(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

[Aric Dunn]

Also the first of likely many vorts that will likley get spit out is developing just east of key west racing west.. Clearly see it on radar closing in on key west. wont be surprised to see some warnings out for this cluster soon.

[SFLcane]

tracks across SE florida. drifting/stall east of central flroida out to 90 hours.. that is quite a shift in the thinking..

it is weaker which may have allowed it miss that shortwave. too bad the 6z does not go past 90 hours..

https://i.ibb.co/X80KW3V/modezrpd-20200518-0000-animation.gif

Every run is a little different based on the convection. It's not a classic cyclone. Doubt it misses the shortwave the cutoff is there.

[mitchell]

GFS model has been hinting at a second system spinning up and coming ashore behind the departing tropical low. this morning's run would have storm force winds along the coast of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware on Wednesday.

[aspen]

Up to a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

It's fascinating that preseason activity has become almost an expectation. Went most of the 80s, 90s, and early 00s with almost none.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/97301153_3042030669209659_873518789486968832_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_oc=AQnYnsqrmEKcH1vDTAjHPL6N-kvBC4_CkQfSXp3XDir8XgX4_LNGJNGEspd9km8vM4sVl1wcSHev83KIpeTYP20D&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=82a4c0c2c6de27fc76c523c19e614252&oe=5EE3749A

In 2016 the first named storm formed on January 12th.

[Ubuntwo]

It's fascinating that preseason activity has become almost an expectation. Went most of the 80s, 90s, and early 00s with almost none.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/97301153_3042030669209659_873518789486968832_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_oc=AQnYnsqrmEKcH1vDTAjHPL6N-kvBC4_CkQfSXp3XDir8XgX4_LNGJNGEspd9km8vM4sVl1wcSHev83KIpeTYP20D&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=82a4c0c2c6de27fc76c523c19e614252&oe=5EE3749A

In 2016 the first named storm formed on January 12th.

Yeah and it was a hurricane too, how do you miss that

[Aric Dunn]

It's fun watching all these Meso Vorts slowly transferring vorticity into the column, changing the angular momentum, and seeing the kinks/turbulence in the downstream wind field.

over the next 12 hours this will create an inverted V wave that will then close off somewhere west of or SW of key west.

[Ian2401]

It's fun watching all these Meso Vorts slowly transferring vorticity into the column, changing the angular momentum, and seeing the kinks/turbulence in the downstream wind field.

over the next 12 hours this will create an inverted V wave that will then close off somewhere west of or SW of key west.

It's gonna close off West of Key West? I' m not seeing any model consensus on that so I'm curious why you think that and what kind of implications that would have should it occur.

[SFLcane]

Nothing for the metro areas of SFL..

You don't want to be on the upshear side of an early-season storm If you want some wx.

[Jr0d]

Feels like tropical weather here in Key West, rainy and windy however no pressure drop yet. We not see much of a drop because the tropical blob with be moving northeast and away as it consolidates.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a possible tornado running the length of the 7 mile bridge in the keys..

[Jr0d]

We are under a special marine warning til 1130.

[Jr0d]

looks like a possible tornado running the length of the 7 mile bridge in the keys..

Looks like that vort is driving down US 1. Ill keep an eye on it.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning
Has been windy and raining here in Key Largo since last night

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a possible tornado running the length of the 7 mile bridge in the keys..

Looks like that vort is driving down US 1. Ill keep an eye on it.

surprised there is no warning out for that cell the couplet is well produced.

[plasticup]

It's fascinating that preseason activity has become almost an expectation. Went most of the 80s, 90s, and early 00s with almost none.

Well that's because they started naming subtropical storms in 2002.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing for the metro areas of SFL..

You don't want to be on the upshear side of an early-season storm If you want some wx.

https://i.imgur.com/1M3tfW1.gif

Geez! Where’s that rainy season at?

[TheStormExpert]

GFS model has been hinting at a second system spinning up and coming ashore behind the departing tropical low. this morning's run would have storm force winds along the coast of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware on Wednesday.

https://i2.wp.com/www.mostoke.com/wp-content/uploads/hm_bbpui/63575/4s7z40qa2oebbnbsutd2asyj7mbgvowt.gif?w=730&ssl=1

Of course it won’t be tropical at all in nature. Try looking at the Western Gulf in 5-7 days for your next chance at anything tropical.

[plasticup]

00z CMC forms a hurricane, blocks it, and pushes it due West into New Jersey:

[Aric Dunn]

Increasing low to mid level circ south of Key west on sat and radar. not to the surface of course yet. but the broad circ on radar is very clear.