Northwest GOM Disturbance

[GCANE]

This is arguably one of the biggest MCS's I have seen in the GOM.
Massive influx of 6000+ CAPE air.
Its created its own anticyclone from the huge updraft.

[GCANE]

Lowest surface pressure briefly dipped to 29.78 (1009 mb) but that was right along the coast.
Still no model support so just a lot of T storms and lightning strikes out there in the gulf?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

Buoy SE of Galveston starting to drop

[Kingarabian]

Why no NHC mention?

[toad strangler]

Why no NHC mention?

Well SAL is about to ravage the whole area so maybe that?

[Kingarabian]

Why no NHC mention?

Well SAL is about to ravage the whole area so maybe that?

Hasn't stopped them before.

[Steve]

We are getting a pretty jacked up line of storms but it doesn’t look like the rain shield overall is going to move that far onshore yet.

[gfsperpendicular]

I wonder if the environment is going to will this into TC status, because it's set up really nicely.

[BYG Jacob]

Would peak 2020 be getting the E storm out of this, or this storm being Alicia 2.0?

[northjaxpro]

My initial thinking on this disturbance was that eventually SAL would infiltrate the GOM and put a lid on development. However, FWIW, the latest 18Z GFS run is showing what looks like a surface trough it wants to set up along and just off the Texas coast, and have it linger for the next couple of days. It.does not close off a surface Low in the run, but it is showing quite low barometric.prèssures.in the 1010 -1012 mb range.being forecasted up and along the Texas coast through the next-48 hours.

So, let's see if the GFS is trying to sniiff something out over there during the next couple of days. It is something to watch at least.

[wxman22]

Yes its from the surface vorticity that the models show undergoing cyclogenisis later tonight over southeast Texas and possibly producing significant flooding in some areas overnight/tomorrow morning, the system seems to become a weak inland tropical cyclone as it nears the coast and possibly stalls over the area.Its going to be an interesting night here...

[northjaxpro]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overlooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

[BYG Jacob]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overkooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

This is an instance where I trust meso models

[northjaxpro]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overkooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

[Kingarabian]

Great discussion above.

[sphelps8681]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overkooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

Where will be the most potential of flooding? Live just N of Beaumont.

[BYG Jacob]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overkooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifues.

LOL, just go back from checking the NAM before I saw the notification. Yeah, a torrential amount of rain.

[Steve]

Actually, the 18Z GFS does show a reflection of a closed 1008 mb mb Low in 30 hours up along the upper TX coast near Galveston. I overkooked that earlier. So, it is an area to watch in the immediate short term.

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

All of our weather has been out of the SW which doesn’t happen that much in June except in strong La Niña or El Niño years when that’s the flow.

Maybe storms will fire to the west because of the approaching trough. Idk. But the sal is moving in from the SE. you can barely catch a couple frames heading from visible to geo color

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[BYG Jacob]

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

All of our weather has been out of the SW which doesn’t happen that much in June except in strong La Niña or El Niño years when that’s the flow.

Maybe storms will fire to the west because of the approaching trough. Idk. But the sal is moving in from the SE. you can barely catch a couple frames heading from visible to geo color

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

The NAM shows this will be able to keep the SAL out and will be working within a deep pocket of moisture.

[northjaxpro]

This is an instance where I trust meso models

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the nex t24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

Where will be the most potential of flooding? Live just N of Beaumont.

Well, it would depend upon exactly where the area of Low Pressure would set up and develop . It would be a significant point of convergence potentially for torrential downpours. it will not be moving, almost stationary up through at least the next 36 hours.

Those who live along the Texas coast region, in particular the upper Texas coast I would definitely advise to monitor this carefully in the short term.

[northjaxpro]

Gotta run as I am working late here at my office, but you can clearly see the vigorous vorticity on WV and IR satellite imagery tonight moving through Northeast TX and will probably see cyclogenesis set up somewhere in Southeast Texas or right along or near the vicinity of the upper TX coast within the next 12-24 hours. This I believe will develop quickly.