Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

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SFLcane
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#81 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 5:17 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.
1.6 since midnight at my house...I'm going with 4 by midnight based on pwat, modeling, current radar returns


Things should crank with rainbands rotating from the keys NE into SFL overnight specially on Memorial day. So far i have picked up 1.21 since midnight here in Sunrise.

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#82 Postby jlauderdal » Sun May 24, 2020 5:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
tgenius wrote:Has definitely been a soaker of a day down here in SFL but I don’t think that euro is gonna play out based on what we’ve had so far, that 14 inches is a bit south of where I live, but so far we’ve had maybe 2ish inches so far.
1.6 since midnight at my house...I'm going with 4 by midnight based on pwat, modeling, current radar returns


Things should crank with rainbands rotating from the keys NE into SFL overnight specially on Memorial day. So far i have picked up 1.21 since midnight here in Sunrise.

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I need 2.25 by midnite to verify...looking to the southeast i have a decent shot, 70%
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#83 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 5:58 pm

Interestingly convection is building over the the circ in the yucatan channel. Sign pressure isnlikely falling and convergence is increasing.

The circ is slowly becoming more defined and expansive.. once it starts moving ne it will have good shot to deepen.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#84 Postby Jr0d » Sun May 24, 2020 6:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Bouy NW of key west.

Pressure are definitely falling. currently dropping well past the daily mean afternoon pressure falls. wouldn't be surprised if we get a vort or two out of that convection west of Key west that tries to organize.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42026&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT


Pressure is definately falling at the Key West.
Image

I expect the storms to pop tonight over the water. Tough to say if the NHC will issue a statement today They might be forced to if the wind observation indicate development tonight.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#85 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 6:21 pm

Jr0d wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Bouy NW of key west.

Pressure are definitely falling. currently dropping well past the daily mean afternoon pressure falls. wouldn't be surprised if we get a vort or two out of that convection west of Key west that tries to organize.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42026&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT


Pressure is definately falling at the Key West.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=kywf1&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

I expect the storms to pop tonight over the water. Tough to say if the NHC will issue a statement today They might be forced to if the wind observation indicate development tonight.


One would think they would say something at this point. Given the overall wind field has a broad circulation and with the vort in the chamnel.

But who knows maybe it will take stewart to come and and pull the trigger last minute .. like that one TS (forgot the name) that they upgraded a few hours before landfall in tampa.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#86 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 7:19 pm

18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#87 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun May 24, 2020 7:21 pm

The 12z Euro Control closes off a 1010 mb low off the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a STWO within the next day or so.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#88 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 7:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


That would mean big time rains for the East Coast of FL verbatim there AND a classic climo early season track. We'll see!
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#89 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun May 24, 2020 7:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif

What's the intensity? Looks pretty weak there
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#90 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 7:36 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif

What's the intensity? Looks pretty weak there


west of tampa its at 1006 mb.

would not focus on actual intensity. models are terrible with these types of systems.

given the current pressure in keywest and the bouys of about 1010mb well away from the circ.

I would say the lowest pressure out there somewhere is around 1008mb. so not much more orginization and it beats the all the models excep the UKMET.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#91 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 7:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


Aric, I am a paid member for weather.us and I don’t see the option for visible satélite on the 18z euro.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#92 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 7:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


Aric, I am a paid member for weather.us and I don’t see the option for visible satélite on the 18z euro.


under simulated satellite?
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#93 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 7:45 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


That would mean big time rains for the East Coast of FL verbatim there AND a classic climo early season track. We'll see!


Actually most of the deluge shifted to the west coast on the 18z euro. Might add i just spoke to a friend that works at the wfo Miami office and they are discarding the euro precipitation totals its suffering from convective feedback. Atleast that is the hope.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#94 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 24, 2020 7:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


Aric, I am a paid member for weather.us and I don’t see the option for visible satélite on the 18z euro.


under simulated satellite?


Got it! Thanks
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#95 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 7:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro now likes the current vortex and circulation near western cuba. takes it nne into the big bend area.

https://i.ibb.co/sCNpYtL/modezrpd-20200526-1200-animation.gif


That would mean big time rains for the East Coast of FL verbatim there AND a classic climo early season track. We'll see!


Actually most of the deluge shifted to the west coast on the 18z euro. Might add i just spoke to a friend that works at the wfo Miami office and they are discarding the euro precipitation totals its suffering from convective feedback. Atleast that is the hope.


I mean. sure. discard the euro. but all of the mesocale models are showing about the same..
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#96 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun May 24, 2020 8:27 pm

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#97 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 9:22 pm

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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#98 Postby aspen » Sun May 24, 2020 10:01 pm


A tropical cyclone in only 24 hours? That’s a pretty bold prediction there...let’s see if it holds up.
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#99 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 24, 2020 10:04 pm

aspen wrote:

A tropical cyclone in only 24 hours? That’s a pretty bold prediction there...let’s see if it holds up.


He said "One possible scenario" ...
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Re: Disturbance in the SE Gulf of Mexico

#100 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 24, 2020 10:07 pm

toad strangler wrote:
aspen wrote:

A tropical cyclone in only 24 hours? That’s a pretty bold prediction there...let’s see if it holds up.


He said "One possible scenario" ...


These types of setups can spin up a TC very quickly.
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