Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

[Aric Dunn]

The main surge of moisture and vorticity is just now getting into the SE gulf you can clearly see the circulation north of the western tip of cuba.

Convection should begin to build in that area soon.And by tomorrow morning will likely be looking at a quickly developing TC anywhere along trough

[SFLcane]

The main surge of moisture and vorticity is just now getting into the SE gulf you can clearly see the circulation north of the western tip of cuba.

Convection should begin to build in that area soon.And by tomorrow morning will likely be looking at a quickly developing TC anywhere along trough

https://i.ibb.co/pnDw1zY/LABELS-19700101-000000-2.gif

Looks like drier air maybe undercutting the disturbance tonight. HRRR has SFL drying up pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon. We shall see

[Aric Dunn]

The main surge of moisture and vorticity is just now getting into the SE gulf you can clearly see the circulation north of the western tip of cuba.

Convection should begin to build in that area soon.And by tomorrow morning will likely be looking at a quickly developing TC anywhere along trough

https://i.ibb.co/pnDw1zY/LABELS-19700101-000000-2.gif

Looks like drier air maybe undercutting the disturbance tonight. HRRR has SFL drying up pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon. We shall see

Not likely a dry air issue. moist in all levels as far as I can tell.

the likely cause is probably due to the upper divergence zone shifting north.

[Dean_175]

I get that this is not the most promising system(to say the least). NAM(00Z initial.) showing lots of land interaction and GFS (among others) not really showing much development either. There is also a lot of shear and this system will be blown northward in a couple days with likely land interaction; it may not have much time. It has yet to develop a closed low level circulation and the convection is not well defined. However, most models that I have seen show this system become better defined in the next 48 hours (not quite tropical development). Why won't the NHC at least assign a "near 0 percent chance of development"? They seem absolutely 100 percent confident this won't develop. Can someone please explain what the driving factor is there?

I don't expect to see anything develop, but can someone explain the absolute 0 percent the NHC is going with? I don't disagree with them, I just want to understand their reasoning. While there are many things against, there are a few factors in favor: 1)upper trough to the west creating upper divergence, 2)presence of sustained convection and 3) some vorticity at the surface.


Thanks

EDIT: 6Z NAM coming in less impressive(up to 12Z Tuesday) than the 0Z NAM. But still- why has the NHC remained 100 percent sure all this time?

[Slughitter3]

I can't upload the GIF from the computer I am on, but run this loop through and things seem to be spinning off of the Keys. Lots of rain to come.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tgenius]

So besides being awoken at 1:30am to a tornado warning a few miles south of me (that was fun) it sure looks like the vast majority of the severe rain will stay off the coast based on what I’m seeing on the radar loops.

[northjaxpro]

I can't upload the GIF from the computer I am on, but run this loop through and things seem to be spinning off of the Keys. Lots of rain to come.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like a mid-level circulation.just east of the Middle Keys. It is very noticeable on Key West and Miami NWS radar this morning.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the bulk of this might actually miss the mainland to the east.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the bulk of this might actually miss the mainland to the east.

There's a SE wind so I'm sure some of it at least will make it onshore.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS rides this mid- level feature, currently just east.of Key Largo, N/NE parallel up and along the Florida East Coast. This is exactĺy what we need to bring rain north into North and Northeast Florida, especially.on tomorrow, if the the GFS ends up right.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the bulk of this might actually miss the mainland to the east.

That seems to be verifying....getting some 40+ winds but not a ton of precip which is relative recently..anything less than a 2 inch day the last few weeks is considered dry

[gatorcane]

Yes very windy here near the coast in SE Palm Beach County. Certainly has the feel of a weak tropical storm.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Been raining here in Key Largo very heavy since yesterday wind really picked up over night.

[Shell Mound]

If storms such as Colin (2016) and Andrea (2019) can get named, I don’t see why this can’t. It’s at least as organised as those two storms were.

[jlauderdal]

If storms such as Colin (2016) and Andrea (2019) can get named, I don’t see why this can’t. It’s at least as organised as those two storms were.

You need an LLC and there isnt one, yet.

[Aric Dunn]

I slept way too long.. lol

looking at the long loop of radar and sat. almost looked like something tried to get going east of the keys. but surface obs never showed anything.

west of naples is where the broad circulation has moved too now. convection is building with that portion of the trough ...it has another 12 hours to get its act together before it starts running out of time.

shear is of course still both a benefitting factor and inhibitor so we will see how this mess plays out.

so many times before a sheared blob in this exact area have some how managed to pull itself together .. so we wait for a larger burst of convection to tighten that circ.

[Siker]

Shear is quite divergent, water is quite warm, moisture is quite moist. Just takes time to build an LLC when all of those factors are focused away (under the MCV) from the former broad low level center (now visible well west of Florida).

[northjaxpro]

Shear is quite divergent, water is quite warm, moisture is quite moist. Just takes time to build an LLC when all of those factors are focused away (under the MCV) from the former broad low level center (now visible well west of Florida).

Good analysis!

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is quite divergent, water is quite warm, moisture is quite moist. Just takes time to build an LLC when all of those factors are focused away (under the MCV) from the former broad low level center (now visible well west of Florida).

Good analysis!

well nortjaxpro this particular outcome will finally bring you much-needed rain since something developing east of florida looks less likely.

[Aric Dunn]

well the shear was supposed to relax some.. but seems it has come down more than expected. I wonder if this will play a role.