Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#141 Postby Siker » Mon May 25, 2020 4:42 pm

Neat that they posted a STWO. Looks like ~20/50 EPS members trip TC criteria on the weather.us tracker. Surface convergence, upper divergence, and 700mb vorticity (easy to see on visible) are centered right along the east coast of Florida as of the 18z analysis (now old). 850mb vorticity is still focused over FL and off to the west. Expect any feature to the west to die / fail to sustain convection as all other forcing focuses on the opposite side of Florida.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#142 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 25, 2020 4:57 pm

that sustained hot tower over there on the left sure looks interesting... better keep an eye on that little thing..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#143 Postby NDG » Mon May 25, 2020 5:19 pm

The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.

Image
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#144 Postby floridasun78 » Mon May 25, 2020 5:24 pm

NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.

https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png

news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#145 Postby jlauderdal » Mon May 25, 2020 5:58 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.

https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png

news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it
SE FL residents beware, they make a good case for more convection and they absolutely nailed this afternoons outcome with the late morning disco:
514  
FXUS62 KMFL 252054 AAA  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
454 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2020  
   
MESOSCALE UPDATE  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL/METRO  
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA CONTINUES AND IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD. THIS  
ACTIVITY COULD WORSEN INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC  
ZONE HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS  
INDICATE A SECONDARY CONFLUENCE AXIS AMID SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY  
FLOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE NAPLES AREA TO METRO MIAMI.  
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE  
SECONDARY CONFLUENCE AXIS ARE REINFORCING ITS BAROCLINICITY. TWO-  
HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5 MB PRONOUNCED ON  
THE BOUNDARYS COOLER SIDE SIGNAL ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE  
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OWING TO A CORRIDOR OF SUBTLY ENHANCED  
WARM ADVECTION. THIS WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING THE ONGOING  
BATCH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINS FROM NORTHEAST MAINLAND  
MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD TO METRO MIAMI AND MIAMI BEACH. THE  
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD,  
WHICH WILL GIVE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY FLOODING RAINS FROM MIAMI TO  
MIAMI BEACH AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OF AT LEAST LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN.  
 
STRONG CONVECTION, INCLUDING TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS, REMAIN  
RELEGATED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND THE GULF STREAM I.E.,  
OFF THE UPPER KEYS COAST. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN OVER THE  
OPEN WATERS, THE ONSET OF COMPARATIVELY ENHANCED NOCTURNAL COOLING  
AT THE TOP OF THE DEEP MOIST LAYER, AND ITS ACCOMPANYING  
STEEPENING OF TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, COULD YIELD AN EXPANSION  
AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 7 OR 8PM EDT.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO AND ONE-QUARTER INCHES, AND  
DEEP WARM-CLOUD LAYERS ACCOMPANYING RELATIVELY WARM 500-MB  
TEMPERATURES NEAR -5.5C, WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION /  
WARM-RAIN / COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES. ANTICIPATED NET STORM  
MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS COULD ALSO FAVOR PROLONGED HEAVY-  
RAIN DURATION AND RELATED CONDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL,  
ESPECIALLY PROVIDED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO PRECIPITATION RATES  
ASSOCIATED WITH MUCAPE AROUND OR ABOVE 750 J/KG. THESE FACTORS  
ESTABLISH THE VERY CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT  
FOR PROLONGING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, LONGER-TERM PROSPECTS  
CONCERNING THE MAINTENANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION  
ARE PRESENTLY UNCERTAIN.  
 
THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE WARM-ADVECTION CORRIDOR  
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER AREAS WHERE EARLIER FLOODING WAS  
SIGNIFICANT I.E., FROM DOWNTOWN MIAMI VICINITY TO MIAMI BEACH  
AT A TIME WHEN RAINFALL RATES ONCE AGAIN POTENTIALLY INCREASE.  
THIS COULD YIELD A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR FLOODING  
CONCERNS TO GREATLY WORSEN WHEN VULNERABILITY IS INCREASED  
I.E., AT NIGHT. MOREOVER, SUFFICIENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE, OWING TO  
AN AT-LEAST MODEST ONSHORE-FLOW COMPONENT BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF  
PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION, COULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED BACK-  
BUILDING OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING OR EVEN  
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  
 
THE REALIZATION OF RELATED WORSENING-FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE  
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEGREE OF BACK-BUILDING TO THE  
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOBETA-SCALE BAROCLINIC  
ZONE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, THUS PREDICTABILITY GOING  
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LIMITED, THOUGH NOCTURNAL  
EFFECTS COULD ENHANCE SUCH POTENTIAL. SO, ULTIMATELY, THERE  
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER FLOODING IMPACTS COULD  
INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL DOES  
EXIST, AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS PARTICULARLY EASTERN MIAMI-  
DADE COUNTY ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FROM THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
OTHERWISE, FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF MIAMI FROM BROWARD INTO PALM  
BEACH COUNTIES, THE PROGRESSION OF WARM-ADVECTION-ENHANCED  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AMID A SIMILAR  
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT TO THAT DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND STRONGER  
MESOSCALE ASCENT COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST, THIS WILL  
FAVOR VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND FLOODING  
CONCERNS POTENTIALLY GROWING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. HOWEVER, EARLIER  
THETA-E DEFICITS WITH INCREASING DISPLACEMENT NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE  
COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF LARGEST MEAN MIXING  
RATIOS IN THE LOWEST 100 MB E.G., AT OR ABOVE 18 G/KG  
SHOULD KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS CENTERED IN AN  
AREA FROM DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH AND EXTENDING INTO  
SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY.  
 
