Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

[typhoonty]

Edit: I suck at posting pics lol

One potential factor limiting this AOI's development chances is the degree of stratus NW of the system. During TS Julia there was much less stratus over Georgia. The reason this is problematic for TCG is it keeps the cool wedge in place. TCG isn't impossible, just a difference I noted given the comparisons on the thread to Julia.

[Siker]

The 12z combo of the GFS, 3Km NAM, and HRRR show a new surface low developing in the convection to the east of the currently visible low. This new low pivots up into the SC coastline as a tropical cyclone. For this solution to verify, the low level circulation that we've been tracking needs to dissipate / be wrapped into a broader circulation to its east. The 12z HRRR underestimated convective activity nearer the coast, which decreases the probability of a rapidly developing low offshore. However, recent satellite indicates the current low level circulation taking on a more eastward movement vector in the last hour, supporting the idea of at least some consolidation towards the east at the surface (if not the development of a new tight center to the east as some modeling showed). Additionally, surface convergence currently peaks towards the east closer to the zone of lowest shear and highest upper divergence according to the automated 15z analysis from CIMSS.

[MississippiWx]

The 12z combo of the GFS, 3Km NAM, and HRRR show a new surface low developing in the convection to the east of the currently visible low. This new low pivots up into the SC coastline as a tropical cyclone. For this solution to verify, the low level circulation that we've been tracking needs to dissipate / be wrapped into a broader circulation to its east. The 12z HRRR underestimated convective activity nearer the coast, which decreases the probability of a rapidly developing low offshore. However, recent satellite indicates the current low level circulation taking on a more eastward movement vector in the last hour, supporting the idea of at least some consolidation towards the east at the surface (if not the development of a new tight center to the east as some modeling showed). Additionally, surface convergence currently peaks towards the east closer to the zone of lowest shear and highest upper divergence according to the automated 15z analysis from CIMSS.
https://i.imgur.com/9Qcqzg0.gif
https://i.imgur.com/kc4sLxO.gif

Yeah, I think you’re right. Believe I jumped the gun on the original low that moved offshore. It seems to be getting absorbed by the feature to the east. This may allow a better shot at organization as shear appears to be less significant in this area. It’s also an area with higher moisture content.

[Aric Dunn]

the Sw and westerly inflow is increasing into that deep convection slightly farther east of the circ. radar showing that circ very quickly being pulled east.

should see center take hold and do a small cyclonic loop as it organizes. over gulf stream waters are plenty warm for a TS>

[Aric Dunn]

pretty straight forward..

[Nuno]

Where can I find barometric pressure readings for just offshore?

[northjaxpro]

Great eye and analyis Siker. Yeah the latest GFS run showed a redevelopment of surface Low about 50-75 miles off the Northeast Florida coast by 18Z today. That appears to be taking shape.

However, the current old vort traversed close enough to give us some much needed rainfall here in Northeast Florida. I have now picked up just under an inch currently, and more rain will pivot over the area up into early this evening before the old vort gets fully absorbed by the new surface Low farther off shore.

I think we have a good decent shot of seeing TD 2 or even Bertha in the very near term.

[TallyTracker]

Well this escalated quickly. It’s starting to remind me of TS Tammy from 2005. One of the few I remember that I woke up one morning before school and it was there

I agree. Tammy was the first system I thought of when I saw this system. Will be interesting to see how it evolves.

[Shell Mound]

A TCFA should be issued shortly for this system. It is certainly well on its way to becoming TS Bertha. The 12Z GFS actually develops a low-end TS within the next day that makes landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC, not too distant from the border with NC. Landfall between Charleston, SC, and Southport, NC, looks to be most plausible at this point, given the location of the emergent LLC and the position(s) of mean steering currents. At any rate, people in the Carolinas should already be prepared for a moderate tropical storm—45 to 50 knots.

[xironman]

Fun, the 3Km NAM and the HRRR develop tight surface lows waaaay east and send a TS into SC.

Looks like they could have been on to something

[Shell Mound]

Officially INVEST 91L per floater

[DorkyMcDorkface]

AL, 91, 2020052618, , BEST, 0, 296N, 810W, 25, 1010, LO

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91L is up