2020 TCRs

[NotoSans]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

[InfernoFlameCat]

Im going to flip out if Iota gets downgraded to Cat 4.

[Iceresistance]

There is TOO much Recon evidence for Iota to be a CAT 5 . . .

[AnnularCane]

Im going to flip out if Iota gets downgraded to Cat 4.

Get ready to flip out. But gee, why did they do that?

[GrayLancer18]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

And now the page is gone

[NotoSans]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

And now the page is gone

NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

And now the page is gone

NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

[Iceresistance]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

And now the page is gone

NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.

Not 100% finalized, but I do agree on Eta at 155 mph & Laura to be at 150 mph . . .

[GrayLancer18]

And now the page is gone

NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.

[aspen]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.

[Iceresistance]

NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.

Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.

Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?

Maybe they were thinking the 143 kt SFMR was contaminated by rain or something?

EDIT: just looked back at recon data I saved. Two eyewall passes found 140-150 kt FL winds and 140-145 kt SFMR winds. These were unflagged and did not correlate with extremely high rainfall rates. Therefore, this should be enough evidence to keep Iota as a 140 kt Cat 5, and as much as I think Eta could’ve briefly been a Cat 5 at its peak, Iota has far more direct evidence supporting >135 kt.

[Iceresistance]

So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.

Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?

Maybe they were thinking the 143 kt SFMR was contaminated by rain or something?

Was it flagged during one of the missions that proved that Iota was a CAT 5?

Can I see that 143 knot SFMR if it was flagged while on the mission or not?

[ElectricStorm]

If they downgrade Iota, then they might as well go right back to the 2016 files and downgrade Matthew as well... But maybe it was just a typo because I really don't see how they could downgrade it.

[NotoSans]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.

Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.

So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.

[aspen]

NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf

- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt

Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.

Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.

So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.

However, SFMR was showing 140-145 kt winds even without high rain rates, and it found Cat 5 surface and FL winds in two consecutive passes through the eye with dropping pressure. This suggests FL winds were mixing rather well down to the surface, so the standard reduction factor for 700 mb to surface winds would be an underestimate.

[cycloneye]

Here is the twit.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

[Iceresistance]

Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.

Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.

So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.

However, SFMR was showing 140-145 kt winds even without high rain rates, and it found Cat 5 surface and FL winds in two consecutive passes through the eye with dropping pressure. This suggests FL winds were mixing rather well down to the surface, so the standard reduction factor for 700 mb to surface winds would be an underestimate.
https://i.imgur.com/Az6zqpe.jpg

There is probably enough evidence for Iota as a CAT 5 storm on Surface & FL winds . . .

[aspen]

Here is the twit.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

They’re saying the intensities haven’t been finalized, but do not specify individual storms. Therefore, I think it’s safe to assume most or all of the four remaining storms will not have the same peak winds in their finalized TCRs as they did on that table, but that raises the question as to why the table was put up in the first place if the TCRs aren’t even done yet. It may suggest that they are coming soon, but probably not within the next few days.

It would be very odd if the NHC keeps Zeta as a Cat 2 and downgrades Iota while raising Eta’s peak at the same time. Eta had less direct evidence for increasing its peak than Zeta or Iota.

[ncforecaster89]

Here is the twit.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528

They’re saying the intensities haven’t been finalized, but do not specify individual storms. Therefore, I think it’s safe to assume most or all of the four remaining storms will not have the same peak winds in their finalized TCRs as they did on that table, but that raises the question as to why the table was put up in the first place if the TCRs aren’t even done yet. It may suggest that they are coming soon, but probably not within the next few days.

It would be very odd if the NHC keeps Zeta as a Cat 2 and downgrades Iota while raising Eta’s peak at the same time. Eta had less direct evidence for increasing its peak than Zeta or Iota.

As you noted, it’s hard to conceptualize why that chart was posted given the subsequent tweet that was made. Even more confusing, why did they have altered intensities for ETA and IOTA on the chart? Unless those amended intensities are the way they’re leaning, it really makes very little sense. Like you, I’d be surprised if they downgraded IOTA.

All that said, it’s important to acknowledge that there may be additional data we aren’t yet privy to that could justify such adjustments...if they actually make those changes.