Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
Neat that they posted a STWO. Looks like ~20/50 EPS members trip TC criteria on the weather.us tracker. Surface convergence, upper divergence, and 700mb vorticity (easy to see on visible) are centered right along the east coast of Florida as of the 18z analysis (now old). 850mb vorticity is still focused over FL and off to the west. Expect any feature to the west to die / fail to sustain convection as all other forcing focuses on the opposite side of Florida.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
that sustained hot tower over there on the left sure looks interesting... better keep an eye on that little thing..
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.
https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png
news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6771
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
SE FL residents beware, they make a good case for more convection and they absolutely nailed this afternoons outcome with the late morning disco:floridasun78 wrote:NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.
https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png
news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it
514
FXUS62 KMFL 252054 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
454 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2020
MESOSCALE UPDATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL/METRO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA CONTINUES AND IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD WORSEN INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A SECONDARY CONFLUENCE AXIS AMID SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE NAPLES AREA TO METRO MIAMI.
CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
SECONDARY CONFLUENCE AXIS ARE REINFORCING ITS BAROCLINICITY. TWO-
HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5 MB PRONOUNCED ON
THE BOUNDARYS COOLER SIDE SIGNAL ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OWING TO A CORRIDOR OF SUBTLY ENHANCED
WARM ADVECTION. THIS WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING THE ONGOING
BATCH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINS FROM NORTHEAST MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD TO METRO MIAMI AND MIAMI BEACH. THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD,
WHICH WILL GIVE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY FLOODING RAINS FROM MIAMI TO
MIAMI BEACH AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OF AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN.
STRONG CONVECTION, INCLUDING TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS, REMAIN
RELEGATED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND THE GULF STREAM I.E.,
OFF THE UPPER KEYS COAST. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, THE ONSET OF COMPARATIVELY ENHANCED NOCTURNAL COOLING
AT THE TOP OF THE DEEP MOIST LAYER, AND ITS ACCOMPANYING
STEEPENING OF TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, COULD YIELD AN EXPANSION
AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 7 OR 8PM EDT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO AND ONE-QUARTER INCHES, AND
DEEP WARM-CLOUD LAYERS ACCOMPANYING RELATIVELY WARM 500-MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -5.5C, WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION /
WARM-RAIN / COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES. ANTICIPATED NET STORM
MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS COULD ALSO FAVOR PROLONGED HEAVY-
RAIN DURATION AND RELATED CONDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY PROVIDED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO PRECIPITATION RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH MUCAPE AROUND OR ABOVE 750 J/KG. THESE FACTORS
ESTABLISH THE VERY CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
FOR PROLONGING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, LONGER-TERM PROSPECTS
CONCERNING THE MAINTENANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION
ARE PRESENTLY UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE WARM-ADVECTION CORRIDOR
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER AREAS WHERE EARLIER FLOODING WAS
SIGNIFICANT I.E., FROM DOWNTOWN MIAMI VICINITY TO MIAMI BEACH
AT A TIME WHEN RAINFALL RATES ONCE AGAIN POTENTIALLY INCREASE.
THIS COULD YIELD A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS TO GREATLY WORSEN WHEN VULNERABILITY IS INCREASED
I.E., AT NIGHT. MOREOVER, SUFFICIENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE, OWING TO
AN AT-LEAST MODEST ONSHORE-FLOW COMPONENT BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF
PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION, COULD ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED BACK-
BUILDING OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING OR EVEN
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
THE REALIZATION OF RELATED WORSENING-FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEGREE OF BACK-BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOBETA-SCALE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, THUS PREDICTABILITY GOING
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LIMITED, THOUGH NOCTURNAL
EFFECTS COULD ENHANCE SUCH POTENTIAL. SO, ULTIMATELY, THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER FLOODING IMPACTS COULD
INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST, AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS PARTICULARLY EASTERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE, FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF MIAMI FROM BROWARD INTO PALM
BEACH COUNTIES, THE PROGRESSION OF WARM-ADVECTION-ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AMID A SIMILAR
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT TO THAT DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND STRONGER
MESOSCALE ASCENT COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST, THIS WILL
FAVOR VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND FLOODING
CONCERNS POTENTIALLY GROWING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. HOWEVER, EARLIER
THETA-E DEFICITS WITH INCREASING DISPLACEMENT NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF LARGEST MEAN MIXING
RATIOS IN THE LOWEST 100 MB E.G., AT OR ABOVE 18 G/KG
SHOULD KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS CENTERED IN AN
AREA FROM DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH AND EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER HEAVY RAIN CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO TONIGHT,
HIGH-END STREAMFLOW RESPONSES EVIDENT IN DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY (NSSL) FLOODED LOCATIONS AND SIMULATED
HYDROGRAPHS PROJECT SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR
ONGOING FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE, EVEN FOLLOWING THE CESSATION OF
HEAVIER RAINS -- PARTICULARLY IN THE MIAMI-AREA URBAN CORRIDOR
ALONG US-1 TOWARD MIAMI BEACH AND A1A VICINITY. AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL PROLONG SUCH RISK, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO WORSEN COULD REASONABLY EXTEND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT PERHAPS WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF FLASH
FLOODING.
