chaser1 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager we get a special TWO at 2pm today with 20% chance.
You know, that's not at all unreasonable. While I think that the upper level conditions are a bit strong, tomm. (Memorial Day) the 200mb winds do become markedly more divergent right at a point at around Sarasota. I think that "if" timing permitted, some low level convergence might try to coalesce where vertical wind shear might be less a factor. This could be one of those scenarios where we see a weak low develop off or on the coast but actually deepen a little while traversing Florida. My guess is that we see a developing T.D. come in around Sarasota and exit around Titusville. Minus other model support, i'm kind of leaning against the UK and don't think this will ever get tagged with a name.
agreed and as long as the circ moves with the shear it should have enough of a conducive upper environment.
also both the Euro and the UKMET bring it to TS force. even the GFS does in terms of winds. the GFS jut has multiple vorts everywhere and no organization.
most of the mesoscale models all develop it in some form either in the gulf or off east coast.