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER HEAVY RAIN CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO TONIGHT,  
HIGH-END STREAMFLOW RESPONSES EVIDENT IN DATA FROM THE NATIONAL  
SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY (NSSL) FLOODED LOCATIONS AND SIMULATED  
HYDROGRAPHS PROJECT SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR  
ONGOING FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE, EVEN FOLLOWING THE CESSATION OF  
HEAVIER RAINS -- PARTICULARLY IN THE MIAMI-AREA URBAN CORRIDOR  
ALONG US-1 TOWARD MIAMI BEACH AND A1A VICINITY. AT LEAST A FEW  
MORE HOURS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL PROLONG SUCH RISK, AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO WORSEN COULD REASONABLY EXTEND INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT PERHAPS WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#146 Postby northjaxpro » Mon May 25, 2020 6:03 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.

https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png

news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it


This is the vort NHC anticipates this will move N/NE and be positioned near Cape Canaveral by 06Z early tomorrow morning. GFS earlier closed off this at that time just off the coast. We will monitor it closely.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#147 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 25, 2020 6:44 pm

the sustained hot tower ( bottom left of loop) appears to have closed off a more defined circ.

looks like this will ride east along the trough overnight. convection building in a "pre band" band west of tampa.

very interesting. So far all surface obs indicate nothing east of florida or over florida any longer.

Image
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#148 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 25, 2020 7:29 pm

just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#149 Postby jlauderdal » Mon May 25, 2020 7:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
We have rotation in sofla..tornado warning in hollywood...5.04 inches in the bucket today and enough energy left to make a funnel cloud..i have been under hurricane warnings with far less weather than we have seen the last 10 days
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#150 Postby Nimbus » Mon May 25, 2020 8:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.


Thanks I saw the convection picking up and was going to check the buoys.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#151 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 25, 2020 9:27 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.


Thanks I saw the convection picking up and was going to check the buoys.


it has continued to improve and a few observations have switched offshore. looks like it is coming together pretty quickly east of Jupiter.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#152 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 25, 2020 9:57 pm

Shouldn’t we change the title to reflect that it’s now over or to the East of Florida and has a 20% mention by the NHC?
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#153 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon May 25, 2020 10:23 pm

Plenty of convective activity east of Florida near the Bahamas. That could help this thing develop a circulation. Still, shear is high so formation isn't very likely.
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#154 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon May 25, 2020 10:26 pm

There we go a closed circ just east of Jupiter.

multiple obs from east in Stuart, NNW is Palm Beach Gardens. West in Palm beach and Lake worth.
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#155 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2020 6:02 am

moved inland over nght. so unless it reforms offshore we wont see development
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#156 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2020 6:12 am

it was fun watching it develop last night on radar and surface obs just offshore jupiter. ... wen to sleep and woke up...

you can see it inland just west of the Melbourne radar site.
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#157 Postby northjaxpro » Tue May 26, 2020 6:25 am

:uarrow: The system is forecast to move N/NE right along the coast or move just.off the coast parallel to the Florida East Coast. .

But, even with shear here, It has a puncher's chance to be named at least a TD in this very narrow window in the next 18- 24 hours before moving ashore along the SC coast by tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#158 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 26, 2020 6:30 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: The system is forecast to move N/NE right along the coast or move just.off the coast parallel to the Florida East Coast. .

But, even with shear here, It has a puncher's chance to be named at least a TD in this very narrow window in the next 18- 24 hours before moving ashore along the SC coast by tomorrow afternoon.


Yeah, it will have to reform offshore at this point. it is nearly over orlando at the moment. looks like the larger broad rotation over the eastern gulf started tugging on it.

will be interesting to see what happens with it. At least where it currently is will bring you more rain !

:)
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#159 Postby northjaxpro » Tue May 26, 2020 6:32 am

It should give us here in Jax area an opportunity to get at least 1-2 inches of rainfall as it passes through the area along or just off the coast the next 18-24 hours. We desperately need this rain!
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Re: Disturbance near Florida

#160 Postby NDG » Tue May 26, 2020 7:50 am

Very clearly on vis sat loop and surface observations that weak low pressure center is still inland, now over eastern Orange/Seminole Counties.

Image
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