Unofficial Category 5 storms

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#41 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:24 am

In the Atlantic, Igor, Eta, and Floyd come into mind, and in the EPAC, Hector and Barbara come into mind.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#42 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:08 pm

aspen wrote:Some 2010s EPac systems that I suspect hit Cat 5 intensity.

Barbara '19: I don't think I've ever seen a better W ring in the Western Hemisphere. Eye temps got rather high too. Officially 135 kt, but if recon was able to get out that far, I wouldn't be surprised if they found 145 kt.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2019ep02/4kmsrbdc/2019ep02_4kmsrbdc_201907030220.jpg

Hector '18: I believe there was recon data to support a Cat 5 upgrade, but it has remained at 135 kt.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2018ep10/4kmsrbdc/2018ep10_4kmsrbdc_201808062300.jpg

Norman '18: Warm eye within a somewhat ragged W ring. Officially 130 kt, but maybe could've been 140-145 kt.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2018ep16/4kmsrbdc/2018ep16_4kmsrbdc_201808302300.jpg

Hilary '11: Had a very small eye within a solid ring of deep CMG convection. Officially 125 kt, which seems low for a system with this appearance. Did recon ever go into it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011ep09/4kmsrbdc/2011ep09_4kmsrbdc_201109240015.jpg
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011ep09/1kmirimg/2011ep09_1kmirimg_201109240042.gif

Other Cat 4s that I suspect could've been Cat 5s (but I am doubtful about) include Rosa '18, Fernanda '17 (another compact system), Seymour '16, Olaf '15, and Amanda '14.


Looking at the image, they do like low end Category 5 hurricanes at minimum. They have winds of 140 to 150 knots.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#43 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:08 am

Add Sam to the list.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#44 Postby Hurricane2021 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:45 pm

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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:41 am

Veronica had really cold cloud tops but was lacking in the eye temperature department so it makes sense to go a little lower than Dvorak.

Hilary 11 probably isn’t 150 knots and the only reason I think it may be a Category 5 is because of the viewing angle issues common in that area of the world that lead to an underestimation of eye temperatures from geostationary satellite.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#46 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:35 am

No way to verify with in-situ data, as has been available during the past 30 years…but it’s conceivable that the Great Last Island Hurricane (GLIH) of 1856 was a 140 kt Cat 5.

It hit the SE Louisiana coastline in mid August with an estimated lowest central pressure of 934 mb. The Reanalysis committee set the wind estimate at 130 kt, mainly based on the aforementioned extrapolated pressure reading.

Given it was shown to have a small RMW, the aforementioned pressure could have supported a MSW of 140 kt.

We've seen two hurricanes of very similar intensities strike the same general area, the past two seasons, but each had a RMW larger than what has been assigned to the 1856 hurricane.

Comparing the three respective storms, it appears likely that the GLIH was no weaker than 130 kt, and it’s certainly possible it might’ve even attained Cat 5 strength.

The 12’ storm surge it drove ashore also provides support for an intensity slightly stronger than Ida, as the 1856 storm apparently delivered a larger storm surge than Ida…while possessing a smaller RMW.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#47 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:51 pm

Shell Mound wrote:Add Sam to the list.


Sneaky Sam, he gets better when Recon is gone & weakens while Recon was there!
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#48 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:23 pm

Image
Image
Image
Virgil (1992) in the EPAC featured a tiny, clear “pinhole” eye on high-resolution visible imagery, so it may well have been closer to 140 kt than 115 kt.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:56 pm




We don’t have any good high resolution polar passes of Virgil to detect it’s true eye temperature unfortunately.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#50 Postby Hurricane2021 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:48 am

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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#51 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:24 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:

We don’t have any good high resolution polar passes of Virgil to detect its true eye temperature unfortunately.

Isn’t this image sufficiently resolute?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#52 Postby Hurricane2021 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:47 pm

About this animation of 1982-83 South Pacific Cyclone Season that Force Thirteen produced:
https://youtu.be/aD2MMJje51Q

Well, I never thought they were a reliable source in terms of tropical cyclone analysis, but I found their animation interesting in this video, although they always do these animations and one thing you find a lot on their channel is these things.

---------------------

They analyzed:

The famous and underrated Cyclone Nisha, which is officially considered a minimal C3. they estimated winds of 175 mph (I would say that at least 185 mph also would be a good estimate);

They looked at cyclone Oscar with 160 mph winds, (which I agreed with, although I thought this cyclone could be a little stronger), which is also officially considered a C3 minimum;

They analyzed cyclones Tomasi and Veena with winds of 160 mph (which I agree with, and I suspect this is approximately the actual intensity of these systems(150 - 160 mph). ) Tomasi and Veena aaalso are officialy classified as a minimal C3...

