Borderline Hurricanes

[BadLarry95]

Which strong tropical storms do you think could have been classified as hurricanes?

My opinion (2003-present)

Nicholas 03
Peter 03
Delta 05
Alberto 06
Fay 08
Grace 09
Cindy 11
Beryl 12
Karl 16
Sebastian 19

[AtlanticWind]

Fay

[Hurricanehink]

Barry 01

[Nuno]

Fay definitely.

[northjaxpro]

Fay 2008.

Memorable storm for yours truly. Fay dumped nearly 15 inches of rainfall here at.my locale, with major flooding in Northeast Florida and caused major flooding down across Melbourne and East Central Florida.

Fay intensified crossing over the Everglades and developed an eye feature as it passed by Lake O. I will forever believe that Fay attained hurricane status briefly when it crossed over South Florida.

I still strongly believe Fay should have been among the tropical storm names retired at the very least. This has always bothered me through these past 12 years. Plus Fay made 4 different landfalls on the peninsula. It is still to this day the only recorded cyclone in history to do this!! Amazing storm!!

[Hammy]

Barry 01

Personally I think there was enough data (some chaser instrument measurements, radar estimates, radar presentation) with Barry that it should've been upgraded at least post-analysis.

[northjaxpro]

I want to touch on Beryl on Memorial Day weekend 2012. My.locale was directly impacted by the cyclone as the large CoC moved west across Jacksonville after making landfall at Jacksonville Beach. Beryl made the transition from subtropical to fully tropical after making the loop off the North Csrolina coast and then moved SW then due west by a very strong High Pressure Ridge that built in from the north.

Beryl did intensify on her approach to Jax Beach, and NHC had wind up to 70 mph just before landfall. I have often could make a case that Beryl also could have briefly became a hurricane as well. The center passed over my home station with sustained wind of 56 mph with a gust to 67 mph at its worst.
Beryl made history here in Jax that it was only the second tropical cyclone in the city's history to directly landfall from the east. Hurricane Dore in 1964 was the first. This is very tough here to happen more often due to the configuration (shape)of the coastline here in Northeast Florida. Beryl in 2012 remains the strongest early season cyclone, prior to June 1, to make landfall on the Continental U S.

Beryl moved through at a much quicker pace than Fay in 2008 which kept the flood threat to be much more reduced

My analysis: Both Fay in 2008 and Beryl in 2012 were historic storms. Fay in 2008, moreso in my opinion because of the extreme flooding. I covered and rode through both storms. They are among my most memorable weather events I have covered for sure through the years. I still use the satellite imagery of T.S. Beryl just prior to landfall here as my avatar in my profile.

[toad strangler]

I want to touch on Beryl on Memorial Day weekend 2012. My.locale was directly impacted by the cyclone as the large CoC moved west across Jacksonville after making landfall at Jacksonville Beach. Beryl made the transition from subtropical to fully tropical after making the loop off the North Csrolina coast and then moved SW then due west by a very strong High Pressure Ridge that built in from the north.

Beryl did intensify on her approach to Jax Beach, and NHC had wind up to 70 mph just before landfall. I have often could make a case that Beryl also could have briefly became a hurricane as well. The center passed over my home station with sustained wind of 56 mph with a gust to 67 mph at its worst.
Beryl made history here in Jax that it was only the second tropical cyclone in the city's history to directly landfall from the east. Hurricane Dore in 1964 was the first. This is very tough here to happen more often due to the configuration (shape)of the coastline here in Northeast Florida. Beryl in 2012 remains the strongest early season cyclone, prior to June 1, to make landfall on the Continental U S.

Beryl moved through at a much quicker pace than Fay in 2008 which kept the flood threat to be much more reduced

My analysis: Both Fay in 2008 and Beryl in 2012 were historic storms. Fay in 2008, moreso in my opinion because of the extreme flooding. I covered and rode through both storms. They are among my most memorable weather events I have covered for sure through the years. I still use the satellite imagery of T.S. Beryl just prior to landfall here as my avatar in my profile.

Fay happened the year before I moved to FL but everyone I talk to remembers it as if it was Andrew. The very slow movement and meandering track that had nearly the entire peninsula be inundated with flooding rains. Everybody looks at major hurricane hits or even Cat 1 and 2 hits but its TS like this that can cause WORSE havoc than a major can given the aforementioned factors. More recently TS Imelda caused even worse flooding issues in TX. The winds get all the attention in majors but water does the dirtiest work "under the radar" and are forgotten over time by the majority looking for the wind makers.

[TheAustinMan]

Speaking of Beryls, how about the small and compact Beryl 1982. It's listed in the books as a high-end 70 mph tropical storm at peak, but it was officially a 35 mph tropical depression when the satellite images below were taken. I think the well-defined central dense overcast and faint eye speak for themselves. If the same intensity was assigned with today's data quality and coverage, there would probably be a lot of head scratching. I think Beryl 1982 deserves to be in the exclusive company of tropical cyclones that reached hurricane strength in this region, with Fred 2015 being the most recent case.

1.1 and 1.3 MB. Source: Image data from NOAA CLASS and processed myself.



60 KB. Source: The HURSAT image directory

[CrazyC83]

Speaking of Beryls, how about the small and compact Beryl 1982. It's listed in the books as a high-end 70 mph tropical storm at peak, but it was officially a 35 mph tropical depression when the satellite images below were taken. I think the well-defined central dense overcast and faint eye speak for themselves. If the same intensity was assigned with today's data quality and coverage, there would probably be a lot of head scratching. I think Beryl 1982 deserves to be in the exclusive company of tropical cyclones that reached hurricane strength in this region, with Fred 2015 being the most recent case.

1.1 and 1.3 MB. Source: Image data from NOAA CLASS and processed myself.
https://i.imgur.com/M5pvRRO.png
https://i.imgur.com/L2eQkcg.png

60 KB. Source: The HURSAT image directory
https://i.imgur.com/vHpF0kH.png

Looking at those images, with the eye and deep cloud tops, that looks like T4.5 to T5.0 for me. I'd say 85 kt for the intensity there (pressure 981 mb).

[Nuno]

When is the reanalysis project going to do 80s storms? Beryl '82 should definitely be up to hurricane strength

[Hammy]

When is the reanalysis project going to do 80s storms? Beryl '82 should definitely be up to hurricane strength

Judging by the rate they've gone at so far and the increasing amount of data to work with I'd guess it could take about 5-10 more years since 1966-70 seems like it'll be the next batch and the preliminary was a year or two ago.

[doomhaMwx]

How about (Sub)tropical storm Omeka near the Int'l Dateline in Dec 2010? Omeka probably reached typhoon intensity in the WPAC (at the time of the images below) before moving over the CPAC, but JMA/JTWC basically ignored it. SAB even gave it a dvorak rating of T4.5 at one point.

Topic/page about Omeka: viewtopic.php?f=72&t=110121