cat 4...

Laura seems to want to strike right in between where the 1780 and 1900 hurricanes did, possibly also as Cat 4. I hope people take this thing seriously and evacuated from the storm-surge risk zones already! Watching the progress of this storm is mind blowing to say the least.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200826/laura-cat4-1.png

This seems to have verified well, given that Laura made landfall earlier today as a strong Cat-4 system.

[FireRat]

This seems to have verified well, given that Laura made landfall earlier today as a strong Cat-4 system.

It sure seems like it Shell, I'm still in disbelief how we got such a powerhouse hitting the same general coastline of the GOM in 120 year intervals, this one right smack in the middle of the 1780 and 1900 C4 landfall points!

I have a feeling Laura is also a very strong indicator of what may still be to come in September and October. Could this season end up being like 1780? I believe that season was hyperactive, in contrast to the slow but still destructive 1900 & 1960 seasons. 2020 is forecast to be hyperactive, so 1780 might actually be the best Metal Rat analog year for this one, we already got the Late August monster in Louisiana.

This could mean that the Cape Verde season might extend into October like it did that year. At least 2 Oct hurricanes, majors at that, originated from waves coming off Africa in late September and early Oct that season. We don't know if there were any big September hurricanes that year, because it was so long ago and those storms didn't hit land, but we surely know about the October onslaught that followed. If we somehow get a lull in September, which would be unlikely, we could still see some crazy stuff in October coming from the east.

2020 might even end up being a mix of 1780, 1900 and 1960 if we do end up getting a big September hurricane tracking over the Bahamas, Florida and up the east coast

These are my latest thoughts guys.

[FireRat]

progress update: Ended August 2020 with...
13/4/1 as of 8/31/2020.

What will September bring? At this point, my prediction for 19 total named storms is in serious jeopardy, what a ridiculously busy season it has been thus far

Would not surprise me.if we ended up with something like 25/11/6 by Nov 30.
My original just for the record is 19/9/6, which means it would have to be ridiculously slow in September for this to verify, at least the 19 part. Still fairly confident in the 9 hurricanes and 6 majors. The # of majors will likely go either way, 3 to 8, so 6 would be in the middle more or less. This season is turning out unpredictable indeed, whew!

[Shell Mound]

Well, aside from Laura, we seem to have been rather fortunate, since most of the feared scenarios here have not occurred...yet.

[FireRat]

Well, aside from Laura, we seem to have been rather fortunate, since most of the feared scenarios here have not occurred...yet.

True indeed, Laura has been the big one of the season so far and Sally in 2nd place for strong landfall Gulf Coast again too, but lucky elsewhere for the most part considering we got to the Greeks without a 2005-impact repeat so far. Looks like FL will luck out from a hit from the east, but can't discount an October strike from the south, that whacks Cuba first.

I still can't help to wonder and ponder about this season, if this Metal Rat year could possibly be the most close to 1780. The years of 1900 and 1960 were much quieter seasons than this one, which still featured their one-hit wonders. 1780 on the other hand, despite being so long ago, was likely very active based on accounts, and probably more in line with this absurdly busy numberwise season. (the seasonal number predictions definitely got scrambled this year, currently sitting at 23/8/2 if correct)

That season featured the most Laura-like event of the Metal Rat years, kinda eerie I must admit, in Louisiana as well and so close to the date too, Aug 24, 1780 VS Aug 27, 2020.

I am wondering, only thinking and not boldly predicting, if October 2020 will pull off anything like October 1780 did, with 3 significant hurricanes in the Caribbean and Islands. The Cape Verde season overextended into Mid October that year with The Great Hurricane smashing the Leewards and PR, and the Caribbean had a likely C5 strike Jamaica and another powerful storm cross the Yucatan Channel affecting Cuba and likely FL thereafter. That year had no known September hits from the east anywhere in the Islands or Eastern US too.

It's going to be very interesting to see how October behaves this year.

[Shell Mound]

Well, aside from Laura, we seem to have been rather fortunate, since most of the feared scenarios here have not occurred...yet.

True indeed, Laura has been the big one of the season so far and Sally in 2nd place for strong landfall Gulf Coast again too, but lucky elsewhere for the most part considering we got to the Greeks without a 2005-impact repeat so far. Looks like FL will luck out from a hit from the east, but can't discount an October strike from the south, that whacks Cuba first.

I think the big lesson is that science trumps superstition. Many people here were expecting the worst simply because “it’s 20/20” and therefore the worst must find a way to happen. So far one can easily find many years with fewer NS yet much greater death and destruction, to not mention much higher ACE often as well. 1780 and 1900 are just a few of the many examples; I could also mention, for instance, 1926, 2004, and even 2008. This thread is proof that pseudoscientific intuition is often partly right, but more often than not partly—or even entirely—wrong. If “hard” science is far from a state of perfection, then “soft” science, not to mention esotericism, is even more so, or at least equally so. If anything, science shows that not even 2020 can overcome the legendary MH “shield” over peninsular Florida, so at least one superstition trumps another in terms of its record.