And they also classified the Cyclone Rewa as a Cyclone C4, with winds of 145 mph (which I think is a pretty good estimate, by the way). Officially, Rewa is considered a C2 cyclone
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#53 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:53 am

Any long-tracking major hurricane in the Atlantic could have reached Category-5 status at one or more points in the pre-satellite era. Even today probable Cat-5s in other basins are being underrated, e.g., Hector (2018). So the range of candidates is quite expansive. There were unofficial reports of sub-920-mb pressures in the 1910 Cuba (via ship off western Cuba) and 1915 Galveston (in Cabo San Antonio, Cuba) hurricanes, both of which likely were Cat-5s. Maybe Joan 1988 and Keith 2002 approached Cat-5 status as well.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#54 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:34 pm

I am not surprised that the South Pacific had many Category 5 tropical cyclones.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#55 Postby Foxfires » Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:08 am

A concerning amount of Northwestern Pacific storms. Mostly due to AH77, at least for the recon era, but some are more recent as well, like I think Parma has a good chance of being a category 5. Someone else mentioned Bualoi but that has since been bumped up to 140kt. I know pre-1970s had a bunch of there's-no-way-that's-a-category-5s (just look at the JTWC's 1965 ATCR) so maybe the numbers balance each other out lol?

It's not just the JTWC either, the JMA does it too. Category 5 intensity starts at T#7.0, and the equivalent to that on the Koba table is, I believe, 107kt, usually rounded to 105kt. Remember Rammasun? yeah that's still 90kt/935mb. Remember when I mentioned Bualoi? At least the JTWC upgraded that eventually, JMA still has it at 100kt/935mb.

As for the other basins.. Maybe Sam? pressure 929mb but I heard it probably peaked between recon, and also Sam is pretty small, so even if it didn't maybe 140kt.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#56 Postby 115MphAgatha » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:33 pm

In the WPac I immediately point at Noru, Haishen and Nanmandol as the top 3 recent C4s that shoulda been C5. I mean for god's sake Noru was actually officially one until reanalysis!!!
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:02 pm

Nanmadal 2022. A Cat 4 typhoon with 910 mbar pressure? I've never heard of a Cat 4 cyclone with such a low pressure; I think it should be a solid 5.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#58 Postby Foxfires » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:53 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Nanmadal 2022. A Cat 4 typhoon with 910 mbar pressure? I've never heard of a Cat 4 cyclone with such a low pressure; I think it should be a solid 5.


That's JMA's pressure. JTWC and JMA will have their disagreements. For example, the JTWC thinks Mindulle '21 was 908mb, while I believe JMA went with 920mb. JTWC thinks Nanmadol peaked at 916mb as of now. Reconnaissance indicates 918mb (for a large, high latitude storm), although that may not be at peak. Peak intensity will depend on how quickly it weakened to time of aircraft reconnaissance. Someone on the Nanmadol thread said they expected JMA to raise to 915mb (which they didn't) iirc.

Also 910mb category 4 is a thing. Typhoon Betty 1972 at 910mb. KZC outputs ~130-135kt (depending on ambient pressure (results are for 1005-1010mb) that I don't actually know) for a very large (R34 at 375nm) and high-ish latitude storm, although this probably doesn't apply to Nanmadol. Just wanted to mention.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#59 Postby Foxfires » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:59 am

Foxfires wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Nanmadal 2022. A Cat 4 typhoon with 910 mbar pressure? I've never heard of a Cat 4 cyclone with such a low pressure; I think it should be a solid 5.


That's JMA's pressure. JTWC and JMA will have their disagreements. For example, the JTWC thinks Mindulle '21 was 908mb, while I believe JMA went with 920mb. JTWC thinks Nanmadol peaked at 916mb as of now. Reconnaissance indicates 918mb (for a large, high latitude storm), although that may not be at peak. Peak intensity will depend on how quickly it weakened to time of aircraft reconnaissance. Someone on the Nanmadol thread said they expected JMA to raise to 915mb (which they didn't) iirc.

Also 910mb category 4 is a thing. Typhoon Betty 1972 at 910mb. KZC outputs ~130-135kt (depending on ambient pressure (results are for 1005-1010mb) that I don't actually know) for a very large (R34 at 375nm) and high-ish latitude storm, although this probably doesn't apply to Nanmadol. Just wanted to mention.


Someone on Twitter (@CyanideCN_) mentioned 911mb as the lowest reported pressure, which is lower than the extrapolated pressure, which I believe is referring to 918mb. If this is reliable then I retract my statement; 140kt it is. Although I will say, 7mb lower than the extrapolated pressure from both 700mb and 850mb height is a bit questionable, unless that's a normal deviation?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:02 pm

Recon also didn’t fly at peak.
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