(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

[cycloneye]

Increasing low to mid level circ south of Key west on sat and radar. not to the surface of course yet. but the broad circ on radar is very clear.

[GCANE]

Been watching the area half-way between Key West and Havana all morning.
Circulation looks really good on radar now.
Not too much shear and sitting in a moderate CAPE ridge.
Looks like its on a slow brew.

[GCANE]

Sweet

[Aric Dunn]

Been watching the area half-way between Key West and Havana all morning.
Circulation looks really good on radar now.
Not too much shear and sitting in a moderate CAPE ridge.
Looks like its on a slow brew.

yeah increasing southerly inflow just above the surface with that heavy band developing.

watching surface obs over the coast of cuba to switch out of the south soon. after that it wouldn't be all to long before we start seeing vorts spinning around.

[GCANE]

850mb vort strengthening and closing in on the vort shown on radar.

[GCANE]

Been watching the area half-way between Key West and Havana all morning.
Circulation looks really good on radar now.
Not too much shear and sitting in a moderate CAPE ridge.
Looks like its on a slow brew.

yeah increasing southerly inflow just above the surface with that heavy band developing.

watching surface obs over the coast of cuba to switch out of the south soon. after that it wouldn't be all to long before we start seeing vorts spinning around.

335K PV is in the clear just east of this axis.
Any push east of the LL vort and this could pop quickly.

[Nancy Smar]

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 24N74W TO 23N80W TO 27N79W TO 28N68W TO 28N63W TO
24N74W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 24N74W TO 22N76W TO 23N80W TO 27N79W TO
27N77W TO 24N74W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT EXCEPT LESS THAN 8 FT LEE OF BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 23N79W TO 28N80W TO 30N76W TO 28N64W TO 27N62W TO
23N79W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 24N74W TO 23N76W TO 26N79W TO 27N79W TO
27N77W TO 24N74W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT EXCEPT LESS THAN 8 FT LEE OF BAHAMAS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 26N66W TO 22N73W TO 26N80W TO 29N80W TO 29N70W
TO 26N66W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 27N76W TO 23N79W. WITHIN 27N68W TO
23N73W TO 26N80W TO 30N80W TO 30N73W TO 27N68W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27.5N78W. WITHIN 24N74W TO 26N78W TO 31N80W TO 31N73W TO 30N70W
TO 24N74W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs is interesting and right in line with what is currently happening. Im am still not buying the double vorticity developing..

but all the south florida people wanting rain.. this lines up well with the 6z euro and the mesocale models. at least through 48 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 51412&fh=6

[SFLcane]

12z gfs has it hugging the SFL coast 1003mb.

[Aric Dunn]

also the GFS is showing that short wave dropping south wayyy earlier over the illinois instead of maryland and north carolina. that creates a negative tilt .. looks to almost get pulled back nw here shortly..

[Aric Dunn]

Latest 12z gfs 850mb winds.. surface trough is just south of this.. things quickly taking shape..

[cycloneye]

We have the Invest 90L thread as well the recon thread so this thread is locked.