Disturbance over the west central Atlantic: (Is INVEST 92L)

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Disturbance over the west central Atlantic: (Is INVEST 92L)

#1 Postby Shell Mound » Wed May 27, 2020 11:30 am

Both the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS develop a subtropical cyclone by Sunday (D4, 31 May) at the very latest. This area should definitely be watched for STS formation, given that the synoptic environment is conducive, and SSTs are solidly above average in the area, so both large-scale and mesoscale factors, including thermodynamics, will favour the development of a subtropical cyclone. While this system is going to pass well to the east of Bermuda and won’t affect any land masses, it could well reach STS status before 1 June and thus make 2020 the first Atlantic season on record to feature three May cyclones.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#2 Postby cainjamin » Wed May 27, 2020 3:14 pm

Yeah the models have been hinting at something going on there for the past few days. There's convection building there however shear seems high.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#3 Postby AJC3 » Wed May 27, 2020 6:35 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Wed May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

<snip>

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring east of a surface trough that extends from 23N56W to
19N60W, with support from a vigorous mid-level low noted in water
vapor imagery.
Farther east, a dissipating cold front is
analyzed from 31N30W to 28N34W. Moderate trades prevail S of 20N
over the central Atlantic, while moderate to fresh E winds are
noted in earlier scatterometer data N of 25N in the vicinity of
another surface trough along 50W.


<snip>
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#4 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 27, 2020 10:14 pm

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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 28, 2020 7:40 am

Looks like it has already begun this morning with clear signs of low level turning.

EURO and UKMET sure seem to like it on the 00z runs

possibly another quick named pre season system..
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#6 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu May 28, 2020 8:13 am

It will be interesting to see if this ends up being fully tropical.
Last edited by BYG Jacob on Thu May 28, 2020 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#7 Postby ouragans » Thu May 28, 2020 8:24 am

No mention by the NHC in the TWD
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu May 28, 2020 10:50 am

Low level circ starting to come together on the Se portion of the upper low. with that recent convection popping up.

whole thing should rotate in a half moon loop to the nort/nw

could see this actually develop,..
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#9 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu May 28, 2020 10:52 am

This should get a mention soon with an invest designation too.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#10 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu May 28, 2020 11:10 am

12z ukmet
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 28.3N 56.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.05.2020 28.3N 56.9W WEAK

12UTC 30.05.2020 29.0N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.05.2020 28.9N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.05.2020 29.8N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.06.2020 31.7N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#11 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu May 28, 2020 12:02 pm

Welp if this forms lets hope this pace doesn't last all season. Most likely won't but a scary thought. 2005 really got rolling in July and kept producing. Imagine a season that got rolling in May and kept producing. But I know it's unlikely
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 12:14 pm

This has the next best potential to become Cristobal as the latest 12z run of the GFS continues to push back the date and be very inconsistent on the CAG storm.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#13 Postby Siker » Thu May 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Quite organized in only 48 hours on the 12z Euro:

Image

Not sure what kind of schedule the NHC prefers for the offseason but I feel like this will get a STWO tonight.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#14 Postby ouragans » Thu May 28, 2020 1:25 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:This should get a mention soon with an invest designation too.


No mention and not even a STWO. Is it because it's far from any land?
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#15 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu May 28, 2020 1:37 pm

ouragans wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:This should get a mention soon with an invest designation too.


No mention and not even a STWO. Is it because it's far from any land?


Probably due to model disagreement since only the Euro really develops it.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#16 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu May 28, 2020 1:41 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:
ouragans wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:This should get a mention soon with an invest designation too.


No mention and not even a STWO. Is it because it's far from any land?


Probably due to model disagreement since only the Euro really develops it.

UKMET develops it as well.

Image
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#17 Postby AnnularCane » Thu May 28, 2020 3:20 pm

Has there ever been a year with three preseason storms?
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 28, 2020 3:29 pm

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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic

#19 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu May 28, 2020 4:17 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Has there ever been a year with three preseason storms?


1951 had a tropical storm in January, Hurricane Able in May, and a tropical depression also in May.
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Re: Disturbance over the west central Atlantic: (Is INVEST 92L)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 28, 2020 5:09 pm

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