2020 TCRs

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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#121 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:56 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.

That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306107100456792064


The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.

Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.

Personally, I don’t think a single piece of data will be sufficient for the NHC to upgrade Sally to 100 knots. Other than the profiled winds in the sonde, other data, including satellite estimates, radar data, and surface (including marine) observations, do not really support Cat-3 status. I do think that the TCR will increase the MSW slightly, from 90 → 95 knots, but Sally will likely go on record as a high-end Cat-2 prior to and during landfall. On the other hand, I think there is a far stronger case to be presented for upgrading Zeta from 95 → 100 knots, given solid support from both aircraft and NEXRAD. So in the end 2020 will likely tie 2005’s record total of seven MH.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#122 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:49 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:


The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.

Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.


Personally, I don’t think a single piece of data will be sufficient for the NHC to upgrade Sally to 100 knots. Other than the profiled winds in the sonde, other data, including satellite estimates, radar data, and surface (including marine) observations, do not really support Cat-3 status. I do think that the TCR will increase the MSW slightly, from 90 → 95 knots, but Sally will likely go on record as a high-end Cat-2 prior to and during landfall. On the other hand, I think there is a far stronger case to be presented for upgrading Zeta from 95 → 100 knots, given solid support from both aircraft and NEXRAD. So in the end 2020 will likely tie 2005’s record total of seven MH.


I can see it tilting either way at 95 kt or 100 kt, I don't think this is a clear cut situation either way. As we're interested in maximum winds, those are only going to be confined to a narrow area, so undersampling is something to consider as well.

One of the main reasons why the NHC stuck with 90 kt as the max intensity operationally is because they weren't sure that the 110 kt FL winds at 700 mb were making it down to the surface. However, the dropsonde is clear evidence that winds from the mid-levels were in fact mixing down quite successfully down to the surface. Therefore, this reason for not applying the standard 0.9 700 mb FL wind conversion seems questionable when you take that into account. These 110 kt FL winds were shortly before landfall.

I am really interested to see what their detailed radar analysis shows, as there were some radar bins that were once again, on the border between high-end Category 2, and low-end Category 3. More specifically, the ~140 mph (~121-122 kt) bins found at around ~4k feet, which would once again support a surface wind of ~96-98 kt when you take conversions into account, right at the edge of the Category 2/3 thresholds. The conversion for 4k feet (~1200 meters) is around ~0.80-0.81, using Fig. 8 from Franklin, Black, & Valde (2003).

Once you have in situ observations of a storm system, satellite estimates for intensity become much less important. Hurricane Earl in 1998 was a Category 2 hurricane with an exposed low-level center.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#123 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:29 am

I think Sally will be something like Michael; a very small coverage of Cat 3 force winds may have been present. I still think it is like a 50/50 over whether it gets upgraded. Personally I think it was Cat 2 95knots.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#124 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:11 pm

Epsilon and Theta are up now, with little to no change for both (no hurricane Theta). Strangely the report for Theta is missing the intensity section for some reason.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#125 Postby aspen » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:23 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Epsilon and Theta are up now, with little to no change for both (no hurricane Theta). Strangely the report for Theta is missing the intensity section for some reason.

No change in peak intensity for Epsilon, and I think the new best track has given it some more ACE.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#126 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:31 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Epsilon and Theta are up now, with little to no change for both (no hurricane Theta). Strangely the report for Theta is missing the intensity section for some reason.


Down to 8 TCRs left for the Atlantic, (Isaias, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma, Eta, Zeta, & Iota).
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#127 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:46 pm

Only 8 left? For some reason it feels like there should be more.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#128 Postby ClarCari » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:10 am

AnnularCane wrote:Only 8 left? For some reason it feels like there should be more.

I’m actually shocked by there being still 8 left. 2020 was just insane. Pretty much every other season would’ve had every TCR released by now.

I have a feeling Gamma and Teddy are next before the other storms. Their data is alot smaller than Isaias and Sally.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#129 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:15 pm

ClarCari wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Only 8 left? For some reason it feels like there should be more.

I’m actually shocked by there being still 8 left. 2020 was just insane. Pretty much every other season would’ve had every TCR released by now.

I have a feeling Gamma and Teddy are next before the other storms. Their data is alot smaller than Isaias and Sally.


One of the things the NHC is most likely double checking is to see how much of the 117 kt flight level wind with Isaias actually mixed down. This occurred where there was almost no convection, so mixing of this wind down to the surface was likely very limited. My guess is the 75 kt intensity is pretty close, but they are probably double checking just to be sure.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#130 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:12 am

Isaias out.
 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1382331895892037634




Also Genevieve and Odalys have been released, meaning EPAC has been completed.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#131 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:27 am

Looks like they believe there was some amount of greater mixing at landfall, as they've upped Isaias's peak intensity to 80kt/986 mb.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#132 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:31 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Looks like they believe there was some amount of greater mixing at landfall, as they've upped Isaias's peak intensity to 80kt/986 mb.

I was suspecting it would be upgraded to 986 mbar, because that was the pressure Mark Sudduth recorded at the landfall point.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#133 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:19 am

Interesting that the winds for Isaias were bumped up slightly, that makes its wind speed at landfall in North Carolina stronger than Irene (80 kt vs 75 kt).

Isaias was one of the worst impacting storms for my hometown in New Jersey in recent memory, countless trees and wires down, with a power pole completely snapped just down the street. Minor structural damage as well to some houses. Will be very strange to have such a high impacting storm's name used again.

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#134 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am

Every storm has an impact, near every storm will create a life altering experience if it makes landfall. Zeta killed two people I knew in Buford Ga where I live yet it was not retired. It destroyed homes near me and to see that not retired(well I guess it was retired because it was greek and we do not use z storms.) officially is a little upsetting. I agree ColdMiser though.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#135 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:32 am

80 kt seems reasonable for the intensity at landfall for Isaias. I know the flight-level winds were extremely high but not mixing down well. But the 75 kt SFMR reading is the obvious floor and I think radar supported about 80 kt as well.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#136 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:51 am

Sally & Zeta are going to be a borderline case between either a Hurricane or a Major Hurricane at Landfall . . .

Both operationally at a CAT 2 storm (Zeta at 110 mph & Sally at 105 mph), but can be upgraded to a CAT 3 since they likely peaked at landfall & both had a clear eye at landfall as well . . .

Cindy in 2005 & Ericka in 2003 was operationally a TS at landfall (Cindy over Louisiana & Ericka over Mexico), but closer inspection & analysis showed brief hurricane strength at landfall . . .
Last edited by Iceresistance on Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#137 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:54 am

If they both get it would that be a record number of Major hurricane landfalls or does 2004 still hold that record?(I think I am not sure it does)
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#138 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:54 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:If they both get it would that be a record number of Major hurricane landfalls or does 2004 still hold that record?(I think I am not sure it does)

If Sally and Zeta both get upgraded to Cat 3s, 2020 would surpass 2005 for the highest major hurricane total of a single season.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#139 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:20 pm

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#140 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:24 pm

This is very interesting from the Sally TCR:

Recent research suggests that for a hurricane of Sally’s intensity and structure, SFMR undersampling of the peak
winds could have been as much as 8%.


So essentially, the low SFMR values relative to other metrics may have been due to undersampling as opposed to issues with the SFMR values themselves.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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