NE of Bahamas (Invest 97L is up)

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a llc has formed.. watch to see if it can rotate south more into the convection. There could also be another vort in the convection which is why the exposed vort is dropping SW. also looks like it has even detached a little more from the trough..

if convection builds near that llc.. we could see this happen quickly.

[northjaxpro]

The 850 mb vorticity with this area is quite impressive.

This system, if it detaches from the trough boundary, is poised to take off with development.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like this boundary is going to spin multiple areas over the next week.

Please keep this thread focused on just this area to keep any confusion to a minimum.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a MLC forming with the heaviest convection. I can see inflow on all sides except SE side. Also looks like outflow is establishing over it

[aspen]

Wow, that started looking very decent very quickly. It’s a little hard to tell exactly where it’s moving, but while it is currently over warm waters, it’ll likely miss the Gulf Stream. Maybe it can become a named storm if it detaches from the front quickly.

[CronkPSU]

any thoughts on which ay it could be moving....fireworks already cancelled...Florida could use some trop storm rains (and keep people off the beach)

[toad strangler]

any thoughts on which ay it could be moving....fireworks already cancelled...Florida could use some trop storm rains (and keep people off the beach)

Whatever comes of this it won't be coming to FL. Most likely off to the ENE or so

[Aric Dunn]

any thoughts on which ay it could be moving....fireworks already cancelled...Florida could use some trop storm rains (and keep people off the beach)

Well currently it is stuck in a bit of a COL. but should move to the NE>.


and no need to worry about rain.. there will be a lot of rain over the weekend with the trough stalled over florida.

[aspen]

Levi is keeping an eye on this too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... 4190801920

[Aric Dunn]

I would be pretty shocked if this was not at least mentioned at 2pm from the NHC.

[Kazmit]

It's been pouring all day here because of this. I'm surprised there's no mention from the NHC.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1279110480867414019

[TheStormExpert]

It’s in a light shear environment with an anticyclone just to its NE.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1279110480867414019

[northjaxpro]

I think the center reformation is already in progress. The exposed vort which was clearly visible on imagery has now traversed southwest and is increasingly moved back toward the deeper convection, which to me looks to be trying to establish a new circulation center. Another very telling indicator I am seeing is that the upper level outflow has really improved over the system since earlier this morning. I am noting cirrus outflow very well on.WV and visible imagery. This system is looking better and better às time progresses.

[aspen]

I’m starting to see some CCW circulation around the central blob of convection. This might be on its way to becoming a classifiable system, assuming something doesn’t disrupt it.

[Ubuntwo]

I’m starting to see some CCW circulation around the central blob of convection. This might be on its way to becoming a classifiable system, assuming something doesn’t disrupt it.

EPS has been somewhat enthusiastic with this becoming a TD for the past couple days. It has maybe another 24 hours of decent conditions.

[South Texas Storms]

I mentioned this area on our Atlantic Briefing product this morning that goes out to our clients and gave it a 20% chance of development. Now I think those chances are near 30%. The main impact will be heavy rainfall across Bermuda over the next few days.

I'm pretty surprised this didn't even get a mention from the NHC yet.

[Nimbus]

My first thought was that the surface circulation was north of the convection and the shear would win, but its pretty common for multiple vorts to form and Levi mentioned a mesovort reforming further south.

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection building right under that strong MLC. with some low level inflow.. center reformation looks to be happening.