When will Dolly Form?

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When will Dolly form?

Poll ended at Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:04 pm

June 3-10
4
7%
June 11-20
23
38%
June 21-30
24
39%
July 1-10
5
8%
July 11-20
3
5%
July 21-31
2
3%
August and beyond
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 61

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TheStormExpert
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When will Dolly Form?

#1 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:57 am

It's only June 2nd and we now have Cristobal! I'm going with sometime before the month of June is over to see Dolly, that is all I can say for now.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:00 pm

July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:03 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.



Cat 5 long-tracker? :wink:
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:06 pm

Made the poll for the members to vote until June 7 at 1:04 PM EDT when it closes.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#5 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:19 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.



Cat 5 long-tracker? :wink:

hmm, what if edouard forms in the middle of june? would that be a record broken?
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#6 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:52 pm

Since Cristobal is more likely to retain intact in the Gulf, and since there’s not much model support for something coming very soon, I’m going to guess we won’t get Dolly until mid-June. Probably something in the western Caribbean.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#7 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:04 pm

DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.



Cat 5 long-tracker? :wink:

hmm, what if edouard forms in the middle of june? would that be a record broken?


E storm by mid-June? I'd say most certainly. :lol:

(I know I should make a prediction but I have no idea right now. Ummm...maybe July? Sometime?)
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#8 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:27 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:

Cat 5 long-tracker? :wink:

hmm, what if edouard forms in the middle of june? would that be a record broken?


E storm by mid-June? I'd say most certainly. :lol:

(I know I should make a prediction but I have no idea right now. Ummm...maybe July? Sometime?)

same samee
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#9 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:22 pm

I voted June 11-20th. I'm guessing sometime around June 15-16th to be more precise. I do think at some point this record setting early season activity is going to need to take a break so that way the EPAC can have something resembling a season before the ATL most likely takes over again sometime in August for the highest ACE portion of the season.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#10 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:45 pm

25 June in the MDR (unusually early CV system)
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:06 pm

Shell Mound wrote:25 June in the MDR (unusually early CV system)

I'm thinking this too. Maybe the far western MDR. Possibly by mid June.

The MJO will be camped between Phases 1 and 2 for at least the next 2 weeks, and possibly the remainder of June.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?4

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:16 pm

I think we will see development toward the late period in June. I am thinking June 23 , with Dolly forming either in the NW Caribbean or Southern GOM.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#13 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:28 pm

i think more early july but may happen in late june
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:42 pm

DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.



Cat 5 long-tracker? :wink:

hmm, what if edouard forms in the middle of june? would that be a record broken?


Absolutely. The records for the earliest 4th and 5th storms are held by Danielle (June 20, 2016) and Emily (July 11, 2005).
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#15 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:56 am

1:00 p.m. June 21st, 30 miles NNW of La Ceiba Honduras 1003 mg. Will drift north to NNE until a big fat 500 mb ridge builds to the north and forces Dolly to make a hard left turn all the way to just north of Houston where it will landfall as an upper tier Cat 1 hurricane.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#16 Postby FireRat » Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:22 am

Went with June 21-30, probably hits land around 6/25. Most likely a TS or low End 'cane in the GOM/ NW Carib.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#17 Postby Abdullah » Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:55 am

CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.


I mean, it's a pretty specific guess.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#18 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:02 am

While the interaction of of Cristobal with the Yucatan has sent models into quite a tizzy, one thing that seems somewhat consistent across the global guidance and the ensembles is that future Cristobal (especially if it becomes broad and somewhat subtropical in nature) will be helping to supply an ample amount of moisture into a frontal boundary draped across the western Atlantic, beginning probably this weekend and continuing into the week after. This front could stagnate over the area, and any time that happens, it opens up opportunities for mischief along the front, anywhere from off the SE US coast to the waters south of Bermuda. There are sporadic signals in ensemble guidance of various developments on this front, in either tropical or subtropical forms.

I guessed June 11-20, not because I'm confident in anything materializing, but because I think it's our next opportunity for potential Dolly, so hey, why not. At the very least, I'm decently confident we'll get the usual Storm2k thread for some disorganized thunderstorms in the region. The sea surface temperatures would be supportive of something meager if it were to form.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#19 Postby wayne1701 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:50 am

CyclonicFury wrote:July 7th in the MDR, first MDR storm of the season. Weak and short lived but a warning sign for peak.

Every time I make these guesses I am always wrong, so expect something completely different.


You are correct. Active years produce a early cyclone in the MDR. This is my experience from 1971.
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Re: When will Dolly Form?

#20 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:32 pm

Already posted in the 2020 indicators thread, but since this would be Dolly if it forms (which is still a HUGE ‘if’), it’s worth posting here: https://mobile.twitter.com/JackSillin/s ... 8643354625
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