(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

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northjaxpro
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#61 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 13, 2020 9:34 am

NDG wrote:Even with the Euro's further east with development on its 0z run it still dumps some much needed rains in SE FL this weekend as the disturbance lifts to the NE.
Obviously a more shift to the west brings heavier rains to the rest of SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/h8hvnRB.png
https://i.imgur.com/ySUgdPG.png


Right NDG. This is what I was seeing as well in prior runs. The moisture shield in its developmental stages still have it over much of Southeast Florida. This is why I stated earlier that any more shifts west in the formative stages of the cyclone could have significant effects for much of Southeast Florida this weekend. This is why I stated earlier there are still variables on the table and we have to watch this very closely with future model runs.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed May 13, 2020 9:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#62 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 13, 2020 9:34 am

NDG wrote:Even with the Euro's further east with development on its 0z run it still dumps some much needed rains in SE FL this weekend as the disturbance lifts to the NE.
Obviously a more shift to the west brings heavier rains to the rest of SE FL.

https://i.imgur.com/h8hvnRB.png
https://i.imgur.com/ySUgdPG.png


This...
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2020 9:58 am

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#64 Postby GCANE » Wed May 13, 2020 10:20 am

IMHO, how this all develops is more on a meso-scale level. Global models don't have the resolution to handle that.
Lift from the negative-tilt short wave coupled with the dryline will fire off deep convection.
That is a given.
It is how this convection creates a surface low is what needs to happen.
Strong, long duration towers with high helicity will do that.
Just need to see what happens.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#65 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 13, 2020 10:20 am

It’s not surprising to see the 06z Euro trend closer to SE Florida like the 06z GFS showed. Anyone have the 06z Euro Ensembles?
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#66 Postby plasticup » Wed May 13, 2020 10:41 am

Ah yes, the classic May hurricane off the New Jersey shore. Shaping up to be an interesting season already:

Image
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#67 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed May 13, 2020 10:54 am

Lot of assumptions about a storm that hasn't formed yet.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed May 13, 2020 10:55 am

quite a bit stronger ridging north of it through 84 hours on the 12z GFS. stalls and drfits ese near the northern bahamas.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#69 Postby DioBrando » Wed May 13, 2020 11:02 am

plasticup wrote:Ah yes, the classic May hurricane off the New Jersey shore. Shaping up to be an interesting season already:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020051306/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_26.png


humberto is that you


(on a serious note i don't think that would happen anyway)
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#70 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 13, 2020 11:13 am

12z GFS is East of the 06z run and takes it straight through the Northern Bahama Islands. Still some rain for SE Florida but not as much as what was shown on the 06z run.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#71 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed May 13, 2020 11:17 am

12z run from euro 2 days ago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=240 .. that short wave that is there now on the gfs and euro which swings se..

just swings east quickly across great lakes....

so many possible options still.. first thing first we need at least a broad low pressure down there before anything the models point can be relied upon.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#72 Postby GCANE » Wed May 13, 2020 11:37 am

NAM showing MSLP dropping in the Keys from currently 1019mb to 1012mb early Saturday.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#73 Postby Siker » Wed May 13, 2020 11:38 am

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.05.2020

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 26.4N 75.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.05.2020 84 26.5N 74.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 17.05.2020 96 28.8N 72.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 18.05.2020 108 29.4N 71.2W 1006 34
1200UTC 18.05.2020 120 31.0N 71.5W 1005 32
0000UTC 19.05.2020 132 33.8N 69.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 19.05.2020 144 37.3N 67.9W 1000 40
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#74 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed May 13, 2020 1:04 pm

12z Euro has 3 separate lobes of vorticity. at 48 hours..

either any of them could consolidate or have multiple competing vorts.

all in all euro farther west thus far.

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#75 Postby TallyTracker » Wed May 13, 2020 1:28 pm

Time to wake up from winter hibernation in the Atlantic! 8-)

I’m really wondering about the strength of that Bermuda high. Here in Tallahassee we are supposed to have a long stretch of clear days with highs in the low to mid 90s for the next week or so. This is indicative of high pressure. If the Bermuda high holds, a tropical system (albeit likely weak) could get pushed toward the southeast US/Bahamas.

With that said, this time of year I would expect a cyclone to be picked up to the northeast.
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#76 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed May 13, 2020 1:39 pm

that SE diving Clipper system eats our future sub tropical storm again on the 12z euro..
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#77 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed May 13, 2020 1:49 pm

Welcome back everyone
a little early to say the least. So my boating plans in Key Largo are off the table this weekend?
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#78 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed May 13, 2020 1:50 pm

A rather stark contrast between today's 12z GFS and Euro runs; the former features a more compact and concentrated low while the latter is far more broad and is thus weaker. I would imagine that the GFS solution would likely have a better shot at becoming a full-fledged tropical system if it were to come to fruition.

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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#79 Postby GCANE » Wed May 13, 2020 3:35 pm

I like that helicity twist in the wind barbs, in some moderate CAPE, just off Havana, 60 hrs out.

Image
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Re: (Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas

#80 Postby GCANE » Wed May 13, 2020 3:44 pm

Atmosphere becoming more unstable south of the dryline.
Stronger afternoon popups over Cuba today, mainly on the eastern half of the island.
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