Unofficial Category 5 storms

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Nuno
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#21 Postby Nuno » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:48 pm

aspen wrote:
MoliNuno wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
1979 seems to be the king of all. You had Tip, 870 mb, and as you mentioned, Judy, and Hope.

Of course those storms are obsolete now.


How is Tip obsolete?

Because there’s a chance one of the post-recon beasts might’ve gotten a lower pressure than 870 mbar, but there’s no way to confirm because we can’t get direct measurements. Some estimates put Haiyan’s minimum pressure at 858 mbar; some of the rapidly intensifying pinhole eye systems like Hagibis could’ve easily earned a spot on the top ten list; other storms almost certainly had lower pressures than the 915 mbar estimate the JTWC loves to slap onto any >T#7.0 system.

If we had recon in the WPac (which should be the case because of how many extremely powerful storms threaten land and how the US still has some military presence in the region), the top 10 strongest TC list would probably include storms like Haiyan, Meranti (unconfirmed 881 mbar landfall), Hagibis, and Nuri. A top 20 list would have these storms likely joined by Halong ‘19, Nida ‘09, Faxai ‘01, Cimaron ‘06, and more.


I'd believe Haiyan having a mbar reading close to Tip. Were any ground readings from chasers recorded in the Philippines?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#22 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:13 am

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Good choices.

Jimena 2009 also a very good candidate.

Jimena’s eye doesn’t look that clear in Dvorak imagery. That’s an issue I’ve had with Fernanda, Seymour, Olaf, Amanda, and Cristina — the CDOs are excellent, and it looks like they have clear eyes, but they’re so small that I have difficulty determining if they’re above 10 C.


Recon found 135kt winds before its satellite appearance peaked (if i'm not mistaken or it could be vice-versa) and I remember the NHC saying something that the storm wind estimate at the time (135kts) could be on the lower side.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 pm

Atlantic: Diana 1984, Helene/Joan 1988, Edouard 1996, Floyd 1999, Gustav 2008, Igor 2010, Jose 2017
EPAC: Olivia 1975, Norma 1981, John/Norman/Olivia 1982, Kiko/Tico 1983, Douglas/Elida/Norbert 1984, Max/Otis 1987, Hector 1988, Ismael/Raymond 1989, Hernan/Marie 1990, Kevin/Linda 1991, Frank/Virgil 1992, Dora/Eugene/Kenneth 1993
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#24 Postby Nawtamet » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:19 am

I would vote in favor of Igor 2010 and Jose 2017 as potential CT 5's plus adding Luis '95.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#25 Postby Tekken_Guy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:50 pm

How about the WPAC? I was thinking of storms like Koryn, Babs, Durian, and Parma.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#26 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:16 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:How about the WPAC? I was thinking of storms like Koryn, Babs, Durian, and Parma.

Pinhole eye Parma was absolutely a Cat 5, but it was so compact and so brief that it’s hard to get an idea of how intense it was. Could be anything from a 140 kt system that didn’t have the time to become a true monster with Wilma or Hagibis, or it did briefly reach an insane peak of 160-170 kt.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:57 pm

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Good choices.

Jimena 2009 also a very good candidate.

Jimena’s eye doesn’t look that clear in Dvorak imagery. That’s an issue I’ve had with Fernanda, Seymour, Olaf, Amanda, and Cristina — the CDOs are excellent, and it looks like they have clear eyes, but they’re so small that I have difficulty determining if they’re above 10 C.


Jimena 09 had recon right before peak so it's sort of a unique case.

Fernanda, Seymour never have sustained periods where there were worthy of T7.0 (and the CDO of either was never that solid). Amanda is more iffy but constraints limited a FT of T7.0. Cristina never had a warm enough eye.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:07 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Like 70% of the EPAC's high end Cat.4's.

The NHC went through a weird phase where everything t7.0 got assigned 135 Knots instead for those wondering


No.

The only agencies that I've seen do this are the JTWC and in a couple cases the EPHC.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#29 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:26 pm

I'm confident had recon investigated Igor at peak they would have found a Category 5, especially considering Lorenzo last year had a less impressive satellite signature as one.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#30 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:18 pm

MoliNuno wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Recon Era WPac is full of them. 135 kt/887 mb Judy '79 is probably the most egregious example. 130 kt/898 mb Hope '79 and 130 kt/905 mb Irma '81 are also glaring cases.


