Unofficial Category 5 storms

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Tekken_Guy
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Unofficial Category 5 storms

#1 Postby Tekken_Guy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:13 pm

What high-end Category 4 storms do you think were actually Category 5s that went undetected?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:18 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:What high-end Category 4 storms do you think were actually Category 5s that went undetected?



Igor
Floyd
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#3 Postby zal0phus » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:30 pm

Definitely Igor and Floyd, I also have suspicions that Lenny, Opal, Jose, and 1999's Gert were Category 5s.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#4 Postby Jr0d » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:43 pm

Georges
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:10 am

zal0phus wrote:Definitely Igor and Floyd, I also have suspicions that Lenny, Opal, Jose, and 1999's Gert were Category 5s.


I’d say all of those and possibly Gloria in 1985
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#6 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:13 am

Edouard in 1996 was pretty close and could have been. Joaquin was not far off either
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#7 Postby FireRat » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:55 am

Edouard 1996, I'd also say this beast was a C5, maybe 165 mph.
Floyd 1999 as well, that monster! 160 mph.
Gustav 2008 probably also made it to C5, 165 mph, when it hit western Cuba.
Igor 2010 was close too, maybe 160 mph.
Jose 2017 was another close one, maybe hit 160 mph briefly.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:30 am

There are bunch of the overlooked storms in the EPAC during the 80s. Kiko and Olivia are the first ones come to my mind.

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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#9 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:04 am

Hector ‘18 in the EPac is one I think did get to Cat 5 status (140-145 kt), and I was quite surprised when it wasn’t upgraded to one in post-season analysis.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:43 am

Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#11 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:37 am

1900hurricane wrote:Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.

And don’t forget the modern satellite era too.

*Glares at “120 kt” Typhoon Bualoi with T#7.0 Dvorak appearance and 150 kt from SMAP*
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:42 am

1900hurricane wrote:Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.


1979 seems to be the king of all. You had Tip, 870 mb, and as you mentioned, Judy, and Hope.

Of course those storms are obsolete now.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:43 am

What more with post recon (1987) in the most active and powerful basin in the world?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#14 Postby Nuno » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:11 pm

euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.


1979 seems to be the king of all. You had Tip, 870 mb, and as you mentioned, Judy, and Hope.

Of course those storms are obsolete now.


How is Tip obsolete?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#15 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:31 pm

MoliNuno wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.


1979 seems to be the king of all. You had Tip, 870 mb, and as you mentioned, Judy, and Hope.

Of course those storms are obsolete now.


How is Tip obsolete?

Because there’s a chance one of the post-recon beasts might’ve gotten a lower pressure than 870 mbar, but there’s no way to confirm because we can’t get direct measurements. Some estimates put Haiyan’s minimum pressure at 858 mbar; some of the rapidly intensifying pinhole eye systems like Hagibis could’ve easily earned a spot on the top ten list; other storms almost certainly had lower pressures than the 915 mbar estimate the JTWC loves to slap onto any >T#7.0 system.

If we had recon in the WPac (which should be the case because of how many extremely powerful storms threaten land and how the US still has some military presence in the region), the top 10 strongest TC list would probably include storms like Haiyan, Meranti (unconfirmed 881 mbar landfall), Hagibis, and Nuri. A top 20 list would have these storms likely joined by Halong ‘19, Nida ‘09, Faxai ‘01, Cimaron ‘06, and more.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:03 pm

Like 70% of the EPAC's high end Cat.4's.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#17 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Like 70% of the EPAC's high end Cat.4's.

The NHC went through a weird phase where everything t7.0 got assigned 135 Knots instead for those wondering
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#18 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:12 pm

Some 2010s EPac systems that I suspect hit Cat 5 intensity.

Barbara '19: I don't think I've ever seen a better W ring in the Western Hemisphere. Eye temps got rather high too. Officially 135 kt, but if recon was able to get out that far, I wouldn't be surprised if they found 145 kt.
Image

Hector '18: I believe there was recon data to support a Cat 5 upgrade, but it has remained at 135 kt.
Image

Norman '18: Warm eye within a somewhat ragged W ring. Officially 130 kt, but maybe could've been 140-145 kt.
Image

Hilary '11: Had a very small eye within a solid ring of deep CMG convection. Officially 125 kt, which seems low for a system with this appearance. Did recon ever go into it?
Image
Image

Other Cat 4s that I suspect could've been Cat 5s (but I am doubtful about) include Rosa '18, Fernanda '17 (another compact system), Seymour '16, Olaf '15, and Amanda '14.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:25 pm

:uarrow: Good choices.

Jimena 2009 also a very good candidate.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#20 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Good choices.

Jimena 2009 also a very good candidate.

Jimena’s eye doesn’t look that clear in Dvorak imagery. That’s an issue I’ve had with Fernanda, Seymour, Olaf, Amanda, and Cristina — the CDOs are excellent, and it looks like they have clear eyes, but they’re so small that I have difficulty determining if they’re above 10 C.
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