Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 10:38 am

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager we get a special TWO at 2pm today with 20% chance.


You know, that's not at all unreasonable. While I think that the upper level conditions are a bit strong, tomm. (Memorial Day) the 200mb winds do become markedly more divergent right at a point at around Sarasota. I think that "if" timing permitted, some low level convergence might try to coalesce where vertical wind shear might be less a factor. This could be one of those scenarios where we see a weak low develop off or on the coast but actually deepen a little while traversing Florida. My guess is that we see a developing T.D. come in around Sarasota and exit around Titusville. Minus other model support, i'm kind of leaning against the UK and don't think this will ever get tagged with a name.


agreed and as long as the circ moves with the shear it should have enough of a conducive upper environment.

also both the Euro and the UKMET bring it to TS force. even the GFS does in terms of winds. the GFS jut has multiple vorts everywhere and no organization.

most of the mesoscale models all develop it in some form either in the gulf or off east coast.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#42 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun May 24, 2020 10:44 am

Just in time to delay a certain historical event happening on May 27th in Florida.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#43 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 24, 2020 11:05 am

NAM's and GFS do seem to depict a developing broad 850 mb circulation but remaining west of Florida and generally moving northward into the N.E. GOM. I'd be impressed but equally surprised if any COC could quite develop over S.W. Florida by tomm. afternoon. I'm thinking perhaps falling pressures within a N.E.-S.W. oriented low. Hard for me to project any wind-related impact given that any increased gradient would seem to be well towards the east (maybe along the east coast if any broad low were to continue to deepen while crossing the state?). If you live in Florida, get your kayaks out just in case :fishing: How 'bout this, Wobble-Watching in May for the 2nd time already lol.
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#44 Postby jlauderdal » Sun May 24, 2020 11:13 am

chaser1 wrote:NAM's and GFS do seem to depict a developing broad 850 mb circulation but remaining west of Florida and generally moving northward into the N.E. GOM. I'd be impressed but equally surprised if any COC could quite develop over S.W. Florida by tomm. afternoon. I'm thinking perhaps falling pressures within a N.E.-S.W. oriented low. Hard for me to project any wind-related impact given that any increased gradient would seem to be well towards the east (maybe along the east coast if any broad low were to continue to deepen while crossing the state?). If you live in Florida, get your kayaks out just in case :fishing: How 'bout this, Wobble-Watching in May for the 2nd time already lol.
It seemed like the precip would be maximized south dade to marathon today but it appears that will corridor will be pushed 75 miles north
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#45 Postby Nuno » Sun May 24, 2020 11:43 am

jlauderdal wrote:
chaser1 wrote:NAM's and GFS do seem to depict a developing broad 850 mb circulation but remaining west of Florida and generally moving northward into the N.E. GOM. I'd be impressed but equally surprised if any COC could quite develop over S.W. Florida by tomm. afternoon. I'm thinking perhaps falling pressures within a N.E.-S.W. oriented low. Hard for me to project any wind-related impact given that any increased gradient would seem to be well towards the east (maybe along the east coast if any broad low were to continue to deepen while crossing the state?). If you live in Florida, get your kayaks out just in case :fishing: How 'bout this, Wobble-Watching in May for the 2nd time already lol.
It seemed like the precip would be maximized south dade to marathon today but it appears that will corridor will be pushed 75 miles north


We've received quite a bit of rainfall already in coastal central Dade county already. Does not look to let up anytime soon.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 11:54 am

vorticity is increasing a good deal.

12z
Image

15z
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#47 Postby jlauderdal » Sun May 24, 2020 11:59 am

GeneratorPower wrote:Oh yeah, baybee! Rainy season has started in earnest in South/Southwest Florida and not a moment too soon for wildfire suppression.
14 inches in the bucket last 10 days at my place
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#48 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 12:28 pm

Light rain just beginning in Port St. Lucie
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#49 Postby ouragans » Sun May 24, 2020 12:37 pm

A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf later
today. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W
tonight into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the
NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by
mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico could
reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#50 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 12:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:Light rain just beginning in Port St. Lucie


HRRR showing some crazy rains rotating into SFL.

Image
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#51 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 24, 2020 12:40 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Oh yeah, baybee! Rainy season has started in earnest in South/Southwest Florida and not a moment too soon for wildfire suppression.
14 inches in the bucket last 10 days at my place


Holy-Moly?!! I'm glad you guy's in S. Florida are getting all that precip. There's been a few juicy storms around my neck of the woods (a little northeast of Orlando), but so far I've managed to narrowly miss the recent near-by hail, and less then 2" of rain recently. This next system looks like it'll share it's rainfall event at least throughout the lower 2\3's of the peninsula. I'm hoping (though slightly skeptical) that widespread area's will see 4" +
No doubt though, some lucky winner of this pending 72 hr Florida Precipitation Lottery looks to receive a boat-load of rain. Jlauderdale, if that's you..... I hope your neighborhood has decent drainage considering all the recent rains you've already gotten.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#52 Postby boca » Sun May 24, 2020 12:41 pm

It’s been drizzling here in coconut creek all morning no heavy rain yet.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#53 Postby typhoonty » Sun May 24, 2020 12:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager we get a special TWO at 2pm today with 20% chance.


That isn't possible. NHC needs at least 30% to issue a STWO at a minimum. A product of their directives prior to hurricane season. This is justification in case people were wondering why nothing was circled yet.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#54 Postby TheProfessor » Sun May 24, 2020 12:53 pm

The GFS has been trending towards the Texas cut-off low stalling further east near the Ark-La-Tex region and in that case I'd expect the wave to go further east and cross the peninsula instead of moving due north into the panhandle.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#55 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 1:10 pm

12z euro not backing down... areas across SFL with 14+ inches of rainfall. :eek:

Image
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#56 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 1:11 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The GFS has been trending towards the Texas cut-off low stalling further east near the Ark-La-Tex region and in that case I'd expect the wave to go further east and cross the peninsula instead of moving due north into the panhandle.


12z Euro has shifted east. with most of the vorticity consolidating east of the state. Still appears that where will be a tight enough pressure gradient to get TS winds.

so depending on where the vorticity tracks and closes off will be key.

Image
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#57 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 1:13 pm

12Z Euro signaling 50mph plus gusts for the Treasure Coast

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1264620134590746624


Last edited by toad strangler on Sun May 24, 2020 1:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: RE: Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#58 Postby jlauderdal » Sun May 24, 2020 1:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z euro not backing down... areas across SFL with 14+ inches of rainfall. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/DbYslo3.png
Things have quieted down at my house, atmosphere in a lull while the dynamics to the sw get going.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#59 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 1:31 pm

Current surface winds in red. with a east to west trough lifting north

anywhere along that trough as it lifts north could quickly start spawning vorts.

models typically have a hard time dealing with systems like this and something could very quickly pop up.

in the short term.. keeping an eye on the west end of the boundary where the surface convergence is increasing.

Image
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#60 Postby Jr0d » Sun May 24, 2020 1:38 pm

Possibly the start of a pressure drop in Key West
Image
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