Area to watch off Georgia: (Invest 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small non-tropical low pressure system located east of the Georgia
coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over
the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northward overnight
and be located offshore near the South Carolina-North Carolina
border by Tuesday morning. Although environmental conditions are
forecast to be unfavorable for any significant development, this
system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before
it moves inland Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[northjaxpro]

It is attached to a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. seaboard. The Low could meander and draw some influence from the Gulf Stream as the week progresses.

It would not shock me if the system tries to get going. Good mention and yellow circle by NHC.

[floridasun78]

could be short live like tropical storm bertha last 2 hours

[northjaxpro]

Also, you can see clearly the naked low level swirl spinning and actually dropping southward off the Georgia coast on visible satellite imagery.

[cycloneye]

[weathaguyry]

Shear does not look favorable atm, this can clearly be seen in the satellite loop above with any convection racing to the NE

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1272602526374920192

[NDG]

I'm surprised they're giving a 10%, I give it 1%, and that's generous, not only is it non-tropical the mid and upper level winds are ripping through its top.

[floridasun78]

not sure why nhc but circle on that area look bad on sat pic

[northjaxpro]

Upper level shear definitely not favorable over the next 36 hours or so, but NHC is possibly giving some credence to some models showing this to spin up as it eventually moves N/ NNE and gets farther into the North Atlantic as we progress into the later portions of this week.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1272602526374920192

Nice. Bastardi agreeing with the NHC. Maybe there's hope for 2020.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm surprised they're giving a 10%, I give it 1%, and that's generous, not only is it non-tropical the mid and upper level winds are ripping through its top.

Im not.. lol

shear is hell right now.. but as mentioned before.. things change after this loop as it or a secondary circ that may develop near the Bahamas moves NNE...

upper winds will become divergent as that happens and thats when things can spin up quickly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated non-tropical area of low pressure located east of the
Georgia coast is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move
northward overnight and be located offshore near the South
Carolina-North Carolina border by Tuesday morning. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development through Tuesday evening when the low is forecast to
move inland over eastern North Carolina.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions
of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[TheStormExpert]

I'm surprised they're giving a 10%, I give it 1%, and that's generous, not only is it non-tropical the mid and upper level winds are ripping through its top.

I’d give it a .01% chance of developing.

[Ubuntwo]

I'm surprised they're giving a 10%, I give it 1%, and that's generous, not only is it non-tropical the mid and upper level winds are ripping through its top.

I’d give it a .01% chance of developing.

then it's a good thing you don't work for the NHC, stormexpert. they know what they're doing.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm surprised they're giving a 10%, I give it 1%, and that's generous, not only is it non-tropical the mid and upper level winds are ripping through its top.

I’d give it a .01% chance of developing.

then it's a good thing you don't work for the NHC, stormexpert. they know what they're doing.

I was just joking! But seriously this thing doesn’t look good at all.

[FireRat]

It's quite raw for June here in NC, been around 60 all day with rain. I'd imagine some chilly air might get to the storm and keep it from becoming a TS. When Bertha pulled the surprise, it was super warm and muggy here with south winds. Tonight it's quite the opposite, wet and 50s cold with N winds.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94L is up