1 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
floridasun78 wrote:NDG wrote:The NHC likes the vortex just north of Lake O., but not by much.
https://i.imgur.com/PcId5pI.png
news spoke about it now that nhc will keep eye on it
This is the vort NHC anticipates this will move N/NE and be positioned near Cape Canaveral by 06Z early tomorrow morning. GFS earlier closed off this at that time just off the coast. We will monitor it closely.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
the sustained hot tower ( bottom left of loop) appears to have closed off a more defined circ.
looks like this will ride east along the trough overnight. convection building in a "pre band" band west of tampa.
very interesting. So far all surface obs indicate nothing east of florida or over florida any longer.
looks like this will ride east along the trough overnight. convection building in a "pre band" band west of tampa.
very interesting. So far all surface obs indicate nothing east of florida or over florida any longer.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6771
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
We have rotation in sofla..tornado warning in hollywood...5.04 inches in the bucket today and enough energy left to make a funnel cloud..i have been under hurricane warnings with far less weather than we have seen the last 10 daysAric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
2 likes
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
Aric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
Thanks I saw the convection picking up and was going to check the buoys.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
Nimbus wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:just offshore west palm is also interesting. though no surface obs sowing reaching the surface.
Thanks I saw the convection picking up and was going to check the buoys.
it has continued to improve and a few observations have switched offshore. looks like it is coming together pretty quickly east of Jupiter.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico
Shouldn’t we change the title to reflect that it’s now over or to the East of Florida and has a 20% mention by the NHC?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 208
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 pm
- Location: Inland Empire, SoCal
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Plenty of convective activity east of Florida near the Bahamas. That could help this thing develop a circulation. Still, shear is high so formation isn't very likely.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
Kay '22, Hilary '23
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
There we go a closed circ just east of Jupiter.
multiple obs from east in Stuart, NNW is Palm Beach Gardens. West in Palm beach and Lake worth.
multiple obs from east in Stuart, NNW is Palm Beach Gardens. West in Palm beach and Lake worth.
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
moved inland over nght. so unless it reforms offshore we wont see development
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
it was fun watching it develop last night on radar and surface obs just offshore jupiter. ... wen to sleep and woke up...
you can see it inland just west of the Melbourne radar site.
you can see it inland just west of the Melbourne radar site.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Disturbance near Florida
The system is forecast to move N/NE right along the coast or move just.off the coast parallel to the Florida East Coast. .
But, even with shear here, It has a puncher's chance to be named at least a TD in this very narrow window in the next 18- 24 hours before moving ashore along the SC coast by tomorrow afternoon.
But, even with shear here, It has a puncher's chance to be named at least a TD in this very narrow window in the next 18- 24 hours before moving ashore along the SC coast by tomorrow afternoon.
3 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: The system is forecast to move N/NE right along the coast or move just.off the coast parallel to the Florida East Coast. .
But, even with shear here, It has a puncher's chance to be named at least a TD in this very narrow window in the next 18- 24 hours before moving ashore along the SC coast by tomorrow afternoon.
Yeah, it will have to reform offshore at this point. it is nearly over orlando at the moment. looks like the larger broad rotation over the eastern gulf started tugging on it.
will be interesting to see what happens with it. At least where it currently is will bring you more rain !
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Disturbance near Florida
It should give us here in Jax area an opportunity to get at least 1-2 inches of rainfall as it passes through the area along or just off the coast the next 18-24 hours. We desperately need this rain!
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Very clearly on vis sat loop and surface observations that weak low pressure center is still inland, now over eastern Orange/Seminole Counties.
6 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], WAcyclone and 59 guests