Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

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floridasun78
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#61 Postby floridasun78 » Sun May 24, 2020 1:45 pm

very rainy here in miami area we now break area but i see other area strong shower moving north by upper keys should be over miami next hour or so
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#62 Postby psyclone » Sun May 24, 2020 1:49 pm

This looks like your standard early season "plume of gloom" as I like to call it...more than any coherent tropical threat. It's a heavy rain threat for south florida...and the typical way the river of grass becomes a river each year. It's looking more like the southeast third of the peninsula is going to cash in with heavy rainfall...with an abrupt cutoff somewhere north and west of there.
Last edited by psyclone on Sun May 24, 2020 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#63 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun May 24, 2020 1:50 pm

GCANE, GCANE. where art thou?
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#64 Postby floridasun78 » Sun May 24, 2020 2:14 pm

look models on Tidbits show maybe td the most no ts but do show alot rain coming toward south fl and rest of fl
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 2:37 pm

Looks like there may be some initial signs of a circ trying to come together just north of the Yucatan Channel. need some more cloud line to develop.

But definately broad rotation now..
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#66 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 24, 2020 3:03 pm

I can see 2 or 3 small potential areas of very shallow circulation between 86W-88W, but wind shear looks prohibitive that far west. Upper conditions look to become a little more divergent closer to the W. Florida Coastline by this time tomm.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#67 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 24, 2020 3:09 pm

psyclone wrote:This looks like your standard early season "plume of gloom" as I like to call it...more than any coherent tropical threat. It's a heavy rain threat for south florida...and the typical way the river of grass becomes a river each year. It's looking more like the southeast third of the peninsula is going to cash in with heavy rainfall...with an abrupt cutoff somewhere north and west of there.


"Plume of Gloom" :cheesy: That's awesome. I'm gonna go with, an ISTCZ (InterSUBtropical Convergence Zone) LOL. Good bet that you're right about the overall rainfall distribution.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 3:10 pm

chaser1 wrote:I can see 2 or 3 small potential areas of very shallow circulation between 86W-88W, but wind shear looks prohibitive that far west. Upper conditions look to become a little more divergent closer to the W. Florida Coastline by this time tomm.


The shear right now is divergent and what is helping this get going.. I agree it becomes much more divergent closer to the coast.

This developing vortex will almost certainly redevelop/ride along the convergence line extending to its NE where all the Deep convection is building.

with a wind field that is closing off this early and far west increases development chances.

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#69 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 3:44 pm

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#70 Postby northjaxpro » Sun May 24, 2020 3:50 pm

I think the best chance of possible TD development would be in the next 24 hours imo.
Also, it looks more likely this system will remain lopsided and will move over the peninsula on Tuesday. As Psyclone stated earlier, South Florida is cashing in big time with this event with the rainfall. North Florida once again could miss out on this rain potential, unless whatever becomes of this system moves northward into Apalachee Bay. We desperately need it here as I have only neasured less than 1/10 of an inch of rain for the month of May to this point at my locale.
.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#71 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun May 24, 2020 3:54 pm

https://www.wunderground.com/history/da ... /2020-5-24

Squall with afternoon storms producing winds of 29 mph with gusts to 45 mph at St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Downtown Airport. Winds have come down now after the squall.

Picture of shelf cloud with squall: North Shore park downtown st Pete

https://photos.app.goo.gl/aExh8dFyM7itoyfX6
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#72 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 4:02 pm

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#73 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 4:06 pm

Bouy NW of key west.

Pressure are definitely falling. currently dropping well past the daily mean afternoon pressure falls. wouldn't be surprised if we get a vort or two out of that convection west of Key west that tries to organize.

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#74 Postby gatorcane » Sun May 24, 2020 4:21 pm

Might be worth a mention by NHC. Regardless flooding concerns have increased across SE Florida and even the possibilities of tornado activity with the shear profile. All me mentioned in the latest NWS Miami discussion.

Vorticity is increasing:

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#75 Postby tgenius » Sun May 24, 2020 4:23 pm

Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#76 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun May 24, 2020 4:31 pm

tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.

Most of that rain is supposed to fall tomorrow not today, in fact we're under a marginal convective risk for tomorrow
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#77 Postby tgenius » Sun May 24, 2020 4:35 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.

Most of that rain is supposed to fall tomorrow not today, in fact we're under a marginal convective risk for tomorrow


So your saying you think it will be what they are forecasting or will end up under (confused from the marginal convectice risk comment lol)
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#78 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun May 24, 2020 4:49 pm

tgenius wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.

Most of that rain is supposed to fall tomorrow not today, in fact we're under a marginal convective risk for tomorrow


So your saying you think it will be what they are forecasting or will end up under (confused from the marginal convectice risk comment lol)

I’m saying south Florida is under a day 2 marginal convective risk in the SPC forecast. They mention heavy storms over the area as well as possible down bursts and tornadoes.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#79 Postby NDG » Sun May 24, 2020 4:49 pm

Crappy wx to be at the beach today in Sarasota, the wind has been picking up. I could had swear that three days ago I looked at the GFS and it was supposed to be a dry and hot day today.

There’s definitely a weak circulation to the west of Cuba.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#80 Postby jlauderdal » Sun May 24, 2020 4:53 pm

tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.
1.6 since midnight at my house...I'm going with 4 by midnight based on pwat, modeling, current radar returns
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