When will the first Hurricane form?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:15 am

I voted August 1-10. Poll will be open for the members to vote until July 5 at 9:15 AM.

Shell Mound · #2 Postby **Shell Mound** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:14 am

September and beyond (almost akin to 1961), but the season will still end up being highly eventful.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:40 am

Shell Mound wrote:September and beyond (almost akin to 1961), but the season will still end up being highly eventful.

But you said in the thread about the rest of season that Gonzalo forms on late August. Which it is?

CyclonicFury · #4 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:46 am

August 3, western Gulf of Mexico, Category 1 hurricane (Fay).

Shell Mound · #5 Postby **Shell Mound** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:58 am

cycloneye wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:September and beyond (almost akin to 1961), but the season will still end up being highly eventful.

But you said in the thread about the rest of season that Gonzalo forms on late August. Which it is?

Gonzalo forms in late August but reaches hurricane status in September.

CyclonicFury · #6 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:59 am

Shell Mound wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:September and beyond (almost akin to 1961), but the season will still end up being highly eventful.

But you said in the thread about the rest of season that Gonzalo forms on late August. Which it is?

Gonzalo forms in late August but reaches hurricane status in September.

Out of curiosity, why do you expect August to be so quiet? Do you think it will be like the last two years where tropical waves exit Africa too far north to develop?

Shell Mound · #7 Postby **Shell Mound** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:06 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
But you said in the thread about the rest of season that Gonzalo forms on late August. Which it is?

Gonzalo forms in late August but reaches hurricane status in September.

Out of curiosity, why do you expect August to be so quiet? Do you think it will be like the last two years where tropical waves exit Africa too far north to develop?

Yes, the very strong WAM/AEJ will likely result in waves exiting too far north in several cases, though not all. Also, I think the TUTT will be strong through most of August, given the warm pool in the Northwestern Atlantic, along with the likelihood of further SAL outbreaks and cooling of the MDR/Caribbean through the end of July. I’m starting to think that this year will feature a relatively low number of named storms, but an unusually high ratio of the hurricanes that do form will become intense, including a number of notable landfalls, owing in part to the strong Bermuda High and very high TCHP/OHC beneath the surface of the deep tropics.

aspen · #8 Postby **aspen** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:23 pm

I put July 21-31. We’ll have Edouard early in the month from that frontal system; Fay will become the season’s first MDR system and become a minimal hurricane, comparable to Beryl ‘18.

Hammy · #9 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:22 pm

Late August. I can easily see this year playing out like 1996 save for Bertha/Cesar type storms--both of which were very rare to have occurred when and where they did in the first place.

FireRat · #10 Postby **FireRat** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:06 pm

Voted July 1-10 lol, despite the Sal. I also think the season will be similar to 1996, and still have a hunch we may see a hurricane sneak in around July 8-9 which were the dates that 1996 Bertha was the season's first major. Maybe this time it forms off the Carolinas, instead of the MDR.

#11 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:58 am

July 1-10.

It will happen next week off either the Southeast U.S. or Mid-Atlantic coast with Edouard..

ouragans · #12 Postby **ouragans** » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:16 am

End of July from the 2nd NS, and becoming the first major

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am

Poll has closed for voting.

#14 Postby **chaser1** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:08 am

Anyone happen to know how far back we need to go where there were six named T.S.'s without having a hurricane yet?

Siker · #15 Postby **Siker** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:09 am

chaser1 wrote:Anyone happen to know how far back we need to go where there were six named T.S.'s without having a hurricane yet?

2013 (7), then 2011 (8). 2017 had 5.

#16 Postby **chaser1** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:18 am

Siker wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Anyone happen to know how far back we need to go where there were six named T.S.'s without having a hurricane yet?

2013 (7), then 2011 (8). 2017 had 5.

Thanks Siker. Interesting how this seem's to be a relatively recent occurrence. Then again, i'd assume there must be one or two years during the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's or 90's where this occurred. If not, then I find it that much more interesting.

CyclonicFury · #17 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:08 pm

July 21-31, the most voted option, turned out to be correct.

aspen · #18 Postby **aspen** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:20 pm

aspen wrote:I put July 21-31. We’ll have Edouard early in the month from that frontal system; Fay will become the season’s first MDR system and become a minimal hurricane, comparable to Beryl ‘18.

Well this aged poorly lol. Gonzalo turned out to be the late July tiny MDR storm I anticipated, but Hanna was the first hurricane. At least I got the timing right.

FireRat · #19 Postby **FireRat** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:06 pm

aspen wrote:
aspen wrote:I put July 21-31. We’ll have Edouard early in the month from that frontal system; Fay will become the season’s first MDR system and become a minimal hurricane, comparable to Beryl ‘18.

Well this aged poorly lol. Gonzalo turned out to be the late July tiny MDR storm I anticipated, but Hanna was the first hurricane. At least I got the timing right.

Aged better IMO, the timing was dead on (7/25 smack in the middle of the range). Name predictions are crap shoots, especially if short-lived little storms squeak in, stealing names.of would-be monsters lol.