Possible Development off the East Coast

[Ubuntwo]

Created since there's been some model consistency, with the EPS signalling for development as soon as 3 days out.
0z EPS:

0z Euro:

0z UKM:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


A low pressure area is expected to form in a few days off of the
southeastern coast of the United States. Some additional
development of this system could then occur as it moves generally
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheStormExpert]

Just like with Dolly wouldn’t this have the same issue with cooler SST’s? Therefore it would have to remain over the Gulfstream.

[aspen]

It would be crazy if we get Edouard by the first days of July. That would shatter the record of the earliest E storm (held by Emily ‘05) by over a week and a half.

[TheAustinMan]

The low-level precursor to this possible system is a shortwave trough currently moving across the Ohio River Valley and producing thunderstorms over Kentucky this morning and afternoon:

912 KB. Source: Storm Prediction Center Mesoanalysis

[Nuno]

It would be crazy if we get Edouard by the first days of July. That would shatter the record of the earliest E storm (held by Emily ‘05) by over a week and a half.

Nowhere near the ACE that 2005 already had, but certainly ominous for what's to come.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1277295644022013952

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

A low pressure area is expected to form in a couple of days off of
the southeastern coast of the United States. Some additional
development of this system could then occur as it moves generally
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

Of course the UKMET and Euro drop this after NHC mentions it.

[aspen]

Of course the UKMET and Euro drop this after NHC mentions it.

NHC: look, here’s something that might develop in a few days

UKMET/ECMWF: my job here is done

[Ubuntwo]

For once the GFS shows something. A short-lived system develops with a shallow warm core before transitioning, just under four days out.

0z CMC is back to development as well. Maybe we'll see something from this after all?

[cycloneye]

2. A trough of low pressure has formed along the coast of North
Carolina. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated while it generally moves northeastward, away from the
east coast of the United States and becomes absorbed Wednesday into
a frontal boundary currently located east of the Mid-Atlantic
states.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

Yet another phantom storm by the Euro that goes down the drain.

[toad strangler]

Yet another phantom storm by the Euro that goes down the drain.

Who wants to see a system roll off the mainland US E coast anyway? That's just all sorts of no thanks in my tropical play book

[South Texas Storms]

Yet another phantom storm by the Euro that goes down the drain.

Yep, the Euro has definitely been struggling lately, not only in tropics either. The Euro will be undergoing a significant upgrade starting with the 0z suite tonight. Hopefully we see some nice improvements from it soon.

[NDG]

Yet another phantom storm by the Euro that goes down the drain.

Yep, the Euro has definitely been struggling lately, not only in tropics either. The Euro will be undergoing a significant upgrade starting with the 0z suite tonight. Hopefully we see some nice improvements from it soon.

We shall see, hopefully so. There has never been an Euro like during the Atlantic 2008 hurricane season, it was so accurate within its 5-6 day range and never showed any phantom storms developing.

[TheStormExpert]

Yet another phantom storm by the Euro that goes down the drain.

Yep, the Euro has definitely been struggling lately, not only in tropics either. The Euro will be undergoing a significant upgrade starting with the 0z suite tonight. Hopefully we see some nice improvements from it soon.

We shall see, hopefully so. There has never been an Euro like during the Atlantic 2008 hurricane season, it was so accurate within its 5-6 day range and never showed any phantom storms developing.

The Euro has seen better days. Hopefully this upgrade will help improve it.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Is it the fact it needs an upgrade or the fact that flights are likely still highly reduced from the pandemic and it is struggling without all that additional data?

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[wxman57]

The area offshore GA/SC is the place to watch for possible development early next week. Not a high chance, but the only chance for the Atlantic over the next week or two. Any such development should track out to sea to the east. Could threaten Bermuda or Newfoundland.

[OuterBanker]

I think a round of Rock, Paper, Scissors between the Gulf and SEUS on which will form first is in order. (Yes, I posted on each forum).
I’ll go with SEUS (without prejudice of course).