2020 TCRs

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Weather Dude
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#41 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Cristobal is up.

And it looks like a slight downgrade for the first peak to 50kts. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure it was 55kts operationally.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#42 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:14 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Cristobal is up.

And it looks like a slight downgrade for the first peak to 50kts. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure it was 55kts operationally.

It was always 50 kts, the second peak actually got a boost from 45 to 50 kts.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:25 pm

Tropical Storm Julio is up. This storm formed from the remnants from what was Hurricane Nana in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:30 pm

Tropical Storms Dolly and Josephine reports are up.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#45 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:19 pm

aspen wrote:At this rate, we should see Dolly’s TCR within the next two weeks (Cristobal will likely take longer due to its 9-day life span and multiple land impacts). I’m excited to see if the NHC bumps up Dolly’s peak intensity, which I think was around 50-55 kt.

This aged well :lol:
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#46 Postby aspen » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:17 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
aspen wrote:At this rate, we should see Dolly’s TCR within the next two weeks (Cristobal will likely take longer due to its 9-day life span and multiple land impacts). I’m excited to see if the NHC bumps up Dolly’s peak intensity, which I think was around 50-55 kt.

This aged well :lol:

My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

In all seriousness, I’m surprised it was kept at 40 kt. Maybe there just wasn’t enough time for its winds to catch up with its satellite presentation.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#47 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:21 pm

aspen wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:
aspen wrote:At this rate, we should see Dolly’s TCR within the next two weeks (Cristobal will likely take longer due to its 9-day life span and multiple land impacts). I’m excited to see if the NHC bumps up Dolly’s peak intensity, which I think was around 50-55 kt.

This aged well :lol:

My disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined.

In all seriousness, I’m surprised it was kept at 40 kt. Maybe there just wasn’t enough time for its winds to catch up with its satellite presentation.

Dvorak estimates for Dolly were quite low (SAB at T1.5 and TAFB at T2.5). ASCAT showed maximum sustained winds just under 40 kt. SATCON was somewhat higher and supported a 50 kt intensity. Overall, using a blend of all data, 40 kt seems about right, maybe a case for 45 kt can be made.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#48 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:54 am

I believe Hurricane Hannah will get a bump to category two. I may very well be wrong but it was quite an impressive system at landfall with an eye clearing out but more importantly a pressure of 972, a borderline cat two. 85 knots is reasonable in my opinion but yet again I may be wrong.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#49 Postby Fancy1001 » Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:02 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I believe Hurricane Hannah will get a bump to category two. I may very well be wrong but it was quite an impressive system at landfall with an eye clearing out but more importantly a pressure of 972, a borderline cat two. 85 knots is reasonable in my opinion but yet again I may be wrong.



Hannah joined the list of storms that would have been a hell of a lot worse if it had had one more day to strengthen.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#50 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 29, 2021 8:15 am

I've been thinking about hurricane Epsilon. The storm was large so its lower wind speeds could be attributed to the lower environmental pressure yet I still believe it may have peaked at 105 knots instead of 110. Sure it didn't have a very cold CDO but the pressure of 951 millibars speaks for itself.
It was a typo I did mean 100 knots getting a bump to 105 knots.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#51 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:42 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I've been thinking about hurricane Epsilon. The storm was large so its lower wind speeds could be attributed to the lower environmental pressure yet I still believe it may have peaked at 105 knots instead of 110. Sure it didn't have a very cold CDO but the pressure of 951 millibars speaks for itself.

Considering that the official peak is 100kt and the recon data supported 95-100kt (which was relatively consistent and at least captured parts of the peak), I highly doubt that there is much of a change in peak intensity for Epsilon.

It's somewhat likely that there are some adjustments made while the storm was on its slow weakening trend to correct for observed differences between the estimates given and the stronger/lower pressure buoy and scatterometer readings after passing by Bermuda. I don't see much else changing when Epsilon's TCR comes out.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#52 Postby aspen » Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:07 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I've been thinking about hurricane Epsilon. The storm was large so its lower wind speeds could be attributed to the lower environmental pressure yet I still believe it may have peaked at 105 knots instead of 110. Sure it didn't have a very cold CDO but the pressure of 951 millibars speaks for itself.

Considering that the official peak is 100kt and the recon data supported 95-100kt (which was relatively consistent and at least captured parts of the peak), I highly doubt that there is much of a change in peak intensity for Epsilon.

It's somewhat likely that there are some adjustments made while the storm was on its slow weakening trend to correct for observed differences between the estimates given and the stronger/lower pressure buoy and scatterometer readings after passing by Bermuda. I don't see much else changing when Epsilon's TCR comes out.

It’ll probably get an ACE bump, because I see two major changes to its intensity duration:
1.) it was stronger earlier in the day it peaked as a Cat 3, prior to when recon arrived, and was a hurricane earlier
2.) it weakened slower prior to passing over the buoy that recorded a sub-960 mbar pressure
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:01 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I believe Hurricane Hannah will get a bump to category two. I may very well be wrong but it was quite an impressive system at landfall with an eye clearing out but more importantly a pressure of 972, a borderline cat two. 85 knots is reasonable in my opinion but yet again I may be wrong.


I never saw any conclusive data supporting higher than 80 kt for Hanna, but imagine if it had another 12-24 hours over water...
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#54 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I believe Hurricane Hannah will get a bump to category two. I may very well be wrong but it was quite an impressive system at landfall with an eye clearing out but more importantly a pressure of 972, a borderline cat two. 85 knots is reasonable in my opinion but yet again I may be wrong.


I never saw any conclusive data supporting higher than 80 kt for Hanna, but imagine if it had another 12-24 hours over water...

See my previous comment
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:32 pm

Several more TCR's came out today.

As expected, the genesis of STS Alpha moved back about 30 hours. Intensity (as an STS) kept at 45 kt.

Wilfred kept at 35 kt. Probably deserved a bit more - I'd have gone up to 45 kt based on the ASCAT, small size and convective increase shortly thereafter - but there is an uncertainty range.

Omar kept at 35 kt and reasonable based on data.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:52 am

Tropical Storm Iselle is up. Peak was 50kts.

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#57 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:03 am

Seems like they are picking up the pace with these reports.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#58 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:42 pm

I just noticed that Tropical Storm Boris got posted.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#59 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:05 am

Here's the link to the aforementioned Boris's TCR.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:59 am

The report of Tropical Storm Gonzalo is up. Peaked at 55 kts.

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