1979 seems to be the king of all. You had Tip, 870 mb, and as you mentioned, Judy, and Hope.

Of course those storms are obsolete now.


How is Tip obsolete?



Many historians agree that lack of recon in the WPAC led to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#31 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:57 pm

I know this thread is a bit old, but... I think maybe we can possibly add Eta to this list?
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#32 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:57 pm

I think Kyarr last year in the NIO was likely a Cat 5. With all the upgrades JTWC made for the 2019 WPAC storms, I was a little surprised they didn't upgrade Kyarr as well. Another one is Ambali '19. It peaked so quickly before weakening after an insane ERI so it's difficult to know for sure, especially without any recon. JTWC had it a 135kts but I think it's possible it could have been 140kts briefly. I also think Haishen in the WPAC this year was a Cat 5. We'll see if JTWC upgrades it post season.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#33 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:11 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I think Kyarr last year in the NIO was likely a Cat 5. With all the upgrades JTWC made for the 2019 WPAC storms, I was a little surprised they didn't upgrade Kyarr as well. Another one is Ambali '19. It peaked so quickly before weakening after an insane ERI so it's difficult to know for sure, especially without any recon. JTWC had it a 135kts but I think it's possible it could have been 140kts briefly. I also think Haishen in the WPAC this year was a Cat 5. We'll see if JTWC upgrades it post season.

Ambali was similar to Haishen, where it was originally going to be a Cat 5, but then they revised the best track down to 135 kt, because reasons. I can’t believe they operationally assessed Ambali as a 100 kt Cat 3 at 18z; it had a CDG ring with a clearing, positive-temp, round eye. Easily at least 120 kt then, and likely 140-150 kt at its peak.

Kyarr is yet another one of the JTWC’s poorly handled likely Cat5s. I’m guessing the JTWC doesn’t care about upgrades outside of the WPac. It’s also surprising how they didn’t upgrade it to a 5 operationally despite ADT being around or above T#7.0 for at least 12-18 hours.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#34 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:36 pm

zal0phus wrote:Definitely Igor and Floyd, I also have suspicions that Lenny, Opal, Jose, and 1999's Gert were Category 5s.


I always thought Lenny was Category 5.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#35 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:07 am

Shell Mound wrote:Atlantic: Diana 1984, Helene/Joan 1988, Edouard 1996, Floyd 1999, Gustav 2008, Igor 2010, Jose 2017
EPAC: Olivia 1975, Norma 1981, John/Norman/Olivia 1982, Kiko/Tico 1983, Douglas/Elida/Norbert 1984, Max/Otis 1987, Hector 1988, Ismael/Raymond 1989, Hernan/Marie 1990, Kevin/Linda 1991, Frank/Virgil 1992, Dora/Eugene/Kenneth 1993

Just going to echo the call for Gustav here; it had a measured gust in excess of 180kt - that just doesn't happen with 135kt systems. Not to mention, the satellite appearance was stunning.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#36 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:50 am

Going back and reading the TCR for Jose, I'm thinking Jose may have one of the stronger cases for being a Cat 5 out of the storms mentioned in this thread. The TCR mentions peak flight level winds measured at 146kts by recon with a 142kt SFMR, although it does mention that a lot of the data around that SFMR reading was flagged. However, the flight level winds were not all that different than what was just measured in Iota, and even though some of that data around that 142kt SFMR reading in Jose was flagged, it could show that those winds were making it down to the surface. If that was the case, I could see Jose having a similar peak as to what Iota was in terms of max winds. One thing going against it however, is the pressure. The TCR states that the pressure for Jose was 938mb, which is very high for a Cat 5, although Matthew 2016 was 934mb. I can see why they went 135kts for Jose as it makes sense and is probably the right call, but I think it could be another one of those cases where it could have briefly reached Cat 5 at some point. It's definitely an interesting topic to research for sure.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#37 Postby kevin » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:43 am