[ElectricStorm]

Well, aside from Laura, we seem to have been rather fortunate, since most of the feared scenarios here have not occurred...yet.

True indeed, Laura has been the big one of the season so far and Sally in 2nd place for strong landfall Gulf Coast again too, but lucky elsewhere for the most part considering we got to the Greeks without a 2005-impact repeat so far. Looks like FL will luck out from a hit from the east, but can't discount an October strike from the south, that whacks Cuba first.

I think the big lesson is that science trumps superstition. Many people here were expecting the worst simply because “it’s 20/20” and therefore the worst must find a way to happen. So far one can easily find many years with fewer NS yet much greater death and destruction, to not mention much higher ACE often as well. 1780 and 1900 are just a few of the many examples; I could also mention, for instance, 1926, 2004, and even 2008. This thread is proof that pseudoscientific intuition is often partly right, but more often than not partly—or even entirely—wrong. If “hard” science is far from a state of perfection, then “soft” science, not to mention esotericism, is even more so, or at least equally so. If anything, science shows that not even 2020 can overcome the legendary MH “shield” over peninsular Florida, so at least one superstition trumps another in terms of its record. :lol:

The bold statement is a bit premature as October is the most dangerous month for Florida landfalls and the models are showing some potential trouble in the Caribbean that could make its way over there...

[Shell Mound]

True indeed, Laura has been the big one of the season so far and Sally in 2nd place for strong landfall Gulf Coast again too, but lucky elsewhere for the most part considering we got to the Greeks without a 2005-impact repeat so far. Looks like FL will luck out from a hit from the east, but can't discount an October strike from the south, that whacks Cuba first.

I think the big lesson is that science trumps superstition. Many people here were expecting the worst simply because “it’s 20/20” and therefore the worst must find a way to happen. So far one can easily find many years with fewer NS yet much greater death and destruction, to not mention much higher ACE often as well. 1780 and 1900 are just a few of the many examples; I could also mention, for instance, 1926, 2004, and even 2008. This thread is proof that pseudoscientific intuition is often partly right, but more often than not partly—or even entirely—wrong. If “hard” science is far from a state of perfection, then “soft” science, not to mention esotericism, is even more so, or at least equally so. If anything, science shows that not even 2020 can overcome the legendary MH “shield” over peninsular Florida, so at least one superstition trumps another in terms of its record. :lol:

The bold statement is a bit premature as October is the most dangerous month for Florida landfalls and the models are showing some potential trouble in the Caribbean that could make its way over there...

Anything that forms and threatens peninsular Florida isn’t likely to be significant, based on projected conditions over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

[FireRat]

bumping the thread a bit on this Halloween to look back on the insanity that was October, and the potentially scary November at hand...

Who would've thought that Louisiana would get struck by 2 significant hurricanes this month, Greek storms no less!
We have pushed our way through Zeta, which was an unbelievable late season hurricane for the CONUS, just 1 mph away from a Cat 3!

Now we have potential Eta at hand, one that could become a true monster in the Caribbean... in NOVEMBER.
The last two 'Years of the Rat', 1996 and 2008, featured November hurricanes in the Caribbean, so this could be another indication that Nov will be a busy one, and add to this the touch from 2020's level of insanity and we might as well have multiple hurricanes in November. It almost seems that October was more like Late September in the tropics with tracks well into the GOM. Perhaps November will behave like a typical busy October? Eta might confirm this real soon IMO. All of you in the Caribbean as well as the GOM east to Florida, Bahamas and even north of there should still keep a wary eye on the tropics despite it being Nov!

It looks like the October - November + Year of the Rat combination is a powerful one, and not just here in the Atlantic...
The Philippines are getting ready to get struck late tonight or tomorrow Nov 1, by what has become one of the most powerful typhoons in history... the monster that is Goni, about as insane as Haiyan and Meranti.

Well, back to watching how things evolve in the coming days, the madness continues...

[FireRat]

And the madness continued....

NOVEMBER 2020 = INSANITY

ETA ... Nov 2-3


IOTA ... Nov 16-17


We will probably never forget what we saw this month, the equivalent of July 2005, an incredibly rare anomaly! This crazy month probably defined this season too IMO.

Relevant to this thread, I'd say this year was kind of like 1780 with a highly anomalous and violent late season after all.
Remember, October 1780 featured 3 monster hurricanes between the NW Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles with the difference being the locations impacted and how late in the season they occurred... back then it was the Leewards, Jamaica and Cuba that took the hits, and in November 2020 it was Central America that took the hit.

Both 1780 and 2020 earlier had Louisiana in common too, in Late August. Both seasons had late season monsters and the Great Hurricane of 1780 and Savanna Le Mar hurricane were both likely Cat 5's... kind of like this year's Eta and Iota. Perhaps the most astonishing thing is that this year's most brutal month was NOVEMBER.

What an unreal season it has been, and who knows if there could be yet another November surprise around the corner? Hopefully not!