Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

[ouragans]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across central Florida and the adjacent
Atlantic waters.

Showers and thunderstorms located over extreme northeastern
Florida, adjacent Atlantic waters, and the northwestern Bahamas are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low has formed
within the trough near Orlando, Florida, little if any further
development of this system is expected due to land interaction,
strong upper-level winds, and an abundance of dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere. The broad disturbance is forecast to
move northward today and Wednesday, remaining inland or near the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia today, and over portions of the Carolinas on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through
Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

looks like convection building offshore has started pulling the circ back to the coast. after nearly reaching orlando it has started moving ne.

[Aric Dunn]

Oddly enough our little friend in the gulf is quite persistent and it has made a friend.. that well defined MLC from yesterday that was moving across the gulf has decided to center itself right on top of the broad surface circ.

it is sitting in an area of low shear and convection is developing. not saying it is going to develop but if it becomes more defined and the SW flow increases. watch out Most of the Florida peninsula today for some good storm action.

[northjaxpro]

This is reminding.me of Tropical Storm Julia in 2016. Remrmber, Julia rode just.inland up along the Interstate 95 corridor from Volusia County all the way to my house . LIterally! LOL.. Julia' s actual COC passed directly over my home station and developed rapidly, and got named T S.. The pressure dropped to1005 mb and wind gusted to 57 mph as the center passed right over me.

Could we be seeing a repeat with this current feature? We will see. It has a well defined spin. Julia was one of the most interesting features to track and be in the middle of it for yours truly!

Point of the tale: I give this system a puncher's chance, despite the shear.. It may pull together as it drifts up my way later todsy.into tonight.

[jaxfladude]

Loving the rain so far in east Jacksonville, Florida....hope this stays a rain maker til it's end

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[NDG]

looks like convection building offshore has started pulling the circ back to the coast. after nearly reaching orlando it has started moving ne.

It sure has started to pull the circ back to the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Just getting the first rain/squall band moving through my home station right now. A beautiful sight!! We needed this in the worst way!

[Siker]

Fun, the 3Km NAM and the HRRR develop tight surface lows waaaay east and send a TS into SC.

[Aric Dunn]

IT is but a couple of miles from being back over water and cloud deck is thickening quickly. Convection looks primed to go off rather big once it does..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

[jaxfladude]

So chance of this getting a bit more organized and stronger? Or still just a much needed rain maker for SE Coastline?

[Aric Dunn]

So chance of this getting a bit more organized and stronger? Or still just a much needed rain maker for SE Coastline?

assuming it moves in at a decent speed with the shear it has a pretty decent shot.

[MississippiWx]

According to visible loops, the center is definitely back over water now. Looks very much like a TD to me.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS develops this slightly in 24 hours.

[gfsperpendicular]

Convection is popping up near the little swirl

[Aric Dunn]

According to visible loops, the center is definitely back over water now. Looks very much like a TD to me.

now that it is back offshore.. once convection starts to fill in around the center more.. I dont think they will have a choice but to upgrade to a TD.

then a TS would not be much longer after that.

[northjaxpro]

It has moved at the Palm Coast area / Flagler County coast , according to NWS radar composite. Also, convection is begining to build around the vort. I think it is beginning to pull together a bit now.

[Gums]

Salute!

Headed your way, North Jax

Good to see it clearing Cape Canveral, as the launch Wednesday could be a good deal for many folks.

Looks to be wrapping up near Daytona and then scooting out along coast.
====================
On Panhandle, we are more concerned with downrange models and another low in the Gulf.

Gums sends...

[BadLarry95]

Well this escalated quickly. It’s starting to remind me of TS Tammy from 2005. One of the few I remember that I woke up one morning before school and it was there

[ouragans]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1265317611019079683

[northjaxpro]

Getting very heavy rain/squalls right now here at the home station. Had a wind gust to 30 mph about 5 minutes ago.