An obvious pick and we have to wait for the post-season analysis, but Eta would be a storm I'd add to this list. I know it's easy to say in hindsight since we'll never know for sure so whatever I say can't 100% be disproven, but I think its peak was somewhere in the 140 - 150 kt range with a pressure lower than Iota. Similar to Wilma, I think the EWRC caused very rapid weakening before landfall. Pinhole hurricanes (f.e. Delta & Wilma) seem to degrade way faster during an EWRC than regular hurricanes so even though recon only measured pressure in the 930s when it got to Eta just before landfall, I can imagine that the pressure was in the low 900s at its peak. It's important to mention that together with Irma, Eta's 7.3 CI# is the highest ADT value archieved in the Atlantic in the archive since its inception in 2003. I know ADT is just an estimate, but its shape was so perfect (meteorologically speaking) that it's just hard for me to believe that it never got below at the very least 910 mbar. But as mentioned before, we'll never know for sure. Even if the NHC has the same speculations, there isn't enough concrete data to scientifically support an upgrade to such a low pressure or extreme winds so even if they make it a cat 5 in the post-season I think it'll be something like 140 kts, 915 mbar.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#38 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:24 pm

kevin wrote:An obvious pick and we have to wait for the post-season analysis, but Eta would be a storm I'd add to this list. I know it's easy to say in hindsight since we'll never know for sure so whatever I say can't 100% be disproven, but I think its peak was somewhere in the 140 - 150 kt range with a pressure lower than Iota. Similar to Wilma, I think the EWRC caused very rapid weakening before landfall. Pinhole hurricanes (f.e. Delta & Wilma) seem to degrade way faster during an EWRC than regular hurricanes so even though recon only measured pressure in the 930s when it got to Eta just before landfall, I can imagine that the pressure was in the low 900s at its peak. It's important to mention that together with Irma, Eta's 7.3 CI# is the highest ADT value archieved in the Atlantic in the archive since its inception in 2003. I know ADT is just an estimate, but its shape was so perfect (meteorologically speaking) that it's just hard for me to believe that it never got below at the very least 910 mbar. But as mentioned before, we'll never know for sure. Even if the NHC has the same speculations, there isn't enough concrete data to scientifically support an upgrade to such a low pressure or extreme winds so even if they make it a cat 5 in the post-season I think it'll be something like 140 kts, 915 mbar.

I fully believe Eta was a Cat 5 and I'd also probably say Eta was stronger than Iota. Hopefully the NHC upgrades it post season. The satellite presentation at peak was far better than Iota, and the pressure was bombing when recon left with a 5mb drop between passes during the mission that actually made it to the storm.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#39 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:48 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
kevin wrote:An obvious pick and we have to wait for the post-season analysis, but Eta would be a storm I'd add to this list. I know it's easy to say in hindsight since we'll never know for sure so whatever I say can't 100% be disproven, but I think its peak was somewhere in the 140 - 150 kt range with a pressure lower than Iota. Similar to Wilma, I think the EWRC caused very rapid weakening before landfall. Pinhole hurricanes (f.e. Delta & Wilma) seem to degrade way faster during an EWRC than regular hurricanes so even though recon only measured pressure in the 930s when it got to Eta just before landfall, I can imagine that the pressure was in the low 900s at its peak. It's important to mention that together with Irma, Eta's 7.3 CI# is the highest ADT value archieved in the Atlantic in the archive since its inception in 2003. I know ADT is just an estimate, but its shape was so perfect (meteorologically speaking) that it's just hard for me to believe that it never got below at the very least 910 mbar. But as mentioned before, we'll never know for sure. Even if the NHC has the same speculations, there isn't enough concrete data to scientifically support an upgrade to such a low pressure or extreme winds so even if they make it a cat 5 in the post-season I think it'll be something like 140 kts, 915 mbar.

I fully believe Eta was a Cat 5 and I'd also probably say Eta was stronger than Iota. Hopefully the NHC upgrades it post season. The satellite presentation at peak was far better than Iota, and the pressure was bombing when recon left with a 5mb drop between passes during the mission that actually made it to the storm.

That would be crazy if Eta is upgraded to a Cat 5, because that would be two Cat5s in November after almost a century since the last one.
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Re: Unofficial Category 5 storms

#40 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:45 am

Before satellite, there is 1932 Freeport Hurricane. It had central pressure of 935 millibars and was a small hurricane.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Freeport_hurricane

I would not be surprised if it was a Category 5 hurricane.

I would not be surprise if many of these borderline Category 4/5 hurricane were actually Category 5.
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